SF Giants: 5 Recent Draft Trends to Watch

SF Giants Draft Trends
1. No High-Cost Relievers

High-powered (often wild) relievers were a staple of Barr’s draft tenure. Over the 11 drafts he oversaw, the Giants selected pitchers Heath Hembree, Jason Stoffel, Bryce Bandilla, Christopher Marlowe, Steven Okert, Chase Johnson, and Dan Slania in the first five rounds. Most of them never received an extended opportunity to start in college, and all seven were primary relievers during their final amateur season.

In fact, the Giants drafted 19 pitchers in the top ten rounds under Barr who were either primary relievers their final year in college or were immediately moved to the bullpen by the organization. The 2011 draft remains the starkest example of this approach. The Giants drafted Bandilla (fourth round), Marlowe (fifth), Ray Black (seventh), and Derek Law (ninth), who combined to start zero collegiate games the year they were drafted. Furthermore, the Giants drafted Oregon State starter Josh Osich in the sixth round and immediately converted him to a reliever.

The organization attempted to transition players like Bandilla, Marlowe, and Johnson to starting but found no long-term success. Most starting pitching prospects end up in a big-league bullpen already; Kyle Crick and Sam Coonrod are two recent examples from the Giants organization. Prioritizing players already pitching in relief seems like an obvious high-risk proposition without the necessary upside to justify a move.

The Giants have only drafted four pitchers in the top ten rounds in Holmes’ two drafts. R.J. Dabovich, the Giants’ fourth-round pick in 2021, was moved to the bullpen his last college season and seems likely to stay there as a professional. However, changes to the draft’s rules make his selection noticeably different than most under Barr.

In the most recent iteration of the draft, teams are allotted a pool of spending money that they cannot exceed by more than 4.95% without forfeiting future picks. In a normal year, the system incentivizes teams to select players who will sign for a well-below slot signing bonus in rounds 7-10 while going above slot with players later.

In the condensed 2020 draft, Dabovich accepted a below-slot bonus that helped the team sign southpaw starters Kyle Harrison and Nick Swiney to above-slot deals. For the majority of Barr’s bullpen selections, this system was not in place. Instead, the organization seemed keen on prioritizing relievers in the draft. It’s still too early to tell if that will carry over to Holmes, but thus far, he’s shied away from drafting relievers with his most valuable picks.

SF Giants Draft Trends
2. Final-Year Breakouts

The most significant change in the Giants’ evaluations of draft prospects from Barr to Holmes might not be the type of profile they target but how each player builds their profile. Barr prioritized consistency and prolonged collegiate success. Holmes has done the opposite, betting on players that showed massive improvements the year of the draft.

In 2019 alone, the Giants drafted five players in the top ten rounds that improved their OPS by at least 165 points in their year of draft eligibility from the season prior. The organization never drafted three players that had shown such a draft-year improvement in the top ten rounds under Barr. In fact, San Francisco often prioritized hitters with first-year or sophomore success that had seen their stock regress.

The disparate priorities of long-term success and recent growth have played out on the pitching side as well. The Giants have prioritized pitchers like Trevor McDonald and Swiney in the past two drafts. McDonald, a prep-righty, saw his draft stock explode after a noticeable jump in velocity his senior-year. Swiney moved to the NC State rotation in 2020 after showing flashes of dominance out of the bullpen in his previous two seasons. A dominant four-starts before the cancellation of the collegiate season was enough to entice the Giants to pay Swiney second-round money.

Such quick shifts in stock rest in stark contrast to the Giants’ selections of players like Andrew Suarez, Phil Bickford, and Tyler Beede, three pitchers selected in the top-two rounds under Barr that had previously been selected (but went unsigned) in the same round.

The Giants have had success betting on players with draft-year slides; Crawford remains the strongest example. However, there have been a massive number of underwhelming pro careers as well. It’s worth noting that none of the hitters the Giants drafted in 2020 showed substantial statistical improvements the spring before the draft. Still, given the nature of the pandemic shortened season, it seems likely to be a blip moving forward.

SF Giants Draft Trends
3. Three-Year Starters

While Holmes’ drafts may have focused on players that took major strides in their final year of draft eligibility, that has not meant shying away from players with extensive college experience. In fact, it’s meant the opposite. Throughout the Giants’ past two drafts, they have targetted players that filled large roles on their college teams for at least three years. While that’s obviously the norm for top selections, it remained true for later-round picks like Carter Aldrete and Javeyan Williams.

This could be a short-term symptom of the Giants’ front-office turnover. Even with noticeable carryover from the previous regime, the Giants have still undergone significant turnover in their front-office and scouting ranks. It’s plausible that has led the team to prioritize players top executives were most familiar with. Many have pointed out that the Giants have invested significant capital in three players from North Carolina State. Holmes made his name scouting throughout the Carolinas and remains one of the most trusted evaluators of players in that region.

There’s a certain level of self-selection in this. Players that end up getting drafted are usually the best players on their high school teams and enter college as highly-ranked recruits. More draft picks are going to get early-career opportunities than not. However, extended playing time could become integral for the Giants if they prioritize players with draft-year breakouts. If players are not on the field early in their careers, it becomes far more difficult to identify if they significantly improved or found lightning in the bottle to post a strong draft-year performance.

SF Giants Draft Trends
4. Holmes Drafts Hitters A Lot Like Barr

A common misnomer about the Giants’ drafts under Barr remains that they never drafted high-upside players with impressive tools. It’s an easy explanation for the dearth of homegrown impact players over the past decade in San Francisco, but it’s just not true. For most of Barr’s tenure, the Giants consistently targeted collegiate hitters with massive power potential in the first five rounds of the draft. While players like Chris Dominguez, Brian Ragira, Roger Kieschnick, Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker, Ricky Oropesa, Dylan Davis, and Chris Shaw never became 30+ home run hitters in San Francisco, it wasn’t because of a lack of potential.

For all the criticism so-called “low-ceiling, high-floor” first-round selections like Joe Panik and Christian Arroyo received, Barr selected toolsy outfielders like Gary Brown and Heliot Ramos with top picks as well.

In fact, there have been quite a few similarities between the Giants selections under Holmes with those under Barr. Perhaps that’s not too surprising. Barr had strong success selecting position players throughout his tenure. Aside from future cornerstones like Posey and Crawford, players like Matt Duffy and Adam Duvall carved out solid big-league careers after being picked far lower as well.

Holmes made a point of reaching out to Barr when he was hired and has kept him in the team’s brain trust. The Giants’ selections have reflected that influence. 2020 first-round pick Hunter Bishop shares the bigtime power potential Barr so often coveted but comes with concerns about his ability to make consistent contact that is quite reminiscent of Barr’s final first-round selection as scouting director: Joey Bart.

Bishop isn’t the lone Holmes’ selection with that power over hit profile. Armani Smith and Connor Cannon were a pair of collegiate hitters drafted in 2019 that follow in the footsteps of players like Williamson and Dominguez.

Yet, aside from Bishop, the majority of top collegiate hitters drafted by the Giants over the past two cycles have fallen in line with the “low-ceiling, high-floor” labels so often thrust upon the previous regime’s drafts. 2020 first-round selection Patrick Bailey projects as an above-average everyday catcher but lacks the elite tools often found in a first-round pick. The same could be said of other high-round selections like Logan Wyatt, Casey Schmitt, and Jimmy Glowenke.

For fans hoping for a massive change in the Giants’ approach to drafting hitters under Holmes, there’s little evidence that has happened. However, given Barr’s strong track record of finding big-league talent on offense, it very well could be for the best.

SF Giants Draft Trends
5. Spin Over Speed

Pitching has been home to the most obvious changes under Zaidi at the MLB level. It has clearly carried through the rest of the organization. While Barr consistently prioritized hitters at the top of the draft, when he pulled the trigger on an arm, fastball velocity was almost always at a premium. Zack Wheeler, Beede, Bickford, and Kyle Crick were the lone pitchers drafted in the first round (or first supplemental round) during Barr’s time as amateur scouting director. All four flashed upper-90s fastball velocity in the lead-up to the draft. Most of the relievers drafted under Barr carried premium fastball velo as well.

Under Holmes, Dabovich remains the lone pitcher selected in the top-15 rounds to flash a premium fastball before the draft. Instead, the Giants have coveted starters with fastballs sitting in the low-90s paired with an advanced breaking ball. Beyond pitchers like McDonald, Harrison, and Swiney, the hurlers selected from rounds 5-15 like Ryan Wright, Caleb Kilian, Chris Wright, and Nick Morreale matched this profile as well.

Even a deeper look at Dabovich shows a strong connection to other pitchers the Giants have drafted. While his fastball touching 100 mph will get most of the attention, he has worked extensively to maximize his fastball and breaking ball’s spin efficiency. If you’re trying to explain why Dabovich has been the lone reliever selected highly under Holmes, the velocity is probably secondary to his advanced ability to spin both his fastball and breaking ball.

The Giants have not selected a pitcher in the first two rounds of the draft since Holmes/Zaidi have joined the organization, for what it’s worth. Velocity almost always comes at a premium. It’s possible that the Giants have been high on some pitchers with big-time velocity but just chosen to allocate their spending elsewhere. However, given the nearly identical trend in additions to the big-league pitching staff, it’s easier to be confident in this continuing.

Around the Foghorn’s SF Giants prospects week is just getting started. Make sure to check back for more articles about the franchise’s farm system alongside our usual Spring Training coverage.