SF Giants: Building a Max Scherzer trade with the Washington Nationals

The July 31st MLB trade deadline is already inspiring a flurry of actions across the league. Sitting atop the National League West standings, the SF Giants are sure to be one of the most active teams. However, in the same division as the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, there might be even more pressure to upgrade their roster.

While many fans may clamor for a trade to acquire an elite closer or a middle-of-the-lineup bat, the majority of rumors have tied San Francisco to the starting pitching market than anything else. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported the Giants, Dodgers, and Padres were one of seven contenders among the most active in the market to upgrade their rotations. Now the only question remains how high each team is aiming.

SF Giants trade rumors: Could they acquire Max Scherzer?

The Padres and Dodgers front offices have both made their fair share of big splashes in recent years. On the other hand, the Giants have yet to make a big splash under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. After inheriting an organization lacking elite talent at the MLB and minor league level, Zaidi is now at the helm of one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. If there was ever a time to make his first big splash, these next few days could be the perfect opportunity to do so.

No starting pitcher on the market comes with a better track record than Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer. Arguably the best MLB pitcher over the past decade, Scherzer has continued performing at an elite level in 2021, despite turning 37 on Tuesday. Across 105 innings pitched, Scherzer has posted a 2.83 ERA, issued just 25 walks, and racked up 142 strikeouts. Most ERA estimators believe Scherzer was a bit lucky in the first half of the season (3.22 xERA, 3.47 FIP, and 3.37 xFIP) but remain confident in his abilities to perform atop a rotation.

If the SF Giants plan on going big at this year’s MLB trade deadline, they have to consider making a run at Scherzer. While the righty has a full no-trade clause and is a free agent at the end of the year, recent reports have suggested he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause and has a particular preference to end up on the West Coast. His agent also discussed possibly working out an extension as part of a deal earlier in the summer, which could allow the Giants to lock him into their rotation for years to come.

SF Giants trade rumors: A Max Scherzer contract extension

If the Giants and Nationals can agree to a trade for Scherzer, the deal would still have to jump one more hurdle: Scherzer’s no-trade clause. Would the righty block a trade to a legitimate World Series contender? Probably not. However, he and the Giants might have a mutual interest in working out an extension before he approves the deal. San Francisco has none of their current starting pitchers under contract for next season and an immense amount of payroll flexibility. Given Scherzer’s advanced age, he would probably like to secure some guaranteed money as soon as possible.

With that said, a client of notorious agent Scott Boras, it would be a surprise to see Scherzer accept any significant discount in exchange for long-term security. The fact remains that Boras will likely aim to make the Nationals ace one of the highest-paid pitchers in the world. Of course, Scherzer turned 37 this week. Teams, including the Giants, might be tentative to make a huge long-term commitment to one of the oldest active players in MLB.

If there’s a team that can afford to take a risk with payroll, however, it should be the Giants. Easily one of the wealthiest franchises in the league, San Francisco’s ownership has benefitted from significantly lower payrolls in the first years of Zaidi’s tenure. As they look to return to the pinnacle of the league, their payroll should rise as well.

As more players have shown the ability to be productive late into their thirties, more big league front offices have shown a willingness to play proven veterans top dollar on short-term deals. If the Giants do ink Scherzer to an extension, it will likely follow a similar model. Boras might insist on setting a record for the largest average annual value for a pitcher, which could lend itself to a one-year, $40 million contract. Still, I would expect things to move towards a three-year, $80 million deal that includes a club option for a fourth year.

The Giants have shied away from spending a premium under Zaidi. However, Scherzer’s no-trade clause gives him a significant amount of leverage. The Padres, Dodgers, and Giants are competing with one another in their division. All three are reportedly acceptable spots to Scherzer. If the Giants have a deal in place, Boras could threaten to invoke the no-trade clause and find a deal with the Dodgers or Padres instead.

Will the SF Giants find a way to acquire Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer? With three division rivals interested in the 37-year-old righty, the market could get pricey in terms of prospects and a long-term contract. We’ll see if Farhan Zaidi can get it done.