SF Giants pitching prospects week in review (8/1-8/21)

Make sure to revisit our weekly SF Giants prospect rundowns to keep up with each of the organization’s minor-league affiliates. If you do not feel well acclimated to the prospects throughout the farm system, you might want to revisit our prospect week articles that detailed the system from the top prospects to lower-level fringes. If you’re just interested in the biggest names, then the preseason SF Giants top 31 prospects list is the one-stop-shop for you.

After taking a couple of weeks off, I will be covering the past three weeks of action. Marc’s new mid-season top prospects list is dropping soon so stay tuned for it as well!

SF Giants Prospects Weekly Rundown: Triple-A

Notable Performers

Sean Hjelle: 2 G, 2 GS, 1 W, 12.1 IP, 16 H, 7 R (7 ER), 6 BB, 3 K, 5.11 ERA
Norwith Gudino: 2 G, 2 GS, 1 W, 8 IP, 6 H, 2 R (2 ER), 2 BB, 7 K, 2.25 ERA
Sammy Long: 3 G, 2 GS, 3 H, 2 R (2 ER), 5 BB, 10 K, 2.08 ERA

Sean Hjelle is ready for a new challenge in pitching in the hitter-friendly Triple-A West after pitching well for Richmond. After a strong Sacramento debut, he got roughed up in his second start in Salt Lake. For a guy known to rely more on inducing groundballs rather than sheer stuff, Triple-A West could prove to be a tough challenge for Hjelle when he is pitching on the road. Hjelle is inducing a 65% groundball rate across two starts which is great, but inducing more swing and miss could be the goal for Hjelle to see time in the big leagues this season.

After pitching in middle relief in his first five outings as a River Cat, Norwith Gudino transitioned to the rotation this month and did not look bad in my opinion. His pitch count did not matter as he’s still getting the same workload as he was in middle relief of around 65 pitches and his stuff has looked the same in the rotation. Gudino has three competitive pitches with his mid-90s fastball, slider, and split-change with a respectable 7.3% walk rate in Triple-A this season. Gudino deserves to be included in the conversation for the final spots in any top 30 list.

Sammy Long has bounced back and forth between the big leagues and in Sacramento as a stop-gap option for Gabe Kapler’s squad. With his pitch arsenal now publicly available in Baseball Savant, it is much easier to assess Long as a pitcher. His curveball as close to a true 12-6 offering with a way below-average horizontal break but with an above-average vertical break. His fastball is not exactly on the opposite spin axis as his curveball but the pitch has above-average induced vertical break. Those are the only two pitches that have potential however as his changeup is way below-average in terms of both vertical and horizontal movement and his slider is nothing special. I still believe Long is a middle reliever that could see his velocity tick up in one-inning stints and let that curveball play.

SF Giants Prospects Weekly Rundown: High-A

Notable Performers

Kai-Wei Teng: 4 G, 4 GS, 2 W, 23 IP, 16 H, 5 R (4 ER), 9 BB, 35 K, 1.57 ERA
Ryan Murphy: 4 G, 4 GS, 2 W, 22.1 IP, 9 H, 9 R (3 ER), 5 BB, 32 K, 1.21 ERA
Austin Reich: 5 G, 2 W, 10 IP, 7 H, 2 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 16 K, 1.80 ERA
Chris Wright: 6 G, 1 W, 4 SV, 7 IP, 2 H, 2 R (2 ER), 2 BB, 10 K, 1.29 ERA

After a couple of months of not having a reliable starting pitcher in their rotation, Eugene finally has two in Kai-Wei Teng and Ryan Murphy as they look to take the High-A West lead.

The biggest story this month is the resurgence of Teng. In a five-game stretch from June 27th to July 21st, Teng’s stock was at its lowest with a 10.80 ERA. However, over his past five starts, Teng is back in the game with a minuscule 1.29 ERA. What was the difference? First, is he enjoyed a 6% increase in his strike rate from 56% when he was struggling to 62%. The second and the biggest difference is the 9% increase in his whiff rate from 31.1% to 40.7%. Upon comparing the two stretches, he was looking to be toying a harder slider but was not an effective pitch for him as it was often “cement mixing” to the middle of the plate. It looks like he reverted to a bigger breaking slider that he employed earlier this season where he has seen decent success with. It’s safe to say that Teng is now back in the conversation to be one of the top 30 prospects in the organization.

The second starting pitcher that excelled over the past three weeks is Murphy. After an exemplary July, the Giants brass rewarded Murphy with a promotion to Eugene. The results were as expected as the right-hander has never pitched below five innings and is giving his team a puncher’s chance to win. After his start in Hillsboro where he went 7 innings of work, Murphy told me that he was not happy with the mound in the first inning where he gave up his first earned runs as an Emerald and having thrown 24 pitches. He asked for the mound to get fixed and dominated afterward, pitching six innings of one-hit baseball with eight strikeouts and having only thrown just 54 pitches. He is still showing the strikeout stuff with a 38.1% strikeout rate and a 31.85% whiff rate and is still leading the entire Minor Leagues in strikeouts with 148. Murphy is the breakout prospect for the Giants this season.

There are a couple of incredible relievers that will anchor the Eugene bullpen on the season’s climax. Austin Reich has continued to be a stellar piece for the Emeralds. the 24-year old right-hander has a 1.75 ERA and a stellar 36:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25.2 innings pitched. The only knock that I have against him is that he is not being used more often with him having a pretty consistent 4-5 day routine of work pitching multiple innings. It would be interesting if he is going to be used more often in one-inning stints.

The other half of the incredible Eugene bullpen is their closer, Chris Wright. Wright had a 14-game stretch of not allowing an earned run that ended against the AquaSox but during those 14 games, Wright struck out 22 hitters in 18.1 innings pitched. Wright has nabbed 11 saves as an Emerald and has a 41.2% whiff rate in 29 innings of work with a 1.24 ERA.

SF Giants Prospects Weekly Rundown: Low-A

Notable Performers

Kyle Harrison: 4 G, 4 GS, 14.1 IP, 12 H, 5 R (4 ER), 8 BB, 24 K, 2.51 ERA
Carson Ragsdale: 3 G, 3 GS, 1 W, 16.1 IP, 19 H, 10 R (10 ER), 5 BB, 23 K, 5.51 ERA
Prelander Berroa: 3 G, 3 GS, 1 W, 11.1 IP, 8 H, 9 R (7 ER), 9 BB, 17 K, 5.56 ERA
Randy Rodriguez: 5 G, 1 W, 12.2 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 20 K, 0.00 ERA

Based on his recent outings, it looks like the Giants are managing Kyle Harrison‘s pitch count as the season winds down having already thrown more than 1400 pitches this season. It did not fail for Harrison to deliver one of his most dominant outings of the season on August 10th where according to a source told Kyle felt he had the best feel of his slider all season. The slider was sharp, tighter, and nastier. I expect Harrison to be better than ever next season with a full off-season to hone in his newfound velocity and refined arsenal.

I am a little bit concerned about Carson Ragsdale‘s form recently as he has allowed a run in his last 11 starts with a 4.64 ERA. However, the peripherals have continued to be strong as he has an above-average 68% strike rate, 8.8% walk rate, and a 31.4% strikeout rate over that stretch. Like Harrison, Ragsdale has already thrown more than 1400 pitches in his first full season but unlike the 19-year old, the Giants brass are looking for Ragsdale to accumulate as many pitches as he can as he threw a career-high 95 pitches in his latest start against Rancho Cucamonga. Ragsdale still shapes up to be a potential top 30 prospect this season.

After pitching a dominant July, Prelander Berroa‘s August has taken stat-wise with a 5.56 ERA, below-average 57% strike rate, and an 18% walk rate. When watching his starts, however, his stats did not reflect the fact that he is actually making strides development-wise as he is now throwing his slider more as a chase pitch instead of a get-me-over pitch. The 21-year old is around 100 pitches behind both Harrison and Ragsdale in terms of workload so I expect the Giants to have a longer leash on Berroa’s pitch count as the season winds down.

One of the most underrated relievers in the farm system is Randy Rodriguez. The 21-year old right-hander is electric on the mound and has produced stellar results with a 2.33 ERA this season. The peripherals have been strong as well this season with an above-average 66% strike rate, a 35.5% strikeout rate, and a corresponding 36.8% whiff rate. The only blemish in his line is that he is not exactly lights out with a .213 opponent’s batting average and a below-average 11% walk rate. He is slightly similar to former San Jose reliever Ivan Armstrong in terms of stuff with a mid-90s fastball with good arm-side run and a sharp slider from a low 3/4 arm-slot. The difference is that Rodriguez’s body is better long-term. It would be interesting if he will be given the opportunity to pitch in high-leverage situations as the Giants look to secure a playoff spot.

SF Giants Prospects Weekly Rundown: Rookie

Notable Performers

Blake Rivera: 5 G, 3 W, 10.1 IP, 8 H, 3 R (3 ER), 3 BB, 14 K, 2.61 ERA
Nick Morreale: 4 G, 4 GS, 8.1 IP, 7 H, 1 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 15 K, 1.08 ERA
Cole Waites: 3 G, 1 W, 0 H, 1 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 7 K, 0.00 ERA
Ian Villers: 3 G, 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 0.00 ERA

The Rookie rundown this week will mostly cover the pitchers doing their rehab assignments to switch things up. Blake Rivera is one of the most promising pitchers to breeze through the system once he gets converted to a reliever with the hopes of reaching high minors this season. However, shoulder injuries caused Rivera to miss the first three months of the season and begin his 2021 in Complex ball. He still has one of the nastiest breaking balls in the farm system with his hard knuckle-curve and now has flashed a good-looking slider to boot. Rivera could see time in the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time.

Nick Morreale has seen competitive reps in Rookie ball after a strong start to his 2021 season in Eugene. Morreale has missed time due to an undisclosed injury that kept him from rolling through the season as a valuable part of the Emeralds rotation. He has shown the ability to hit 95 with his fastball and has a hard, cutter-like slider that he pounds the inner-third of lefty hitters. I expect him to be pitching once again in full-season ball as the season winds down.

The final pitcher that I want to highlight is Cole Waites. Entering this season, I was high on Waites and has selected him as one of my breakout prospects in pre-season as I am super impressed with his work in the offseason gaining velocity and having a sharper breaking ball. However, injuries have found their way into the right-hander that has limited his season in Rookie ball. After a dominant rehab stint in Arizona, Waites is now a part of the San Jose bullpen and I can’t wait for him to be the closer for the squad with his triple-digit heat.

Several of the 2021 draftees have started their professional careers in rookie ball as well. Hunter Dula, Tyler Myrick, Brett Standlee, and Ian Villers to name a few who have seen time and it is Villers that I am the most excited about. The 2021 eighth-round draft choice was ranked 169 in Baseball America’s 2021 Top 500 Draft prospect list. He can touch 96-97 MPH with his fastball but will sit in the low-90s for better control. He has an average slider that could turn to an above-average pitch with refinement. Villers is pitching in the bullpen right now but I could definitely see him pitch in the San Jose rotation next season as he has a full starter’s repertoire with a curveball and changeup. He is also young for the class as he is under 21 years old at draft day. The Giants have enjoyed some Day 2 breakouts under the Michael Holmes regime and Villers could be the next in line as he gets acclimated to pro ball.

Stay tuned to Around the Foghorn for the latest news and updates on SF Giants prospects.