SF Giants: Building an extension for slugger Kris Bryant

SF Giants: Building an extension with Kris Bryant
1. The Floor

Estimate: five-years, $120 million

Few MLB players have seen their earnings decline more in free agency than aging sluggers have in recent years. While Bryant was one of the best hitters in MLB as soon as he debuted in 2015, he’s entering free agency headed into his age-30 season. He will surely receive a sizable contract, but the years of a player like him receiving a record-setting deal are probably over.

There have been several players in Bryant’s age range who inked nine-figure contracts that never replicated their previous levels of success. In negotiations, Boras will surely see plenty of teams throw those contracts back at him as they try to bring the price down.

The impending labor dispute between MLB and the MLBPA adds another layer to an already complicated offseason. While teams have had a full season of revenue, unlike in 2020, owners will likely try to position themselves with the most leverage possible heading into collective bargaining. Yes, that would be collusion, which is illegal, but we have seen pro sports owners avoid punishment and successfully coordinate such things before. Bryant could find a surprisingly lukewarm market that pushes him to sign a discounted deal.

Furthermore, extensions tend to come at below-market prices. For example, when the Giants extended Hunter Pence back in 2013, he received a five-year, $90 million contract. Later that offseason, outfielders Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury each signed seven-year deals worth at least $130 million despite producing at a similar level to Pence over their careers. However, Pence wanted to stay in San Francisco and was willing to sacrifice something in negotiations.

This season, Brandon Crawford decided to sign a two-year, $32 million extension to stay in San Francisco. While Crawford is already 34, it’s hard to envision him not receiving some larger offers on the open market given the MVP-caliber campaign he’s putting together.

A five-year, $120 million extension would slot in just above the contracts handed out to Yoenis Cespedes and J.D. Martinez during their free agencies but fall short of George Springer’s six-year, $150 million contract from last offseason. Given Bryant’s age and resume, it would be idiotic for the Giants to turn down the opportunity to ink him to that contract. However, he would have significant justification to ask for more. If the Giants were compelled to do everything they could to re-sign Bryant, what would be the ceiling on a potential deal?

SF Giants: Building an extension with Kris Bryant
2. The Ceiling

Estimate: eight-years, $200 million

Boras will almost assuredly use Anthony Rendon‘s seven-year, $245 million contract with the Angels from two offseasons ago as a precedent to get Bryant a similar deal. Both Rendon and Bryant were entering free agency set to turn 30 the next year and Bryant has had a far more celebrated career. With that said, a combination of factors will probably keep Bryant from approaching that deal.

Rendon entered free agency on the heels of three seasons with a .900 OPS or higher. In fact, during Rendon’s contract year, he finished third in NL MVP voting and hit .319/.412/.598 as he helped carry the Nationals to a World Series title. While Bryant has some time left in 2021 to approach Rendon’s productivity, his overall .271/.357/.506 triple-slash falls short of Rendon’s fantastic 2019. Bryant posted a .903 OPS in 2019, but an injury riddle 2020 (.206/.293/.351 triple-slash) will only be further justification for teams to bring their offers down.

Whether or not Bryant is a better free agent than Rendon was, Rendon is in just the second year of his contract and has already seen his productivity take a significant step back alongside an extended stint on the injured list. It might not be fair to Bryant, but teams will also use Rendon’s mediocre 2021 season to justify throwing out his contract as a reasonable comparison.

Boras, though, has shown an ability to coax relationships with ownership groups-particularly for highly marketable free agents like Bryant-before. A $200 million contract would seem well within the realm of possibilities. However, Rendon remains the only player older than 27 to eclipse that mark in recent history. Springer’s six-year deal with the Blue Jays seems far more in line with the current market for sluggers, perhaps setting up a deal in the seven-year, $180 million range.

Bryant will be a year younger than Springer was last offseason and has a much more flexible defensive future with the ability to play all around the infield and outfield. While I don’t think Bryant will eclipse $200 million, Boras has pulled off plenty of significant surprises before. An eight-year, $200 million contract might end up a compromise that gets Bryant to the $200 million threshold but keeps his contract’s average annual value  (AAV) at $25 million.

SF Giants: Building an extension with Kris Bryant
3. The Midpoint

Estimate: six-years, $170 million

I’ve made it pretty clear that Springer’s deal with Toronto seems like a reasonable framework for Bryant’s negotiations. Set to enter free agency a year younger than Springer, a seven-year, $175 million contract, which adds an extra year on top of Springer’s deal, would seem to be a fit for both sides. However, I think both Boras and the Giants might both be incentivized to work out a slightly shorter deal.

Since joining the Giants, Zaidi has shown a penchant for long-term flexibility and has plenty of payroll space to offer Bryant a larger AAV for a shorter deal. At Bryant’s age, it would probably maximize his financial earnings to look for a seven or eight-year deal now. However, if he is willing to bet on himself, it could pay dividends to sign a high-AAV three-year, $100 million or four-year, $120 million contract with hopes that strong play into his mid-thirties could give him another bite at the apple.

Also, Boras might know that Bryant will be unable to set any records with a contract in free agency in terms of total value. Agents want to make a splash with every signing. Bryant could easily shoot up AAV leaderboards with a shorter-term deal. The question is, how much security is he willing to sacrifice to do it? While I would not be shocked if both sides went in this direction, I’m skeptical that Bryant would pass on a bit more long-term security.

A six-year deal seems like a reasonable compromise. By carrying Bryant through his age-35 season, it’s not inconceivable that he could still sign another significant contract. For Zaidi, he could be a bit more confident in giving Bryant a higher AAV with the knowledge that it won’t carry into his late-thirties. A six-year, $170 million contract would give Bryant the seventh-largest AAV among active position players, adding more than $3 million a year over Springer’s deal with the Blue Jays.

Kris Bryant’s time with the SF Giants could end shortly if the two sides do not work out an extension. The powerful slugger will be hotly pursued this offseason by several front offices if he reaches the open market. Of course, after recent comments suggesting he hopes to stay in the Bay Area beyond 2021, it seems like an extension to stay with the Orange and Black could be in the cards.