SF Giants: Five bold predictions for the 2021 season

After a long and uncertain offseason, the SF Giants regular season has finally gotten underway. Returning from a disappointing conclusion to the 2020 season, when the Giants finished a tie-breaker away from reaching the postseason, the franchise hopes to crack the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Of course, in the same division as the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, the team faces an uphill battle to contention.

Before the season got underway, I made five bold predictions for the Giants roster. However, with several roster moves and Opening Day coverage on my plate, I was unable to finish my write-up before the start of the regular season. Still, I wanted to make sure to return to it and explain my predictions.

SF Giants: 5 bold predictions for the 2021 season
1. Jake McGee amasses 20 saves for the first time

It may seem obvious after the first two games of the season, but I did write these predictions before Opening Day. Jake McGee has never recorded more than 19 saves in a season and entered the year with only 45 career saves across his 11-year MLB career. Given manager Gabe Kapler’s aversion to naming any reliever a “closer,” it was not out of the question that McGee could serve as a band-aid across high-leverage situations.

Statistically-inclined analysts have consistently vouched for this approach. Rather than limiting an elite reliever to one particular situation, a more flexible usage could help them more. While the Giants have solid depth in their bullpen, there’s no denying the lack of lockdown arms. At this point, McGee seems like their only true “shutdown” option.

For all of Kapler’s talk about innovative bullpen management, he’s actually stuck to a pretty consistent closer routine in San Francisco. Even though he never named a closer last season, Trevor Gott received almost every save opportunity until he imploded in consecutive outings. At that point, Tony Watson took over, receiving every save opportunity unless he had pitched the day before. McGee is easily the most proven arm in the Giants’ pen, and after just two games, most fans understand why he’ll probably receive the lion’s share of save opportunities this season.

SF Giants: 5 bold predictions for the 2021 season
2. Johnny Cueto posts an ERA below 4.00

The Johnny Cueto of 2016 may be gone for good, but I still believe he can be a solid mid-rotation arm. Cueto has not posted an ERA below 5.00 since 2018, but I saw many positives from Cueto’s 2020 season that left me inclined to bet on a late-career renaissance. Given his recent struggles, it would be a tremendous boon for the team if he could amass 170 innings and record a 4.25 ERA this year, but I see him reaching a higher ceiling.

Last season, Cueto finished the season with a strikeout rate that eclipsed 20% for the first time since 2017. Aside from punchouts, though, the rest of his performance was quite forgettable. Cueto completed 63.1 innings across 12 starts and posted a 5.40 ERA. His peripherals suggested he had suffered from some bad luck, but his FIP (4.64), xFIP (4.78), and xERA (4.83) left much to be desired.

A case for a Cueto bounceback starts with his strand rate (a.k.a LOB%). In 2020, only 63.3% of runners that reached base against Cueto were stranded, easily the worst of his career. League-average LOB% usually hovers between 72%-75%, with few pitchers maintaining large deviations for more than a season. Had opposing runners scored at a rate equivalent to Cueto’s career strand rate (76.2%), Cueto would have allowed 10 fewer runs. Assuming nine of those runs were earned, Cueto’s ERA would have been 4.12.

Beyond the mound, many other things went wrong last year that were magnified by the pandemic-shortened season. Take his start against the Dodgers on August 8th. Cueto had completed five no-hit innings against the loaded Dodgers lineup on just 75 pitches. His pitch location looked as strong as it had all season, and he looked on pace to at least reach the seventh inning. Then, to lead-off the sixth inning, Enrique Hernandez hit what should have been a routine flyball to left field. However, outfielder Hunter Pence couldn’t see it through the lights at Dodger Stadium. Instead of one out and nobody on base, Hernandez ended up with a lead-off triple, and Cueto fell apart. The top of that sixth inning was responsible for a 0.52 increase in Cueto’s 2020 ERA by itself.

Another wrinkle to Cueto’s 2020 was his struggles with rookie catcher Joey Bart. Without Buster Posey, every Giants pitcher lost the opportunity to work with the best backstop in franchise history last season. Now that Posey has returned, Cueto should once again benefit from his elite game-calling and pitch-framing ability. It’s hard to quantify how much of an impact that will make, but it should be another reason Cueto is set up for improvement.

Finally, Cueto’s pitch usage data from last season left plenty of room for growth. Opposing hitters teed off against his four-seam fastball, hitting .353 with a .647 slugging percentage against the pitch. However, his curveball, changeup, and sinker all performed like above-average pitches. Cueto’s three most-used secondary offerings generated opposing wOBA below .300 last season, something he had not done since 2014. Yet, even while his secondaries were his best pitches, Cueto threw his fastball more than any other pitch. On Friday, in Cueto’s first start of the season, he threw his four-seamer just 25 times in105 pitches.

SF Giants: 5 bold predictions for the 2021 season
4. Mauricio Dubón records more walks more than strikeouts

This prediction may be the least likely of the batch. As pitchers have gotten better and better throughout MLB, the prospect of a hitter walking more than they strikeout has become nearly impossible. The few who do have long track-records of working counts and drawing walks at elite rates. Mauricio Dubón does not.

Dubón has always been a contact-oriented hitter. In more than 2,600 minor-league plate appearances, he struck out just 12.8% of the time. He has not replicated quite that elite ball-to-bat ability in the majors, but Dubón has still managed an above-average 19.5% strikeout rate in 287 big-league plate appearances.

Yet, Dubón has always had an aggressive approach at the plate. Willing to swing early in counts, Dubón has struggled to draw walks. While most of the Giants’ acquisitions under the current president of baseball operations, Farhan Zaidi, have produced 10%-15% walk-rates over their careers, Dubón walked just 165 times during his time in the minors (6.3% rate). Those struggles carried over in his first 111 MLB plate appearances when Dubón drew just five free passes.

Last season, as pitchers gained more extensive scouting reports on Dubón’s free-swinging tendencies, the Honduran center fielder struggled mightily. In his first 17 games of the year, Dubón had struck out more than a quarter of the time, walked just once, and had a .200/.213/.289 triple-slash. However, he and the coaching staff worked on changing his approach. Over the rest of the season, Dubón not only posted a .811 OPS but also walked in 10.8% of his plate appearances, a rate he had never approached before.

This spring, manager Gabe Kapler and his coaching staff pointed out that Dubón had improved his approach more than anyone else on the roster. His spring training performance backed that up. In 49 preseason plate appearances, Dubón earned as many walks (10) as strikeouts (10). It’s a bold prediction to expect him to replicate such success over a full big-league season, but his eye has consistently improved since the Giants acquired him in 2019. It could pay massive dividends in 2021.

SF Giants: 5 bold predictions for the 2021 season
5. Evan Longoria has an OPS above .800

I have been all-in on Evan Longoria for some time now. Since he began consistently hitting the ball hard last season, I’ve argued he’s been playing on par with his peak years in Tampa Bay. A cursory look at Longoria’s recent statistics might make that seem absurd, but the underlying statistics suggest he’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in MLB.

Last season Yastrzemski posted a weighted on-base average (wOBA), a statistic that evaluates a player’s hitting production, of .407, nearly 100 points higher than Longoria’s .308 mark (.320 is considered league-average). However, Longoria’s expected wOBA, which uses a player’s batted-ball data to estimate their wOBA, was only five points less than Yastrzemski’s (.362 to .367, respectively). While Yaz was undeniably more productive than Longoria in 2020, there’s reason to believe their numbers should have been far more similar.

Longoria has eclipsed a .800 OPS just once in the past seven seasons and has not reached .765 since 2016. If Longo can hit the ball in 2021 like he did last year, he should easily surpass .800 and could push the .850-.900 marks he posted during his best seasons with the Rays from 2008-2012.

Already 35, there’s reason to be concerned about Longoria’s age. Thus far in 2021, though, he’s done everything he can to dispel those fears. This spring, Longoria hit .346/.414/.885, and the Long Beach State alum has already blasted a pair of home runs in the Giants’ first two games of the regular season. Offseason acquisition Tommy La Stella is a strong left-handed bat capable of playing third base. If Kapler manages things well, La Stella should spell Longoria enough to keep him as fresh as possible for the entirety of the season. That would be fantastic news for the Giants lineup.

Make sure to check back as the SF Giants season continues to see how Marc’s bold predictions pan out.