SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season

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SF Giants starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) throws against the Seattle Mariners during the second inning at T-Mobile Park. (Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports) /

The SF Giants dropped their first series of the season, but while many fans are disappointed by the team’s 1-2 record, there were some positive signs. With the obvious caveat that a three-game sample is far from enough to make definitive conclusions, here are three statistics that stood out:

SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season
1. 16 swinging strikes (Johnny Cueto)

There are few better measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness than the number of swings and misses they induce. A pitcher can be effective by limiting hard contact, alongside a favorable strike zone, and sound defense. However, it’s much harder to delineate what success is due to luck, and their performance.

Inducing whiffs though is far easier to compare from start to start. In Johnny Cueto‘s first appearance of the year, he induced 16 swinging strikes across his 5.2 innings of work, according to Baseball-Reference. In fact, Cueto had not generated that many swinging strikes in an outing since September of 2017.

Cueto had not recorded more than 12 swinging strikes in any of his 16 appearances from 2019-2020. The Mariners lineup includes many hitters with high strikeout rates throughout their careers, but since returning from UCL surgery, he has failed to fool many hitters, regardless of their scouting report.

On the surface, Cueto’s outing was far from impressive. He struck out 7, but walked 3, and allowed 3 runs. It was far from his best work, yet he still did something he had not done in years. That’s a fantastic sign that even better play could be around the corner. If he’s able to continue generating more whiffs while refining his control, he could finally bounceback from his consistent struggles over the past four seasons.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – APRIL 01: Donovan Solano #7 of the SF Giants at-bat against the Seattle Mariners in the fourth inning on Opening Day at T-Mobile Park on April 01, 2021, in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) /

SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season
2. 40.0% hard-hit rate

Even though the Giants were shut out in the third game of the series, the offense still generated hard-hit contact at an above-average rate over their first three games (37.6% was league-average in 2020). A 40% rate is far from exceptional, but it would have been the seventh-highest rate in MLB last season (the Giants ranked eighth with a 39.4% hard-hit rate).

Many have questioned San Francisco’s offensive success last season. Without any premium stars, it’s easy to be skeptical of the lineup. Unlike their rival Dodgers or Padres, the Giants probably won’t have a player to count on for 35-40 home runs. Instead, they will need to have one of the deepest offenses in baseball to generate above-average play. The first series of the season suggested that’s possible once again.

Mike Yastrzemski performed like a star last season, and many fans believe he could be a middle-of-the-lineup staple for years to come. Aside from him though, the organization will probably have to wait until next offseason to add a truly elite hitter to the roster. In due time, assuming the Giants make the right moves in free agency while continuing to develop their young talent, their lineup could catapult to the top of the league.

No one should expect the Giants to be an offensive juggernaut in 2021. However, if they can replicate their 2020 success, it’s a great sign that manager Gabe Kapler’s coaching staff and Farhan Zaidi’s front office are well equipped to maximize their talent. With their farm system on the rise and plenty of payroll flexibility, that’s an ideal recipe for success.

Wandy Peralta #60 of the SF Giants pitches against the Colorado Rockies at Oracle Park on September 21, 2020. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /

SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season
3. 30.3% whiff-rate

At this point, it’s no secret that the Giants’ pitching staff lacks premium velocity. In an age where most bullpens are littered with pitchers touching 99 mph, San Francisco’s pitching staff has no one that will touch the upper-90s consistently. Aside from Kevin Gausman, no one in their starting rotation has a track record of striking out more than a batter per inning. As strikeout rates around the league have skyrocketed, the Giants’ staff seems built for a different era.

Whiff-rate, calculated by dividing the number of swings-and-miss by the number of swings against a pitcher, is a strong evaluator of a pitcher’s stuff. MLB hitters are the best in the world. Even the most strikeout-prone hitters can make contact against below-average pitches. In 2020, the Giants pitching staff had the seventh-worst whiff rate in MLB, inducing misses on just 25.1% of opposing swings. If the first three games are the sign of a trend, their staff might have turned it around this year.

In their three games against Seattle, San Francisco’s pitchers induce swings-and-misses on 30.3% of swings, which would have been the third-best rate in MLB last season. For a pitching staff that struggled mightily, and appears to be the most obvious weakness on the roster heading into the season, that would be a fantastic swing in the right direction.

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There are no consolation prizes in professional sports. However, after dropping their first series of the regular season, the SF Giants have several positive takeaways from their first three games. While the team hopes to improve its record, if they continue hitting the ball hard and inducing opponent whiffs at above-average rates, they should be well prepared for success.

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SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season1. 16 swinging strikes (Johnny Cueto)

SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season2. 40.0% hard-hit rate

SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season3. 30.3% whiff-rate

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SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season
1. 16 swinging strikes (Johnny Cueto)

SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season
2. 40.0% hard-hit rate

SF Giants: 3 big numbers from the first series of the season
3. 30.3% whiff-rate