SF Giants: Wrenzie’s five 2021 draft prospects to watch

As we approach the end of March, 2021 MLB Draft season is already in full swing. Many prospects have already seen their places on draft boards shift based on growing samples of competitive games. Some have fallen, but some have risen to the point where the SF Giants have almost no chance of drafting them (so long, Sal Frelick).

While fellow prospect expert Marc Delucchi already listed five first-round prospects to watch, I wanted to offer my own opinions on some other prospects I think could end up highly ranked on the Giants draft board. Speaking of the Giants, they have the 14th pick in this summer’s draft. It remains unclear what direction they will go with their pick. Of course, they have little control over it.

Wrenzie has 5 draft prospects SF Giants fans should keep an eye on.

Picking in the middle of the first round gives the organization a couple of different options. They could target a late-first round prospect they really like and agree to a well-below slot deal to give them the flexibility to be aggressive later. On the other hand, they could also wait to see if anyone from the top of the draft slips to their pick and be ready to pounce.

There have been some notable trends from the Giants’ draft room in recent years. Marc and I have both detailed this in pieces of our own. While  I hope you check out our full articles, here’s a brief bullet-point list of the trends we’ve noticed. These trends inform our own speculation because teams generally follow similar patterns year to year.

Marc’s Draft Trends to Watch:

• No-costly relievers
• Final-season breakouts
• Three-year starters
• Spin over speed

Wrenzie’s Draft Trends:

• Under-slot first-round talents
• Strike zone control (for both hitters and pitchers)
• Unteachable traits (e.g., deception for pitchers and power for hitters)

Wrenzie’s 5 SF Giants Draft Prospects to Watch:
Zack Gelof, 3B, University of Virginia

Quick Ceiling Tool Grades: Hit 50 | Power 55 | Speed 50 | Arm 55 | Glove 45

Michael Holmes and the amateur scouting department have made their reputation spreading out their draft pool to maximize the depth of talent acquired via the draft. In doing so, they have targetted college hitters willing to take under-slot signing bonuses in the first round of the draft.

In the current landscape, I struggle to find a good fit for the Giants to target as an under-slot pick. Their draft range is currently littered with prep talent and college pitching (about time, Michael and Farhan!). However, I often come back to a guy that is a favorite of mine ever since diving into the draft class last year, Zack Gelof.

Gelof has traits that the Giants want their hitters to have: a strong eye and plate discipline (15 walks to 12 strikeouts this year) with plenty of power that he has yet to tap into in games consistently. The way Gelof swings the bat is very handsy, kind of reminiscent of Ian Kinsler, but he generates hard contact, and his pretty low hand set-up allows him to generate the launch angle to elevate. If he could use his lower half better, he could become an above-average power hitter.

Defensively, Gelof has the range, arm strength, and baseball IQ to stick at third base though I can see him being moved all over the dirt as he is athletic enough to do so. There are still things to iron out with his first step at the hot corner, but his present defense is decent, with the potential to improve.

The only thing that works against Gelof is his age (21.7 years old on draft day). Relatively old for his draft class, teams that rely on statistical models, like the Giants, might be hesitant to pull the trigger. However, we have seen the Giants go head over heels for a college performer with a rather average collection of tools and strong peripherals alongside potential defensive versatility. Yes, I am talking about Will Wilson.

Taking Gelof at 14 would be a reach, but with so many prep prospects that can be in play in the middle rounds of the draft, saving money while getting what I believe is a back-end 1st round talent in Gelof could potentially be in play.

Wrenzie’s 5 SF Giants Draft Prospects to Watch:
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University

Quick Ceiling Tool Grades: FB 50 | CH 70 | SL 45 | CB 40 | CMD 55

Over the past couple of years, the Giants have earned a “B for Boring” rating from me for their early-round hauls. The Hunter Bishop pick from 2019 was exciting, but what if Bishop was taken before the Giants made their pick? We could have possibly looked at a Will Wilson-Logan Wyatt duo in 2019 and a Patrick Bailey-Casey Schmitt duo last year. Not exactly a shot of adrenaline, right?

Well, I believe this year could be no different as they try to look to save bonus pool money with lower-ceiling players. Enter Jordan Wicks. He basically ticks most of the boxes in our trends to look for: he is a three-year starter for Kansas State, a spin-over-speed pitcher, and a potential money-saver.

His changeup is easily his best pitch, but before I talk about it, watch a highlight. It stands out.

His changeup is a disgusting pitch, and the folks from D1 Baseball have his changeup generating gyro action.

“What makes this pitch really unique is how it comes out of Wicks’ hand. It sits below 90% in spin efficiency (88.88%, 17th percentile), which tells us that he gets around this pitch a touch at release, making it profile more as a cut-change. Instead of getting just backspin and sidespin, there is an element of gyro spin (or “bullet spin”) here, which in turn kills the amount of vertical lift on the pitch.”

Yet, as unique as his changeup is, in my opinion, Wicks’ best trait is his absolute confidence and conviction with the pitch. He is willing to throw it in almost any count, and the data speaks for itself.

Wicks’ fastball velocity is only in the low-90s, but its above-average spin rate and ride help the pitch play above its velocity. While Wicks loves to throw his fastball low in the zone, he could actually benefit more if he started targeting his fastball up at the letters more often.

While Wicks fills the zone with strikes, the quality of his breaking balls are mediocre at best. His slider is a mid-80s pitch that is a tweener of a cutter and a slider in terms of movement and shape. His curveball is more of a show-me pitch at the moment. He will need to refine one of those pitches to be more than a back-end starter or long reliever.

There’s a decent chance that Wicks will be the pick if he is available for Holmes and company. Wicks may not have a high ceiling, but his excellent changeup, good enough fastball, and ability to fill the zone and offset a hitter’s timing gives him a solid chance of reaching the majors as a back-end starter sooner rather than later.

Wrenzie’s 5 SF Giants Draft Prospects to Watch:
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb H.S. (Georgia)

Quick Ceiling Tool Grades: Hit 45 | Power 55 | Speed 60 | Arm 60 | Glove 50

Given the recent draft trends of the current regime, it sounds pretty absurd to think that the Giants will draft a prep player with their first pick at a spot where they look to save some dollars in the bank. It is also ridiculously absurd to think that they will draft a catcher with their first pick in three of the last four years. But what if there is a catcher in the prep ranks that is just too good to pass up? That’s Harry Ford.

Simply put, Ford is a ballplayer. It is rare to find catchers who can run a 60-yard dash in 6.42 seconds and think they will stick behind the plate (like J.T. Realmuto), and Ford is one of those players. His lower half is thick, and he is so explosive not just in a straight line but also in his general movements. He has one of the quickest bats in the entire draft class with a slightly uphill swing path resulting from his low hand set-up in his batting stance.

Ford has above-average power to all fields and comes with its fair share of swing-and-miss. However, given his youth, there’s plenty of hope that he can improve it as he gets older.

Defensively, Ford remains full of potential. His arm and pop times are one of the best in the prep ranks. His receiving, blocking, and framing needs plenty of seasoning, but the potential to be an elite defensive catcher is there. Moreover, his athleticism could give him the potential to play in the outfield or infield as well.

If I am the one calling the shots in the draft room, I would greatly consider Ford’s tools and look for ways to put him in the field. Ford could turn out to be a uniquely talented catcher if he can develop to reach his full potential.

Wrenzie’s 5 SF Giants Draft Prospects to Watch:
James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (Florida)

Quick Ceiling Tool Grades: Hit 50 | Power 70 | Speed 55 | Arm 60 | Glove 50

Have you ever had that moment where you say, “wow, I want that player on my team” when you see a highlight? That is what happened when I saw this short clip.

That is a pitch right around young IMG Academy outfielder James Wood’s jawline. He not only made contact with it but drove it well over the right-field wall. Add in above-average speed and a plus arm, and I am all-in on Wood’s prospects.

When Wood squares a baseball, the exit velocity regularly registers in the triple digits. And get this, it is a handsy swing. Mostly relying on his wrists to do the work, and he still mashes baseballs. Once he starts to use his lower half better, he could reach another level entirely. While many around baseball struggle to elevate pitches high in the zone, Wood has the bat speed to still turn on pitches up as well.

That does have consequences. Wood’s height creates some obvious holes that pro pitching will take advantage of. However, he’s already shown growth in his pitch selection and strike-zone control. From what I saw in his 2021 clips, he is already making the strides necessary to develop an average hit tool, which would be more than enough to tap into his plus-plus power potential.

His speed could regress as he matures, but Wood’s defensive profile is somewhat similar to current Giants prospects Hunter Bishop. No center fielders look like either of them, but both have all the physical tools to be above-average big-league defenders. Only time will tell if they can maintain their athleticism as they develop.

If the Giants select Wood, I would be singing praises. This is a home run swing. Wood will be right in there with the most exciting prospects in the system the second he steps foot in the batter’s box.

Here, enjoy one more highlight for the road.

The first round of the 2021 MLB Draft is scheduled for June 11th. Until then, Wrenzie and Marc will keep you updated on all the intriguing prospects that could hear their names called with the SF Giants selection.