SF Giants MLB draft preview chat: What will they do at 14?

SF Giants MLB draft preview chat: Who do you hope they select?

MD: That’s a tough one. To be completely honest, unless there’s someone incredibly unexpected who falls, I don’t think there’s anyone in the range who I’d consider a home run. Sal Frelick, Montgomery, Madden, etc., are all intriguing prospects, but all of them have their own flaws and questions. The Giants system is deep now, and so mid-first round prospects aren’t going to stand out like they did three years ago.

My read on how the Giants have handled the first round under Holmes is that they come up with a group of prospects they like and try to leverage them against each other when they are on the clock and select whoever is willing to take the lowest bonus. I think that’s why they’ve been so hard to peg in mock drafts under Holmes. I expect them to do something similar this year, and that means I’m honestly more excited to see what they do in the rest of the draft than in the first. Odds are they’re going to draft a 40+ or 45 future value prospect that slots into the late top ten or teens of my top 31 prospect rankings. I’m also very interested to see if they continue following their recent draft trends or start moving in other directions.

WR: I agree with you that whoever they draft in the first round will have some flaws in their game. Madden’s fastball does not play well up in the zone, Frelick does not have top-tier power, Montgomery’s unorthodox swing raises questions, Ole Miss righty Gunnar Hoglund just had Tommy John surgery, and Wicks has a mediocre breaking ball and is old for the class.

I do agree as well that whoever they draft first will not have the pressure of recent picks. The strong depth of the system at the moment and big-league success should make it easier. Honestly, I viewed last year’s draft class as kind of a way to plug holes in the organizational depth, and I kind of see them taking the same approach this year. I still think the pitching depth in the organization is quite thin, and there is a good depth of arms in this draft class, so I hope they don’t solely draft hitters like in 2019.

MD: I will say this though, I think the most Giants pick is easily Frelick (if he slips to 14). I think the pick I would be most excited about is Harry Ford, although I’d be more surprised if he got to 14. I really like Andrew Painter, but I don’t think he fits the Giants profile as a pitcher and seems to have a fairly high bonus ask.

SF Giants MLB draft preview chat: What would you do?

WR: I want to ask if there are positions in the farm system you would like for the Giants to find depth via this draft class. For me, as I said, I kind of want to see them draft pitching.

MD: Good question. Honestly, no. I just want tools and upside. That’s been the consistent place I’ve deviated from the Giants over the past few years, under Barr or Holmes. They have such system depth. I want them to take some bigger risks with upside. Although, to be fair, they took some swings with players like Hunter Bishop, Armani Smith, and R.J. Dabovich, but I would like to see a stronger lean towards prep prospects.

WR: So you kind of leaning towards wanting the front office to draft someone like a Montgomery (there’s also shortstop Colson Montgomery), Ford, and other top prep names in the first three rounds rather than settling on college guys like a Wicks, UCLA’s Matt McLain, or Louisville third baseman Alex Binelas.

It’s fascinating to think that the best performers in the Holmes-led draft classes have been from the college ranks, with Harrison being the lone exception. It’s still early on in the process, especially for the prep prospects, but they seem to develop college prospects pretty well so far.

MD: Well, to be honest, I don’t know what I’d do. In the past, I’ve been all over the volatile prep players (especially pitchers) that I thought were undervalued and might be willing to take an under-slot deal from the Giants based on where San Francisco was picking (Matthew Liberatore & Kumar Rocker in 2018, Daniel Espino in 2019, and Nick Bitsko (or even Cole Wilcox on the collegiate side) in 2020. This year the two prep arms I liked most relative to the rankings I saw were Chase Petty and Thatcher Hurd, but Hurd announced he’s going to UCLA, and Petty has been such a big name it’s hard to envision him taking a below slot deal at 14th in the draft.

The Cincinnati Reds really feel like a cloud hanging over the Giants pick as well because they have several comp picks, which gives them a huge bonus pool that prospects can leverage against the Giants. If I’m Ford or one of the Montgomery’s, I’m not taking a cent below slot from the Giants and might insist on an over-slot deal since the Reds would probably give that to me at 17. I don’t know if I’d take one of those preps for a $4.2 million bonus if I could get a college player I liked (Jud Fabian comes to mind for me) to take $3 million. Of course, this is probably exactly the kind of calculation that led the Giants to pass on Tyler Soderstrom for Bailey in 2020, which looks like the wrong decision right now.

SF Giants MLB draft preview chat: Who could be some late-round fits?

WR: Ugh, don’t give me the Soderstrom war flashbacks *cries internally*. I think that is a logical and sound way of working with signing bonuses. Quite honestly, I am not enamored with any draft prospect this year in the realistic range for the Giants. I was all-in on both Soderstrom and Cavalli last year, but there hasn’t been anyone who stood out in the same way for me this year. That’s not to say there aren’t fantastic prospects available, just that it’s harder for me to delineate between them.

I do have some draft crushes later on like Davis Diaz, a NorCal Vandy commit shortstop whose bat I like a lot, Ky Bush, a lefty who has great fastball and slider, Peyton Wilson, who is like a supercharged Brett Auerbach, and Aaron Zavala, who was the Pac-12 Player of the Year with a versatile and well-rounded profile. Still, it seems like the Giants will be more reactive instead of proactive when it comes to value.

MD: I like a lot of those names for later-round picks. At this point, we’ll have to wait and see. Good talking to you as always and I can’t wait to chat with you about who the Giants ultimately select.

WR: In the end, it all comes back full circle to your first statement that we have no idea what the Giants will do haha! Great talking to you as always.

Stay tuned to Around the Foghorn for all the latest rumors and scouting reports on every selection by the SF Giants as they happen in this year’s MLB draft. The draft is 20 rounds and will span from July 11-13.