SF Giants top prospects: No. 17 — 3B Casey Schmitt
Highest Level: NCAA (San Diego State)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40+
As with Logan Wyatt, Casey Schmitt was a selection I was far more critical of at the time of the draft than I am now. Schmitt was a two-way contributor at San Diego State, where he served as an everyday third baseman and high-leverage bullpen arm with a low-90s fastball and a nasty splitter. His pitching prowess will be easy fodder for broadcasts down the line, but it was his potential at the hot corner that made him the SF Giants second-round pick in last year’s draft.
Schmitt is a tools over production prospect. Something rare for a three-year starter in college. He has soft hands defensively at third base and obviously carries a plus arm. At the plate, Schmitt showed strong plate discipline and has legit plus power potential. In games, though, his power has never shown up with any consistency.
In 508 career collegiate plate appearances, Schmitt managed just 6 career home runs. In the wood bat Cape Cod League, Schmitt hit 5 big flies in just 149 trips to the plate, but his overall offensive production was not particularly impressive.
Only time will tell if the Giants player development staff can help Schmitt unlock his power. However, part of the reason I’ve grown on the pick is his pitching background. It’s not unreasonable to see Schmitt becoming a future fringe reliever and bench bat even if his power remains inconsistent. With a creative coaching staff and front office, like in San Francisco, that might allow him to consistently contribute 1.5-2.5 wins above replacement.
Schmitt is a rare combination of floor and ceiling from a collegiate prospect. While many were surprised by the selection, the more you look at him, the more you can see what the Giants are dreaming on. He remains further from becoming an everyday big-leaguer than most collegiate selections in the top-two rounds, but there’s enough upside to justify patience.