With Opening Day getting closer, fans around MLB might be contemplating betting on their favorite team. The SF Giants may not be World Series favorites or have a lot of star power, but there are some interesting futures worth considering. Three, in particular, stand out.
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*All odds are based on Bovada’s online sportsbook as of 3/12.*
3 SF Giants Futures Bets to Consider
1. Over 73.5 Wins (-130)
Implied Probability: 56.52%
Almost every major statistical projection has the Giants eclipsing their current over/under, even after considering their difficult schedule in the National League West. PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ projection system, is one of the lowest, projecting the team to win just 74.3 games. FanGraphs’ depth chart projections still give the Giants just a 5.0% chance of making the playoffs but project the team to win 77 games.
It’s hard to look at either projection and say either are “high” on the Giants. However, given how low the team’s over/under is, both projections still expect them to eclipse that number. The over is favored by Bovada’s line at -130, putting a break-even probability at just over 56.5%. In other words, a $10 bet would only win $7.69.
The limited wiggle room between PECOTA’s projection and the line probably makes it a bit less than a coin-flip by PECOTA’s projections alone. Still, FanGraphs’ four-victory gap between the line and their projections falls on the other side of things. Still, these projections are more useful guides than anything else.
As the season goes on, injuries, trades, and prospect promotions will obviously play a huge role in where teams ultimately fall in the standings. Projections solely focus on the roster as currently constructed. However, each organization’s depth will be tested. With a farm system on the rise, one of the deepest offenses in MLB, and a front-office that has shown a unique ability to find solid big-leaguers on the waiver wire, the Giants seem better positioned than teams like the Diamondbacks and Rockies to stay competitive even if they trade some of their proven pieces or suffer impactful injuries. The payout may not be great, but the Giants seem like a good bet to beat their over/under.