SF Giants: 3 Futures Bets Worth Considering

With Opening Day getting closer, fans around MLB might be contemplating betting on their favorite team. The SF Giants may not be World Series favorites or have a lot of star power, but there are some interesting futures worth considering. Three, in particular, stand out.

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*All odds are based on Bovada’s online sportsbook as of 3/12.*

3 SF Giants Futures Bets to Consider
1. Over 73.5 Wins (-130)

Implied Probability: 56.52%

Almost every major statistical projection has the Giants eclipsing their current over/under, even after considering their difficult schedule in the National League West. PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ projection system, is one of the lowest, projecting the team to win just 74.3 games. FanGraphs’ depth chart projections still give the Giants just a 5.0% chance of making the playoffs but project the team to win 77 games.

It’s hard to look at either projection and say either are “high” on the Giants. However, given how low the team’s over/under is, both projections still expect them to eclipse that number. The over is favored by Bovada’s line at -130, putting a break-even probability at just over 56.5%. In other words, a $10 bet would only win $7.69.

The limited wiggle room between PECOTA’s projection and the line probably makes it a bit less than a coin-flip by PECOTA’s projections alone. Still, FanGraphs’ four-victory gap between the line and their projections falls on the other side of things. Still, these projections are more useful guides than anything else.

As the season goes on, injuries, trades, and prospect promotions will obviously play a huge role in where teams ultimately fall in the standings. Projections solely focus on the roster as currently constructed. However, each organization’s depth will be tested. With a farm system on the rise, one of the deepest offenses in MLB, and a front-office that has shown a unique ability to find solid big-leaguers on the waiver wire, the Giants seem better positioned than teams like the Diamondbacks and Rockies to stay competitive even if they trade some of their proven pieces or suffer impactful injuries. The payout may not be great, but the Giants seem like a good bet to beat their over/under.

3 SF Giants Futures Bets to Consider
3. Buster Posey NL MVP (+10000)

Implied Probability: 0.99%

For those looking to put a little bit of money into nostalgia and a potentially massive payout, Giants fans might want to take a look at catcher Buster Posey’s National League Most Valuable Player award odds. In what will likely be his final year in a Giants’ uniform, Posey enters the season a deep sleeper for any award outside of Comeback Player of the Year. Yet, with a $10 bet offering a $1,000 payout, there might be a case that a modest bet is worth the risk.

Posey is nearly a decade removed from his lone MVP victory and three seasons removed from his last elite offensive performance. Still, a key component to the Giants’ success in 2020 was unexpected resurgent campaigns from several veteran starters during Kapler’s first year as manager. Below is a table that shows Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, and Brandon Belt’s change in average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), and on-base plus slugging (OPS) from 2019 to 2020.

There are reasons to look back on the 2020 season as a fluke. However, if you believe that Belt, Crawford, and Longoria’s offensive gains last season were influenced by manager Gabe Kapler’s coaching staff and the extended rest between the 2019 and 2020 season, there’s a case to be made that Posey is positioned to see a similar surge in 2021.

While 2019 was easily the worst offensive season of Posey’s career, if he improves his 2019 performances by the average amount Crawford, Longoria, and Belt did last year, Posey would post a 90.8 average exit-velocity, .341 xwOBA, and .812 OPS. STEAMER currently projects Posey to produce 2.3  WAR with just a .701 OPS. If he posts an OPS above .800, he might once again be the best catcher in MLB.

In the same league as players like Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr, Mookie Betts, and Fernando Tatís Jr, Posey will need far more than that to receive his second-career MVP award. Still, if Posey mimicked Belt’s surge in production, he would be back at his level of production in 2012, when he won the NL MVP.

Much like with Gausman, Posey also has an award narrative in his favor. No one considers the Giants a postseason favorite. Most have already eliminated from NL West contention. The Giants’ pitching staff is also considered a massive question. Given Posey’s reputation, if San Francisco contends in 2021, he will get a large amount of the credit, especially for any pitching success. Add in his defensive value and the lack of another well-known star on the roster, and the makings of a dark-horse MVP run are there if he can see a jump in his offensive production.

There are no obvious SF Giants futures bets to make, at least at this point. However, a modest over/under and incredibly low odds for awards give fans a few interesting futures to consider if they are looking at placing a bet on the Orange-and-Black.