SF Giants: Should They Have Traded for Blake Snell?

Why the SF Giants should have traded for Blake Snell

Right now, the SF Giants are continually “retooling” to compete the best they can at the major league level, as they have their eyes set on a playoff run in 2021—probably via a wild card spot. Blake Snell certainly could have made the Giants better in 2021.

Picture for a moment Snell starting for San Francisco in that all-too exciting Wild Card game a few months from now between the “exceeds expectations” Giants and the “we tried to tank the best we could but accidentally got here anyway” Chicago Cubs.

But the Giants are also trying to rebuild into a sustainable winner capable of competing with the Dodgers and Padres for division titles and World Series championships eventually. Snell, under contract for three more seasons, could’ve helped there too.

This rebuild towards sustainably winning is being propelled by one of the better farm systems in baseball—and it is still on the rise. The rebuild will be further aided by the many contracts coming off the books after 2021, allowing the Giants to be more aggressive in free agency.

And Zaidi’s goal and demonstrated skill for making “one good baseball move after another” could help make sustainable winning a reality sooner than many anticipate.

To any Giants fans calling for a twenty-year rebuild, let me remind you that the Padres went from losing 92 games in 2019 to being one of the best teams in baseball today. Considering the Giants’ own ascending farm system and deep pockets, it is not unreasonable to suggest that they could be threatening the Dodgers and Padres before Snell reaches free agency after 2023.

So, trading for Blake Snell certainly could have boosted their chances of toppling their division rivals in the next few years.

And, despite their strong farm system, the Giants don’t have a clear ace in the making. In fact, their minor league pitching depth, on the whole, is somewhat of a weak spot. Giants’ general manager Scott Harris even recently admitted to this in a discussion made available on Youtube with Zaidi, manager Gabe Kapler, and San Francisco’s first-rate announcers.

Snell could have potentially remedied this. He broke out as a bonafide ace in 2018 when he won the Cy Young award and topped baseball with a 1.89 ERA. Since then, he has struggled at times to reach his demonstrated ace-potential. He posted a 4.29 ERA in 2019 when he was limited to 107 innings due to elbow surgery.

Still, he rebounded closer to his 2018 level of success in MLB’s shortened 2020 season to the tune of a 3.24 ERA in 50 innings. And he certainly showed off his ace-potential in Game 6 of the 2020 Fall Classic when he silenced the Dodgers bats until his premature exit in the sixth inning.

Let former Rays starter Matt Moore remind us that nothing is guaranteed, regardless of former success. But I also wouldn’t bet against Snell’s chances of being a frontline rotation starter going forward because of his youth and track record.

So why trade for Snell? It is ultimately pretty simple:

Blake Snell could likely have been the Giants’ much-needed ace if they had traded for him, and even more importantly, he could have filled that role in San Francisco through 2023 in his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons.

Why the SF Giants should not have traded for Blake Snell

If the SF Giants had traded for Blake Snell, they would have been doing so in hopes he could help lead a team fueled by their strong farm system. But trading for Snell may have depleted that farm system too much to stomach, especially since their eventual title-contention hopes rest on their farm system’s success.

To put it simply, the Padres gave up a lot to get Snell. They parted with prized 21-year-old RHP Luis Patiño, who MLB.com ranks as the 23rd best prospect in baseball. 2020 3rd round draft pick RHP Cole Wilcox, only 21 years old and considered by many to be a first-round talent, was included. Also traded was a 25-year-old bounce-back candidate in catcher Francisco Mejia, an elite prospect as recently as 2018 when he was ranked the 26th best prospect in baseball by MLB.com. The package’s final piece was catcher Blake Hunt, formerly the Padres 14th best prospect as rated by MLB.com.

Considering that this was the package it took to land Snell, what might a similar package from the Giants have looked like? I’m throwing shots in the dark here, but such an exercise may illuminate why the Giants had good reason to not pursue Snell.

The centerpiece of a Giants’ trade package could have been Joey Bart. Like Patiño, he is a consensus top prospect in baseball, and he would have filled the Rays’ obvious need and desire for catching. Like Wilcox, Kyle Harrison was paid like a first-round talent in the 2020 draft who fell to the 3rd round.

Logan Webb is obviously not a catcher and never was regarded as well as Mejia was. Still, like Mejia, he is a former well-regarded prospect who has had recent struggles at the major league level. Webb doesn’t have Mejia’s pedigree, but he has had more recent success, so let’s add him to our imaginary package. And let’s cap off this package with Will Wilson in place of Hunt.

Of course, the Rays may have no interest in any of these players. Maybe Webb’s low spin rates and intense pitching face are dealbreakers for Tampa. Maybe Wilson once got in such a bad fight with the consensus top prospect in baseball, Rays’ Wander Franco, over DMs that the Rays wouldn’t even consider trading for him now. Or maybe there are other reasons (maybe even baseball reasons) that this package, and possibly other similar Giants packages, wouldn’t have been enough to sway the Rays.

Maybe if the Giants had entered the bidding, it would’ve driven the price up so high the Rays could have had their choice between San Francisco’s teenage uber-prospect Marco Luciano (MLB.com’s 29th ranked prospect) and MacKenzie Gore. Yikes.

Or I might have simply chosen all the wrong players, and both front offices would be laughing at me right now. If you’re laughing at me too, I hear you. My insight might not be completely flawless. And don’t hold me to this package!

All mentions of Webb’s pitching face, DM fights, and joking aside, I do think this package is roughly representative of what the Giants could have done to match the Padres offer—to guarantee landing Snell, they likely would have needed to give up more.

In any case of the Giants’ trading for Snell, parting with a top prospect like Bart and a few other good young players such as Webb and Wilson would almost certainly be givens.

And what may have been even harder to stomach would have been giving up another highly regarded prospect such as 19-year-old Harrison, who is on the rise with plus command and a fastball which recently topped out at 97 mph at instructional league.

Even if it wasn’t Harrison the Giants would have given up, judging by Wilcox’s inclusion in the Padres package, the Giants would have required to give up another top-10 prospect. That could have been one prospect too high in cost.

So ultimately, regardless of what specific package the Giants gave up, it probably would’ve been a lot.  And a lot would have been too much for this Giants team right now to afford.

The Padres may be realistically competing for a world championship right now, so win-now moves at such high costs in prospects make sense for them at this time (especially considering the might of their farm system).

But the Giants are probably a year, or two, or three away from sustainably competing with the Padres and Dodgers for world championships.

SF Giants will need to ride their farm system to reach those heights in the coming years, so despite Blake Snell’s potential, trading for him probably would have cost too much in that department to make such a trade worthwhile.