SF Giants: Building an extension for slugger Kris Bryant

The SF Giants made one of the biggest moves at this year’s MLB trade deadline when they acquired slugger Kris Bryant from the Chicago Cubs for prospects Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian. The 2016 National League Most Valuable Player award winner has quickly found a home in the Giants lineup. He has already delivered a multi-home run game and a walk-off hit. In Bryant’s 16 games since he was acquired, he has blasted five doubles, three home runs, and recorded a .295/.348/.525 triple-slash while playing all over the field.

Less than a month into his Giants tenure, fans are already clamoring for him to stay in San Francisco after this season. However, his contract leaves that up in the air. Bryant is slated to become a free agent this season, which should prompt a significant bidding war. The Giants have yet to sign anyone to a massive contract since Farhan Zaidi was hired as the president of baseball operations. Could that change in the next couple of months?

Can the SF Giants extend Kris Bryant beyond 2021?

My colleague Kyle Foster thinks there are reasons to believe Bryant will be leaving San Francisco at the end of the season. He particularly points to agent Scott Boras, who is well known for leveraging massive free-agent deals for his clients. Still, I’m more inclined to think a reunion is possible. In fact, Bryant himself has hinted that he wants to make the Bay Area a more permanent residence.

In a press conference with reporters earlier this week, Bryant was directly asked if Boras would prevent him from signing an extension with the Giants before reaching free agency. His response, “I run the show,” reiterated that while Boras may have certain tendencies, he remains ultimately at the will of his clients. If Bryant wants to stay in San Francisco, and the early indications are he does, negotiating an extension should be straightforward. The only question left at that point is how much it would cost?

SF Giants: Building an extension with Kris Bryant
2. The Ceiling

Estimate: eight-years, $200 million

Boras will almost assuredly use Anthony Rendon‘s seven-year, $245 million contract with the Angels from two offseasons ago as a precedent to get Bryant a similar deal. Both Rendon and Bryant were entering free agency set to turn 30 the next year and Bryant has had a far more celebrated career. With that said, a combination of factors will probably keep Bryant from approaching that deal.

Rendon entered free agency on the heels of three seasons with a .900 OPS or higher. In fact, during Rendon’s contract year, he finished third in NL MVP voting and hit .319/.412/.598 as he helped carry the Nationals to a World Series title. While Bryant has some time left in 2021 to approach Rendon’s productivity, his overall .271/.357/.506 triple-slash falls short of Rendon’s fantastic 2019. Bryant posted a .903 OPS in 2019, but an injury riddle 2020 (.206/.293/.351 triple-slash) will only be further justification for teams to bring their offers down.

Whether or not Bryant is a better free agent than Rendon was, Rendon is in just the second year of his contract and has already seen his productivity take a significant step back alongside an extended stint on the injured list. It might not be fair to Bryant, but teams will also use Rendon’s mediocre 2021 season to justify throwing out his contract as a reasonable comparison.

Boras, though, has shown an ability to coax relationships with ownership groups-particularly for highly marketable free agents like Bryant-before. A $200 million contract would seem well within the realm of possibilities. However, Rendon remains the only player older than 27 to eclipse that mark in recent history. Springer’s six-year deal with the Blue Jays seems far more in line with the current market for sluggers, perhaps setting up a deal in the seven-year, $180 million range.

Bryant will be a year younger than Springer was last offseason and has a much more flexible defensive future with the ability to play all around the infield and outfield. While I don’t think Bryant will eclipse $200 million, Boras has pulled off plenty of significant surprises before. An eight-year, $200 million contract might end up a compromise that gets Bryant to the $200 million threshold but keeps his contract’s average annual value  (AAV) at $25 million.

SF Giants: Building an extension with Kris Bryant
3. The Midpoint

Estimate: six-years, $170 million

I’ve made it pretty clear that Springer’s deal with Toronto seems like a reasonable framework for Bryant’s negotiations. Set to enter free agency a year younger than Springer, a seven-year, $175 million contract, which adds an extra year on top of Springer’s deal, would seem to be a fit for both sides. However, I think both Boras and the Giants might both be incentivized to work out a slightly shorter deal.

Since joining the Giants, Zaidi has shown a penchant for long-term flexibility and has plenty of payroll space to offer Bryant a larger AAV for a shorter deal. At Bryant’s age, it would probably maximize his financial earnings to look for a seven or eight-year deal now. However, if he is willing to bet on himself, it could pay dividends to sign a high-AAV three-year, $100 million or four-year, $120 million contract with hopes that strong play into his mid-thirties could give him another bite at the apple.

Also, Boras might know that Bryant will be unable to set any records with a contract in free agency in terms of total value. Agents want to make a splash with every signing. Bryant could easily shoot up AAV leaderboards with a shorter-term deal. The question is, how much security is he willing to sacrifice to do it? While I would not be shocked if both sides went in this direction, I’m skeptical that Bryant would pass on a bit more long-term security.

A six-year deal seems like a reasonable compromise. By carrying Bryant through his age-35 season, it’s not inconceivable that he could still sign another significant contract. For Zaidi, he could be a bit more confident in giving Bryant a higher AAV with the knowledge that it won’t carry into his late-thirties. A six-year, $170 million contract would give Bryant the seventh-largest AAV among active position players, adding more than $3 million a year over Springer’s deal with the Blue Jays.

Kris Bryant’s time with the SF Giants could end shortly if the two sides do not work out an extension. The powerful slugger will be hotly pursued this offseason by several front offices if he reaches the open market. Of course, after recent comments suggesting he hopes to stay in the Bay Area beyond 2021, it seems like an extension to stay with the Orange and Black could be in the cards.