SF Giants Prospects: 15 Unranked Breakout Candidates

Marc Delucchi continues Around the Foghorn’s SF Giants prospect week with a ranking of 15 players that missed his top 31 prospects list but are best situated to rank among the team’s top-ten prospects in 2022.

Before I release my SF Giants’ top prospects ranking on Friday, I wanted to go over some of the players that ended up missing the cut. Rather than just continuing my rankings, I decided to rank the remaining players by their likelihood to rank among the top ten prospects in the Giants system at this time next year.

Again, this is NOT a ranking of the 15 best prospects outside of my top 31. To try and clarify how this changes things, imagine two players: Prospect Potential and Sure Thing.

Sure Thing has a 40 future-value grade because 100% of the time, they will become a competent big-league role player. On the other hand, Prospect Potential has a 35+ future-value grade because they project to be a career minor leaguer 95% of the time and an All-Star 5% of the time. Most prospect rankings would put Sure Thing above Prospect Potential, but in any one season,  Prospect Potential has a greater chance than Sure Thing to become one of the system’s best prospects.

Unranked SF Giants Prospects:15 Best Breakout Candidates

15. Grant McCray, CF

The Giants drafted Grant McCray out of high school in the third-round of 2019, and he held his own in his pro debut in Arizona. Most impressive of all, he walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances and posted a .379 on-base percentage against older competition. Still, even with a decent feel at the plate, he struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances and failed to impact the ball: posting a .065 isolated power. Plus speed is his carrying tool, and he should be at least average defensively in center, but until he drives the ball more, he probably projects as a fourth outfielder.

14. Diego Velasquez, SS/3B

Diego Velasquez, one of the organization’s costliest international signings in the 2020-21 cycle, has an advanced bat and broad frame that most believe is headed for the hot corner. The defensive questions give him an uphill battle to turn heads this early in his professional career. Still, a strong feel for the game and plus offensive potential could carry him to a breakout if he destroys lower-minors pitching.

13. Tyler Fitzgerald, Shortstop

A classic example of a prospect underrated by a ranking like this, Tyler Fitzgerald projects with 45 or 50-grade tools across the board. A likely utility infielder with second-division starter upside, Fitzgerald does not seem like the type of prospect set to take the minor leagues by storm. Instead, the fourth-round selection in 2019 will likely post a respectable .275/.340/.420-esque triple-slash line. Still, sometimes we underrate the potential of “safe” prospects. If Fitzgerald could find another level of power, his strong plate discipline and defensive versatility could change how he’s viewed quite quickly.

12. Esmerlin Vinicio, LHP

Gauging which recent international free agents are best situated for breakouts was a difficult task. Since all of them are extremely young and early in their development, they’re likely to be most impacted by condensed minor-leagues seasons (since the lowest levels already have shorter seasons). That led me to move southpaw Esmerlin Vinicio up the rankings first since it’s far easier for a pitcher to make a big impression in a small sample than a hitter. However, I ultimately moved him back down a bit because of where he’s at in his development. Vinicio could be one of the most exciting pitchers in the system, but I believe it will take at least another year before he’s far enough along to get premium attention.

11.  Conner Nurse, RHP

Conner Nurse is still a major question mark, having not pitched above Salem-Keizer, but that volatility works in his favor on a list like this. The Giants gave him a $250,000 signing bonus in 2017 to sign out of high school. At the time, he flashed a low-90s fastball with an advanced curveball and a decent feel for a changeup. A lanky 6’6”-frame left the room to dream plenty more projection as well. Since turning pro, he’s struck out nearly a batter per inning without egregious walk-rates, something rare for a pitcher of his age. Still, there’s been relatively little mention of Nurse from those around the industry. He’s still just 21-years old and would probably have reached full-season ball last year in a normal season. Without a deep group of starting pitching prospects already in the organization, Nurse could be well situated to become a well-known name among fans quickly with a strong full-season debut.

Unranked SF Giants Prospects:15 Best Breakout Candidates

10. P.J. Hilson, CF

An over-slot sign in the 6th round of the 2018 draft, P.J. Hilson has looked undeniably overmatched in two rookie-ball seasons, striking out in more than 36.6% of his plate appearances. However, he will not turn 21 until August and carries the most impressive combination of speed and arm strength in the system alongside above-average power potential. Kevin Kiermaier is a career .248/.307/.413 hitter, and yet, he’s averaged more than 4.1 WAR per 162 games*. Billy Hamilton has averaged 2.0 WAR per 162 despite an incredibly mediocre .241/.296/.325 triple-slash. The ways Hilson could contribute are immensely different than the other outfielders in the system. However, he does not need to develop an elite bat to become an impact prospect.

*WAR numbers from FanGraphs

9. R.J. Dabovich, RHP

A below-slot signing in the fourth-round of this year’s draft, R.J. Dabovich is a powerful right-handed pitcher with premium fastball velocity and elite spin on both his fastball and breaking ball. I was hoping the Giants would give Dabovich a chance to start, but the player development staff has seemed to push him to the bullpen. Still, if Camilo Doval continues struggling to find consistency, Dabovich could quickly become the best relief-prospect in the system.

8. Aeverson Arteaga, SS

A far superior defender to Velasquez, Aeverson Arteaga is an above-average athlete with a good feel on the infield dirt. That defensive prowess will already get him noticed by scouts. His offensive projection is limited, but if he shows any ability to consistently impact the ball in his debut, his stock will rise quickly. Velasquez will have to excel offensively to get attention without a major shift in his defensive projection. This early in development, evaluators are usually quicker to bet on defensive prowess than offensive projection. Plus, Arteaga was signed a year prior and has had more time to begin developing as a pro. That gives Arteaga the edge.

7. Alexander Suarez, OF

Alexander Suarez is a plus athlete with an inconsistent approach at the plate. Injuries hampered his first professional season in 2019, but he still posted a .959 OPS in 12 games in the Dominican Summer League. Players like Suarez, who seemed particularly in need of professional plate appearances to spark their development, will be interesting to watch when they return from the minor-league layoff. It could set him back, but if he made the necessary improvements in the time off, he could take a massive step forward.

6. Jimmy Glowenke, Infielder

Jimmy Glowenke’s path to a top-ten ranking in 2022 is probably the most straightforward of anyone on this list: mash. He’s not elite defensively, probably has below-average speed, and might be limited to second base. But one industry source I spoke with described him as a “baby Jedd Gyorko” with enough offensive potential to garner plenty of attention. Gyorko bashed his way to the big leagues in just two minor-league seasons, and Glowenke could find himself shooting up rankings if he follows a similar trajectory.