SF Giants Retrospective: Re-Ranking The Top Ten 2010 Prospects

In the Spring of 2010, the SF Giants had one of the best farm systems in baseball. Now that we know what happened, how would those prospects rank now?

It’s been over a decade since the SF Giants won their first World Series in the city by the Bay. Looking back, the Giants farm system consistently ranked among the best in baseball from 2008-2011. Of course, things would work out alright for the franchise in the years to come.

However, before all that, the Giants headed into the 2010 season off a solid 88-74 campaign without having reached the postseason since 2003. It had been over 50 years since their franchise’s last World Series victory. With several top prospects left in their minor leagues, many were on the cusp of their MLB breakouts.

More than a decade later, we have decided to look back and re-rank the organization’s ten best prospects at the time. Prospects are normally ranked based on their future-value grade on the scouting 20-80 scale. However, now, a grade represents the results of their big-league career.

80: Top 5 player in baseball (8+ WAR per season at peak)
70: Top 10 player in baseball (5-8 WAR)
60: All-Star (3.5-5 WAR)
55: Above-average everyday player (2.5-3.5 WAR)
50: Everyday player (1.5-2.5 WAR)
45: Platoon player (0.5-1.5 WAR)
40: MLB backup (0.2-0.5 WAR)
35: Quad-A player (-0.2-0.2 WAR)
30: Triple-A player
20: Organizational player

All WAR values are from FanGraphs.

SF Giants Top 10 Prospects In 2010
#1 Buster Posey, C

Grade: 80
2010 Baseball America Rank: 1
Career WAR: 52.7
WAR Per 162 Games: 6.79

I mean… who else could this be? Posey would win the Rookie of the Year in 2010 and help carry the Giants to the first of three championships in five seasons. Even after suffering a catastrophic injury in 2011, Posey returned to carry the team to another title in 2012 en route to the Most Valuable Player award.

At the moment, Posey’s Hall of Fame case may not be as strong as most might expect. However, he was undeniably the best player at his position in the 2010s and has accumulated the second most WAR in baseball from 2010 through 2020. Assuming he can continue to be a competent catcher for a few more seasons, his case for Cooperstown should be complete. A resurgence to some of his early-career form would begin to put him in the conversation as one of the best catchers in MLB history.

SF Giants Top 10 Prospects In 2010
#2 Madison Bumgarner, LHP

Grade: 65
2010 Baseball America Rank: 2
Career WAR: 30.7
WAR Per 30 Starts: 3.09

From 2010-2012 Bumgarner was a strong 60 grade player before his peak from 2013-2016 that deserves a 70 grade. However, his final three years in San Francisco were more in line with a 50-grade mid-rotation starter than the ace he had been. After a disastrous 2020 season, his career seems on a sharp downward trajectory.

Permanently joining the Giants rotation in 2010, Bumgarner was overshadowed by Posey’s rookie heroics but played a pivotal role in the dynasty’s first title run as well. Prior to Bumgarner’s promotion, Todd Wellemeyer and Barry Zito made up 40% of the Giants rotation. Even with a condensed postseason rotation, the staff would have struggled to carry the team as far without Bumgarner.

His postseason dominance is unparalleled in the era but may overshadow his strong regular-season resume. From 2010-2019, Bumgarner ranks tenth in innings pitched. While he is clearly a tier below starters like Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer, Bumgarner belongs in the next tier of starters like David Price, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez, and Gio Gonzalez. Interestingly, of the players in that group, Bumgarner is the only member of that group without big-league success before 2010 or in a strong position to continue performing into the 2020s.

He lacks the prolonged peak of Giants legend Juan Marichal, but Bumgarner filled a similar role in his era. At his peak, Marichal was overshadowed by legends like Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax but was consistently one of the best starting pitchers in the league. Both Bumgarner and Marichal were some of the best innings eaters of their eras and consistently posted strong ERA without strikeout numbers that stood out. Instead, both relied on deceptive deliveries and strong command to limit the damage. Still, neither has ever finished in the top three in Cy Young voting even with their success.

After signing a five-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks last offseason, he will have plenty of opportunities to rekindle some of his old form. If this is it, though, he’s still had an exceptional career with plenty of memorable moments.

SF Giants Top 10 Prospects In 2010
#3 Brandon Belt, 1B

Grade: 60
2010 Baseball America Rank: Unranked
Career WAR: 22.0
WAR Per 162 Games: 3.14

The Giants 2008 draft class, which includes Posey and shortstop Brandon Crawford, rightfully ranks as one of the best drafts in franchise history. However, the following year’s class was no slouch either. In the first round, director of amateur scouting John Barr selected future mid-rotation starter, Zack Wheeler. Then, four rounds later, he nabbed Brandon Belt.

Belt has been the spark for endless debate in fan circles since debuting with the team in 2011. Over the first two years of his MLB career, Belt struggled to find consistent playing time behind veteran first baseman Aubrey Huff. Then, once he finally became the everyday player, the #BeltWars began.

His propensity to walk and lack of big-time homer power made him an easy target for old-school fans. Simultaneously, analytically inclined watchers have always been big advocates that Belt was one of the most underrated players in the league. Regardless, it’s hard to argue that he’s been anything less than an above-average starter for much of his career. A career-year in 2020 hopefully put to bed any arguments that he cannot put up big power numbers too.

#4 Brandon Crawford, SS

Grade: 55
2010 Baseball America Rank: 9
Career WAR: 22.2
WAR Per 162 Games: 2.76

Brandon Crawford was one of the most enigmatic prospects in baseball throughout his collegiate and minor league career. Some believed he lacked the athleticism and premium bat to be more than a fringe big-league contributor. Others saw a first-round talent capable of being an above-average everyday player.

A dearth of MLB options led Crawford to the Giants before fully developing as a hitter and seemed to be a defense-first starter without much offensive value from 2011-2014. However, Crawford showed that players could make up for lost time in the minors at the big-league level. In 2015-2016, his offense took another step, and he was worth roughly 4.5 WAR a year.

Over his career, Crawford has posted a roughly league-average .250/.317/.392, but his elite defensive play at a premium position carries him to a strong 55 grade.

SF Giants Top 10 Prospects In 2010
#5 Zack Wheeler, RHP

Grade: 55
2010 Baseball America Rank: 3
Career WAR: 14.5
WAR Per 30 Starts: 3.18

The sixth overall pick in the 2009 draft, Wheeler was in the middle of his steady ascent to the major leagues when the Giants opted to trade him instead of outfielder Gary Brown to the Mets for Carlos Beltran at the 2011 deadline. As the dynasty floundered to find starting pitchers after their last World Series victory in 2014, Wheeler asserted himself in the middle of the Mets rotation.

Injuries took away his 2015 and 2016 seasons, but since returning in 2017, Wheeler has re-established himself as a strong third and possible two starter. His side by side numbers do not stack up great next to Bumgarner’s peak, but the MLB game has changed quite a bit over the past few years. Starters work far fewer innings, and the juiced ball has led to an offensive explosion. In that context, Wheeler has been quietly exceptional.

He still has a long way to go to catch Bumgarner. Even if Bumgarner adds nothing more to his resume, Wheeler would probably need to maintain his recent levels of production into his mid-30s to match Bumgarner’s longevity from 2010-2019. Of course, that’s before getting to Bum’s postseason heroics that will break any tie for the foreseeable future too.

Of all the players on this list, Wheeler is still the youngest at just 31-years old and has produced the most WAR between 2018-2020. There’s an argument that Wheeler has already earned a 60-grade, but injuries have limited him to just four full-seasons. If he maintains this caliber of play for a few more seasons, he may have an argument to be the second or third-best player on the list. For now, he’ll have to settle for rounding out the top five.

SF Giants Top 10 Prospects In 2010
#6 Adam Duvall, LF/3B

Grade: 50
2010 Baseball America Rank: Unranked
Career WAR: 5.7
WAR Per 162 Games: 1.54

It took longer than it should have for Adam Duvall to get an extended opportunity at the major-league level. Even as the Giants were desperate for power, convinced Duvall was limited defensively to an infield corner, he never received an extended look. When he was finally packaged with Keury Mella in the Mike Leake trade, the Cincinnati Reds allowed him to play every day in left field. It did not take long for the Giants to realize they made a mistake.

Duvall adapted wonderfully to the outfield and carried his bigtime power to the big-league level. From 2016-17, Duvall hit 64 home runs and even earned an All-Star selection in 2016. He faded from the scene over the following couple of years but reemerged last season as a role player with Atlanta. He lacks good walk rates and obviously has his flaws, but he’s been an average big-league starter.