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SF Giants 2020 Statcast Review: Home Run Luck

September 25, 2020; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants right fielder Mike Yastrzemski (right) hits a two-run home run against San Diego Padres catcher Austin Nola (left) during the fourth inning of game one of a double header at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
September 25, 2020; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants right fielder Mike Yastrzemski (right) hits a two-run home run against San Diego Padres catcher Austin Nola (left) during the fourth inning of game one of a double header at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
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SF Giants, Joey Bart
Joey Bart #21 of the SF Giants at bat against the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park on September 27, 2020. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

Unlucky SF Giants Home Run Hitters

Mike Yastrzemski (-1.9), Joey Bart (-1.6), Mauricio Dubón (-1.3), Brandon Belt (-1.2)

Given Oracle Park’s challenges for left-handed hitters, Mike Yastrzemski and Belt’s place on the list is easy to understand. While Crawford’s resurgent 2020 season seems like it might have been a bit of a mirage at least on the power side. Both Yaz and Belt’s career-years in 2020 seem in line with their expected home run outputs.

Even more exciting for fans, young prospects Mauricio Dubón and Joey Bart rank among the four most unlucky home run hitters on the team’s roster in 2020. Both right-handed hitters, Bart and Dubón would both be expected to perform more favorably going forward than players like Belt and Yaz.

Bart ranking this highly is especially notable since he only played in 33 games this season. Even in his limited sample of play, he blasted six different balls in play that would have been a home run in at least one other park. While he has yet to record his first career big-league homer, he put his power on display plenty and should achieve that milestone whenever he gets another extended big-league look.

Dubón has historically been considered a hitter with limited power potential. However, over his first two big-league seasons, he has produced roughly 15 home runs per 162 games. Seeing him rank as one of the unluckiest home run hitters on the team is a good sign that power output can remain a part of his game going forward. The Honduran native obviously provides most of his value defensively, but it makes it much easier to see him becoming an everyday player with sustainable double-digit home run power.

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