SF Giants: Prospects stock up and stock down through first month

The first month of the 2021 minor league season has come to a close, and boy it was an eventful one with plenty of exciting performances and otherwise. As expected, the quality of pitching has drastically improved after the long layoff, resulting in far more SF Giants pitching prospects that are off to a hot start while more hitters appear to be a step behind. Here are some of the prospects that have boosted their stock as a result of their strong start and vice versa.

SF Giants Prospects Early MiLB Season Stock Down Part 1

Casey Schmitt

Before the start of the season, I was really excited to see what Casey Schmitt could do as a full-time position player. After a month of play, however, I am disappointed with the lack of impact that he has offensively for the San Jose Giants. Even though Schmitt has played at college, Schmitt is hitting just .137/.210/.274 at Low-A.

Among qualified hitters in the Giants farm system (at least 3.1 plate appearances per game), Schmitt’s batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, and wRC+ are the worst while his slugging is second worst. In my opinion, there is one driving force behind his putrid offensive production. According to his scouting report in Baseball America, Schmitt “worked with Giants coaches to incentivize flyballs in the instructional league”. That has indeed reflected in his batted ball data, where his flyball rate is the highest among qualified Giants hitters while his line drive rate is the lowest at 7.3%.

The extremely low line drive rate is a sign that his bat path could have become too uphill and as a result, he’s not squaring up the ball consistently as he used to back in college. Batted-ball data tends to normalize quickly and rarely changes as the season goes on, so we might not expect a drastic shift in Schmitt’s numbers as the season progresses. However, swing adjustments could obviously change that. Sometimes players take some time before locking into a new path. Others are forced to return to old habits. We’ll see how that plays out for Schmitt.

SF Giants Prospects Early MiLB Season Stock Down Part 2

Logan Wyatt

Logan Wyatt is also off to a very slow start for the Eugene Emeralds, ranking in the bottom five in multiple offensive categories and ranking dead last in terms of slugging percentage and isolated power (ISO). His overall triple-slash of .190/.299/.238 leaves a lot to be desired.

Earlier in Spring Training, Wyatt showed his ability to put the ball in play and work counts. He carried it over to the regular season but with a concerningly low amount of power. With the second-highest groundball rate on the team, Wyatt is just not elevating the ball. His spray charts, similarly suggest he’s struggling to square the ball up.

Tristan Beck

I expected Tristan Beck to continue to rise through the ranks after dominating the California League when he was acquired by the Giants in 2019. After looking solid at Double-A and the Arizona Fall League in short stints a couple of years ago, he has struggled in his return to Richmond this year.

Among all pitchers in the Giants system, Beck’s ERA and FIP are among the ten worst. There are two things that stick out like a sore thumb that could be the reason for his struggles. His strikeout rate is below average for the first time in his career and he’s allowing an excessively high home run rate. When I watched his starts, his overall control is an issue, especially his breaking ball control.

There’s a silver lining, however, as Beck recorded more than a strikeout per inning in his last two starts. Given the small sample at this point in the season, Beck could simply be suffering from some bad flyball luck.

SF Giants Prospects Early MiLB Season Stock Up Part 1

Matt Frisbee

Matt Frisbee has easily been the most dominant pitcher in the Giants upper minors. He leads the entire system in innings, WHIP, and walk rate while ranking in the top five in numerous other categories. All of that dominance resulted in a Triple-A call-up for Frisbee.

His fastball control is on point for most of his outings, he tunnels his plus breaking ball off his high 3/4 release point very well, and his brand new splitter flashed solid at times. He even was a part of a no-hitter.

My colleague Marc Delucchi did an excellent profile on Frisbee’s development and contributions to the no-hitter last month. Marc aggressively ranked Frisbee in his preseason Top 30 list, I did not. After his other-worldly May performance, he’s now solidly inside my updated Top 30.

Caleb Kilian

There has been no one in the Giants organization, and potentially all of baseball, who’s come out of nowhere more than Caleb Kilian this minor league season. Kilian’s numbers are off the charts, with a 1.89 ERA and a 35:1 strikeout to walk ratio. What’s more impressive is he even has a lower FIP, at only 0.89.

I already gave plenty of my thoughts on Kilian in my prospects rundown, but I’ll say it again. Kilian is a true top 30 prospect in the farm system with a plus fastball that reaches 97 MPH, average secondaries (curveball, cutter, changeup) that play up because of his feel, fastball command, and ability to sequence off his fastball.

Ryan Murphy

Murphy just keeps on racking up innings for the San Jose squad, ranking third behind Frisbee and Kilian in terms of innings pitched in the system. His 45.3% flyball rate is high but he keeps his line drive rate low at 11.3%. Overall, Murphy has a good chance of being called up to High-A ball by midseason. For more about Murphy’s hot start, pitching approach, off-season work, and more, check out my interview with him a week ago.

SF Giants Early MiLB Season Other Prospects of Note

Kyle Harrison‘s walk rate is the fourth-highest among all Giants pitchers in the system, which is really odd as he is known more for his pitchability and control coming out of college. The sample size is still small but if it persists throughout the season, I would bump his command grade down. From what I saw so far, his mechanics, fastball-slider combo, arm-slot, and present control issues really reminded me of a right-handed version of former Giants top prospect Kyle Crick.

One of the hottest hitters in the farm system is Bryce Johnson, with him ranking fifth in wRC+ in the month of May. His line drive rate is the third-highest among qualified Giants hitters. His .460 BABIP seems unsustainable but when looking at the ratio between his batting average and BABIP, his ratio this year of 1.35:1 is actually in line with his normal ratio of 1.32:1 so there’s an indication that this potential breakout is for real.

Looking at the difference between ERA and FIP, Nick Morreale‘s ERA-FIP difference is 1.79, which would be sixth among all Giants pitchers. However, what’s more encouraging about his performance is that it is fueled with a high SwStr%. I’ve watched his best start of the season and he’s improved a lot with his fastball control.

The owner of the lowest SwStr% in the first month of the season belongs to Ismael Munguia. The contact-heavy Nicaraguan has upped his power a bit, shifting towards a line-to-line approach from a more pull-center approach when comparing his spray charts in the last two years. He’s also added a bit of lift to his swing, with a lower line drive rate but a higher flyball rate as proof.

Stay tuned to Around the Foghorn for the latest news and updates on the SF Giants farm system from Wrenzie Regodon and Marc Delucchi.