3 SF Giants who could lose their 40-man roster spot

As Opening Day approaches, the SF Giants will soon set their active roster for the regular season. With some obvious spots up for competition, the team’s front office will likely need to clear space on the 40-man roster. Usually, teams can place players who have suffered severe injuries on the 60-day injured list to clear space for new additions, but the Giants have already placed John Brebbia, Tyler Beede, and Dedniel Núñez on the 60-day IL.

Without any space on the 40-man roster, the Giants will have to designate a player for assignment if they want to add someone like Jason Krizan, Silvino Bracho, Nick Tropeano, Dominic Leone, or Scott Kazmir to the big-league roster. While it’s unlikely that the team will add more than a couple of those players, that would still displace two current members of the 40-man roster. If that happens, who is most at risk of losing their spot?

3 SF Giants who could lose their 40-man roster spot
1. Darin Ruf

Darin Ruf was one of the best stories on the Giants roster last season. Less than a year later, it’s hard to see him in San Francisco for the entire 2021 season. The 34-year old was exceptional at the plate last season, posting a .276/.370/.517 triple-slash, primarily against southpaws. Still, a career-high .322 BABIP and 23.8% home run-to-flyball rate suggest he was a beneficiary of some good luck.

Don’t get it twisted. Expected statistics, like xwOBA, rate Ruf as a squarely above-average hitter. Even if Brandon Belt starts the season on the injured list, Wilmer Flores, Jason Vosler, Tommy La Stella, LaMonte Wade Jr, and even Buster Posey are comfortable at first base with similar offensive profiles. Whenever Belt returns to his position as the everyday first baseman, it becomes harder to envision Ruf finding consistent at-bats.

This spring, Ruf has received the second-most plate appearances of any player on the Giants (right behind Vosler). While Vosler is hitting over .300, Ruf has struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances and generated a meager .229/.364/.371 triple-slash. If San Francisco did not have other options, Ruf has looked competent enough to earn an MLB roster spot. However, with so much competition in camp, he has to outhit the other players to make up for his defensive limitations. He has not done that.

Ruf would almost assuredly be claimed off waivers by another team. For Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, he might create some intriguing trade opportunities to acquire a lottery-ticket prospect from another organization. Zaidi has shown a tendency to be aggressive on the trade market towards the end of spring training and early into the regular season. Ruf, who remains under team control through arbitration for two years beyond 2021, seems like a piece he could look to move.

3 SF Giants who could lose their 40-man roster spot
2. Jaylin Davis

Since the Giants acquired Jaylin Davis from the Minnesota Twins at the 2019 trade deadline, he’s seen his stock oscillate more than anyone else in the organization. Over 126 games in the minors in 2019, Davis slugged 36 home runs and posted a .306/.397/.590 line. He hammered 10 home runs in 27 games following the trade and was soon promoted to the big-league roster. While his season was cut short after getting hit on the hand, Davis still managed to record an impressive sprint speed in the 97th percentile of all players.

Last season, Davis made the Giants Opening Day roster and hit his second career home run but was struggled to put the ball in play (striking out in six of his 12 plate appearances). Quickly optioned to the alternate site, Davis never got another chance at the big-league level. Instead, players like Steven Duggar and Luis Alexander Basabe received late-season opportunities when injuries depleted the Giants’ outfield.

Even after moving down the organizational depth chart, Davis ranked among the 31 best prospects in the Giants organization heading into the year. He is an above-average defender at all three outfield spots with plus range and an average arm while maintaining potential plus power if he can ever elevate the ball consistently.

The Giants’ player development tactics have been peculiar with Davis. He has called centerfield his best defensive position, but the Giants have deployed him primarily in right while giving less regarded defensive players like Wade and Mike Yastrzemski ample opportunities up-the-middle. The aforementioned promotion of Basabe suggests the Giants believe Davis still has some developmental hurdles to being a big-league contributor.

This spring has done little to help Davis’ case. He has struck out in 12 of his 22 plate appearances without a single walk or extra-base hit. The Giants have been willing to show young players patience as long as they walked and/or put the ball in play. Davis has struggled with both recently. With Basabe still in the organization and top prospect outfielder Heliot Ramos likely on the cusp of a big-league debut, the Giants will have the flexibility to expose one outfielder to waivers. Given the hints sent from the organization, Davis is the most likely to go.

San Francisco would hope Davis could clear waivers and work on his swing in the minor leagues, but Davis still has tremendous upside for a 26-year old who’s yet to really show much against MLB pitching. I’d expect a rebuilding team to place a claim on Davis and give him plenty of time to try and reach his potential. While he’d appeal to a different set of teams than Ruf, I could see the Giants moving Davis for a lower minor-league piece if he is going to fall victim to their roster crunch.