SF Giants: 5 Recent Draft Trends to Watch

Marc Delucchi continues Around the Foghorn’s SF Giants prospect week with a look at the organization’s draft trends over the past two years.

It has been less than three years since Farhan Zaidi was hired as the SF Giants president of baseball operations. However, even in that short amount of time, the organization is in a far different place than when he was hired. Zaidi’s front-office has acquired top-flight MLB talents like Mike Yastrzemski, Kevin Gausman, Donovan Solano, and Alex Dickerson for relatively minimal cost. On the minor-league side, they’ve overseen the farm system move closer to becoming one of the best in baseball.

While Zaidi’s work in free agency and trades has gotten the vast majority of attention, any changes to the Giants’ approach to the MLB Draft would have even larger implications for the franchise during his tenure. In the winter of 2018, Zaidi oversaw a transition at the helm of the Giants’ draft room.

How has the SF Giants’ drafting changed under Michael Holmes?

The previous amateur scouting director, John Barr, oversaw the Giants’ drafts from 2008-2018. Barr was responsible for drafting Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Joey Bart, and dozens of other future big leaguers. However, upon Zaidi’s hiring, he shifted to a special assistant role and was replaced by Michael Holmes.

Originally hired by the Oakland Athletics as an area scout, Holmes quickly ascended the A’s amateur scouting chain of command, becoming their assistant scouting director in 2009. Until the Giants hired him in the winter of 2018, Holmes worked alongside A’s scouting director Eric Kubota during the team’s selection of Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Max Muncy, and many other future contributors.

Holmes has only been in charge of the Giants draft room for the past two years. At this point, it’s unfair to identify any tendencies in the Giants’ selections under his watch with much certainty. Two drafts are already a small sample, and it became even smaller when the 2020 draft was condensed to five rounds. Still, it’s worth trying to identify some patterns worth watching in 2021 and beyond.

SF Giants Draft Trends
1. No High-Cost Relievers

High-powered (often wild) relievers were a staple of Barr’s draft tenure. Over the 11 drafts he oversaw, the Giants selected pitchers Heath Hembree, Jason Stoffel, Bryce Bandilla, Christopher Marlowe, Steven Okert, Chase Johnson, and Dan Slania in the first five rounds. Most of them never received an extended opportunity to start in college, and all seven were primary relievers during their final amateur season.

In fact, the Giants drafted 19 pitchers in the top ten rounds under Barr who were either primary relievers their final year in college or were immediately moved to the bullpen by the organization. The 2011 draft remains the starkest example of this approach. The Giants drafted Bandilla (fourth round), Marlowe (fifth), Ray Black (seventh), and Derek Law (ninth), who combined to start zero collegiate games the year they were drafted. Furthermore, the Giants drafted Oregon State starter Josh Osich in the sixth round and immediately converted him to a reliever.

The organization attempted to transition players like Bandilla, Marlowe, and Johnson to starting but found no long-term success. Most starting pitching prospects end up in a big-league bullpen already; Kyle Crick and Sam Coonrod are two recent examples from the Giants organization. Prioritizing players already pitching in relief seems like an obvious high-risk proposition without the necessary upside to justify a move.

The Giants have only drafted four pitchers in the top ten rounds in Holmes’ two drafts. R.J. Dabovich, the Giants’ fourth-round pick in 2021, was moved to the bullpen his last college season and seems likely to stay there as a professional. However, changes to the draft’s rules make his selection noticeably different than most under Barr.

In the most recent iteration of the draft, teams are allotted a pool of spending money that they cannot exceed by more than 4.95% without forfeiting future picks. In a normal year, the system incentivizes teams to select players who will sign for a well-below slot signing bonus in rounds 7-10 while going above slot with players later.

In the condensed 2020 draft, Dabovich accepted a below-slot bonus that helped the team sign southpaw starters Kyle Harrison and Nick Swiney to above-slot deals. For the majority of Barr’s bullpen selections, this system was not in place. Instead, the organization seemed keen on prioritizing relievers in the draft. It’s still too early to tell if that will carry over to Holmes, but thus far, he’s shied away from drafting relievers with his most valuable picks.

SF Giants Draft Trends
3. Three-Year Starters

While Holmes’ drafts may have focused on players that took major strides in their final year of draft eligibility, that has not meant shying away from players with extensive college experience. In fact, it’s meant the opposite. Throughout the Giants’ past two drafts, they have targetted players that filled large roles on their college teams for at least three years. While that’s obviously the norm for top selections, it remained true for later-round picks like Carter Aldrete and Javeyan Williams.

This could be a short-term symptom of the Giants’ front-office turnover. Even with noticeable carryover from the previous regime, the Giants have still undergone significant turnover in their front-office and scouting ranks. It’s plausible that has led the team to prioritize players top executives were most familiar with. Many have pointed out that the Giants have invested significant capital in three players from North Carolina State. Holmes made his name scouting throughout the Carolinas and remains one of the most trusted evaluators of players in that region.

There’s a certain level of self-selection in this. Players that end up getting drafted are usually the best players on their high school teams and enter college as highly-ranked recruits. More draft picks are going to get early-career opportunities than not. However, extended playing time could become integral for the Giants if they prioritize players with draft-year breakouts. If players are not on the field early in their careers, it becomes far more difficult to identify if they significantly improved or found lightning in the bottle to post a strong draft-year performance.

SF Giants Draft Trends
4. Holmes Drafts Hitters A Lot Like Barr

A common misnomer about the Giants’ drafts under Barr remains that they never drafted high-upside players with impressive tools. It’s an easy explanation for the dearth of homegrown impact players over the past decade in San Francisco, but it’s just not true. For most of Barr’s tenure, the Giants consistently targeted collegiate hitters with massive power potential in the first five rounds of the draft. While players like Chris Dominguez, Brian Ragira, Roger Kieschnick, Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker, Ricky Oropesa, Dylan Davis, and Chris Shaw never became 30+ home run hitters in San Francisco, it wasn’t because of a lack of potential.

For all the criticism so-called “low-ceiling, high-floor” first-round selections like Joe Panik and Christian Arroyo received, Barr selected toolsy outfielders like Gary Brown and Heliot Ramos with top picks as well.

In fact, there have been quite a few similarities between the Giants selections under Holmes with those under Barr. Perhaps that’s not too surprising. Barr had strong success selecting position players throughout his tenure. Aside from future cornerstones like Posey and Crawford, players like Matt Duffy and Adam Duvall carved out solid big-league careers after being picked far lower as well.

Holmes made a point of reaching out to Barr when he was hired and has kept him in the team’s brain trust. The Giants’ selections have reflected that influence. 2020 first-round pick Hunter Bishop shares the bigtime power potential Barr so often coveted but comes with concerns about his ability to make consistent contact that is quite reminiscent of Barr’s final first-round selection as scouting director: Joey Bart.

Bishop isn’t the lone Holmes’ selection with that power over hit profile. Armani Smith and Connor Cannon were a pair of collegiate hitters drafted in 2019 that follow in the footsteps of players like Williamson and Dominguez.

Yet, aside from Bishop, the majority of top collegiate hitters drafted by the Giants over the past two cycles have fallen in line with the “low-ceiling, high-floor” labels so often thrust upon the previous regime’s drafts. 2020 first-round selection Patrick Bailey projects as an above-average everyday catcher but lacks the elite tools often found in a first-round pick. The same could be said of other high-round selections like Logan Wyatt, Casey Schmitt, and Jimmy Glowenke.

For fans hoping for a massive change in the Giants’ approach to drafting hitters under Holmes, there’s little evidence that has happened. However, given Barr’s strong track record of finding big-league talent on offense, it very well could be for the best.

SF Giants Draft Trends
5. Spin Over Speed

Pitching has been home to the most obvious changes under Zaidi at the MLB level. It has clearly carried through the rest of the organization. While Barr consistently prioritized hitters at the top of the draft, when he pulled the trigger on an arm, fastball velocity was almost always at a premium. Zack Wheeler, Beede, Bickford, and Kyle Crick were the lone pitchers drafted in the first round (or first supplemental round) during Barr’s time as amateur scouting director. All four flashed upper-90s fastball velocity in the lead-up to the draft. Most of the relievers drafted under Barr carried premium fastball velo as well.

Under Holmes, Dabovich remains the lone pitcher selected in the top-15 rounds to flash a premium fastball before the draft. Instead, the Giants have coveted starters with fastballs sitting in the low-90s paired with an advanced breaking ball. Beyond pitchers like McDonald, Harrison, and Swiney, the hurlers selected from rounds 5-15 like Ryan Wright, Caleb Kilian, Chris Wright, and Nick Morreale matched this profile as well.

Even a deeper look at Dabovich shows a strong connection to other pitchers the Giants have drafted. While his fastball touching 100 mph will get most of the attention, he has worked extensively to maximize his fastball and breaking ball’s spin efficiency. If you’re trying to explain why Dabovich has been the lone reliever selected highly under Holmes, the velocity is probably secondary to his advanced ability to spin both his fastball and breaking ball.

The Giants have not selected a pitcher in the first two rounds of the draft since Holmes/Zaidi have joined the organization, for what it’s worth. Velocity almost always comes at a premium. It’s possible that the Giants have been high on some pitchers with big-time velocity but just chosen to allocate their spending elsewhere. However, given the nearly identical trend in additions to the big-league pitching staff, it’s easier to be confident in this continuing.

Around the Foghorn’s SF Giants prospects week is just getting started. Make sure to check back for more articles about the franchise’s farm system alongside our usual Spring Training coverage.