SF Giants: Building a Max Scherzer trade with the Washington Nationals

SF Giants trade rumors: A fair prospect package for Max Scherzer

Alexander Canario is a borderline top-100 prospect in MLB, but at the least, he is a consensus top-10 prospect in the Giants farm system. With huge power potential and a solid .239/.330/.440 triple-slash in his first taste of full-season ball, Canario has legitimate potential to hit 25 home runs a season. At the same time, the Giants minor league ranks are stacked in the outfield, and Canario is the only notable prospect already on the 40-man roster, making him an obvious trade candidate.

Caleb Kilian was selected in the 8th round of the 2019 MLB draft and has absolutely dominated in his first full minor league season this year. Kilian obliterated the High-A competition with the Eugene Emeralds and has already found his footing at Double-A Richmond. Between the two levels, Kilian has struck out 96 hitters in 84.2 innings pitched (15 starts) while issuing just nine walks and posting a 2.13 ERA. Without an obvious out pitch, scouts are split on whether Kilian has a future in a rotation, but the Nats front office could easily see him contributing at the big-league level soon.

Armani Smith was selected one round ahead of Kilian and has had a strong 2021 as well. Like Canario, Smith feels more expendable due to the team’s outfield depth. Selected out of UC Santa Barbara, Smith is older for a prospect at the High-A level, but he has plus power potential. Smith may not be the caliber of prospect that Kilian or Canario is but would easily rank among Washington’s top 30 prospects.

Sending out Joey Bart for a rental seems hard to envision, but Scherzer is a truly unique player on this year’s trade market. Most importantly, if the Giants are confident they can sign Scherzer to an extension, they might be willing to part with a more premium piece. Of course, signing Scherzer to a premium extension will not leave a massive amount of surplus for the front office to justify a massive package. If they included Bart, it would be hard to envision any other significant piece heading to Washington.

Kervin Castro may be a big-league-ready reliever but would also free up a 40-man roster spot to help the Giants deal with their impending roster crunch. Garrett Frechette was a mid-round selection in the 2019 MLB draft who has failed to find his place in a full-season ball but has performed well in Rookie Ball and could be an intriguing lottery ticket for the Nationals.

SF Giants trade rumors: A Max Scherzer contract extension

If the Giants and Nationals can agree to a trade for Scherzer, the deal would still have to jump one more hurdle: Scherzer’s no-trade clause. Would the righty block a trade to a legitimate World Series contender? Probably not. However, he and the Giants might have a mutual interest in working out an extension before he approves the deal. San Francisco has none of their current starting pitchers under contract for next season and an immense amount of payroll flexibility. Given Scherzer’s advanced age, he would probably like to secure some guaranteed money as soon as possible.

With that said, a client of notorious agent Scott Boras, it would be a surprise to see Scherzer accept any significant discount in exchange for long-term security. The fact remains that Boras will likely aim to make the Nationals ace one of the highest-paid pitchers in the world. Of course, Scherzer turned 37 this week. Teams, including the Giants, might be tentative to make a huge long-term commitment to one of the oldest active players in MLB.

If there’s a team that can afford to take a risk with payroll, however, it should be the Giants. Easily one of the wealthiest franchises in the league, San Francisco’s ownership has benefitted from significantly lower payrolls in the first years of Zaidi’s tenure. As they look to return to the pinnacle of the league, their payroll should rise as well.

As more players have shown the ability to be productive late into their thirties, more big league front offices have shown a willingness to play proven veterans top dollar on short-term deals. If the Giants do ink Scherzer to an extension, it will likely follow a similar model. Boras might insist on setting a record for the largest average annual value for a pitcher, which could lend itself to a one-year, $40 million contract. Still, I would expect things to move towards a three-year, $80 million deal that includes a club option for a fourth year.

The Giants have shied away from spending a premium under Zaidi. However, Scherzer’s no-trade clause gives him a significant amount of leverage. The Padres, Dodgers, and Giants are competing with one another in their division. All three are reportedly acceptable spots to Scherzer. If the Giants have a deal in place, Boras could threaten to invoke the no-trade clause and find a deal with the Dodgers or Padres instead.

Will the SF Giants find a way to acquire Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer? With three division rivals interested in the 37-year-old righty, the market could get pricey in terms of prospects and a long-term contract. We’ll see if Farhan Zaidi can get it done.