SF Giants MLB draft preview chat: What will they do at 14?

On the eve of the MLB draft, Around the Foghorn prospect experts Wrenzie Regodon and Marc Delucchi chatted about the latest rumors and their expectations for the SF Giants.

SF Giants MLB draft preview chat: What should fans expect?

Marc Delucchi: So I’m going to be completely honest here, I have no idea what to expect from the Giants in this year’s draft. Absolutely none. They are tied to all these college pitchers, including Texas righty Ty Madden and Kansas State southpaw Jordan Wicks, but they were linked to Alek Manoah and Jackson Rutledge in 2019 and even some light Cade Cavalli talk in 2020 and none of those ever happened.

On the prep side of things, we’ve never seen the Giants under scouting director Michael Holmes pull the trigger on a prep player in the top-two rounds, even though they’ve made top round investments in players like Kyle Harrison, Grant McCray, and Trevor McDonald, it’s hard to know whether their analysis of later round over-slot picks is different than potential first-round selections.

How are you feeling heading into the weekend? Do you feel like you have a sense of where things stand?

Wrenzie Regodon: I’m also going to be completely honest in saying that I have no idea in which direction they will go! It’s definitely nice that they are looking at every corner, especially in the prep ranks, to have a good sense of whatever is available when they make their first selection with the 14th overall pick.

Honestly, I think the Giants are in a prime position to pick up what’s left for them when they make their first selection on Sunday. In Holmes’ first two drafts with the Giants, they scooped up Hunter Bishop and Patrick Bailey by basically letting the board come to them. I think they will still go the college route and do the usual “save money early to have a budget for later” strategy. Still, you never really know, especially with them heavily tied to outfielder Benny Montgomery and right-handed pitcher Bubba Chandler.

SF Giants MLB draft preview chat: Who do you hope they select?

MD: That’s a tough one. To be completely honest, unless there’s someone incredibly unexpected who falls, I don’t think there’s anyone in the range who I’d consider a home run. Sal Frelick, Montgomery, Madden, etc., are all intriguing prospects, but all of them have their own flaws and questions. The Giants system is deep now, and so mid-first round prospects aren’t going to stand out like they did three years ago.

My read on how the Giants have handled the first round under Holmes is that they come up with a group of prospects they like and try to leverage them against each other when they are on the clock and select whoever is willing to take the lowest bonus. I think that’s why they’ve been so hard to peg in mock drafts under Holmes. I expect them to do something similar this year, and that means I’m honestly more excited to see what they do in the rest of the draft than in the first. Odds are they’re going to draft a 40+ or 45 future value prospect that slots into the late top ten or teens of my top 31 prospect rankings. I’m also very interested to see if they continue following their recent draft trends or start moving in other directions.

WR: I agree with you that whoever they draft in the first round will have some flaws in their game. Madden’s fastball does not play well up in the zone, Frelick does not have top-tier power, Montgomery’s unorthodox swing raises questions, Ole Miss righty Gunnar Hoglund just had Tommy John surgery, and Wicks has a mediocre breaking ball and is old for the class.

I do agree as well that whoever they draft first will not have the pressure of recent picks. The strong depth of the system at the moment and big-league success should make it easier. Honestly, I viewed last year’s draft class as kind of a way to plug holes in the organizational depth, and I kind of see them taking the same approach this year. I still think the pitching depth in the organization is quite thin, and there is a good depth of arms in this draft class, so I hope they don’t solely draft hitters like in 2019.

MD: I will say this though, I think the most Giants pick is easily Frelick (if he slips to 14). I think the pick I would be most excited about is Harry Ford, although I’d be more surprised if he got to 14. I really like Andrew Painter, but I don’t think he fits the Giants profile as a pitcher and seems to have a fairly high bonus ask.

SF Giants MLB draft preview chat: What would you do?

WR: I want to ask if there are positions in the farm system you would like for the Giants to find depth via this draft class. For me, as I said, I kind of want to see them draft pitching.

MD: Good question. Honestly, no. I just want tools and upside. That’s been the consistent place I’ve deviated from the Giants over the past few years, under Barr or Holmes. They have such system depth. I want them to take some bigger risks with upside. Although, to be fair, they took some swings with players like Hunter Bishop, Armani Smith, and R.J. Dabovich, but I would like to see a stronger lean towards prep prospects.

WR: So you kind of leaning towards wanting the front office to draft someone like a Montgomery (there’s also shortstop Colson Montgomery), Ford, and other top prep names in the first three rounds rather than settling on college guys like a Wicks, UCLA’s Matt McLain, or Louisville third baseman Alex Binelas.

It’s fascinating to think that the best performers in the Holmes-led draft classes have been from the college ranks, with Harrison being the lone exception. It’s still early on in the process, especially for the prep prospects, but they seem to develop college prospects pretty well so far.

MD: Well, to be honest, I don’t know what I’d do. In the past, I’ve been all over the volatile prep players (especially pitchers) that I thought were undervalued and might be willing to take an under-slot deal from the Giants based on where San Francisco was picking (Matthew Liberatore & Kumar Rocker in 2018, Daniel Espino in 2019, and Nick Bitsko (or even Cole Wilcox on the collegiate side) in 2020. This year the two prep arms I liked most relative to the rankings I saw were Chase Petty and Thatcher Hurd, but Hurd announced he’s going to UCLA, and Petty has been such a big name it’s hard to envision him taking a below slot deal at 14th in the draft.

The Cincinnati Reds really feel like a cloud hanging over the Giants pick as well because they have several comp picks, which gives them a huge bonus pool that prospects can leverage against the Giants. If I’m Ford or one of the Montgomery’s, I’m not taking a cent below slot from the Giants and might insist on an over-slot deal since the Reds would probably give that to me at 17. I don’t know if I’d take one of those preps for a $4.2 million bonus if I could get a college player I liked (Jud Fabian comes to mind for me) to take $3 million. Of course, this is probably exactly the kind of calculation that led the Giants to pass on Tyler Soderstrom for Bailey in 2020, which looks like the wrong decision right now.