SF Giants 2020 Statcast Review: Home Run Luck

SF Giants Possible Home Run Hits

Obviously, not all home runs are created equal. Baseball Savant superimposes every fly ball into all 30 MLB stadiums and estimates how many parks it would have been a home run in. From there, it classifies possible home runs into three categories: doubters, mostly gone, and no doubters. No doubters would be home runs in all 30 ballparks, mostly goners are out at between eight and 29 stadiums, and doubters would be home runs at between one and seven parks.

Here is a ranking of the Giants hitters by total hits that could have been a home run, per Statcast’s estimates. The total number is in parenthesis next to their name.

1. Wilmer Flores (20)
2. Brandon Belt (19)
3. Mike Yastrzemski (18)
4. Evan Longoria (15)
5. Alex Dickerson (13)
6. Brandon Crawford (11)
7. Mauricio Dubon (10)
8. Donovan Solano (8)
9. Austin Slater (7)
10. Joey Bart (6)
11. Darin Ruf (6)
12. Chadwick Tromp (4)
13. Justin Smoak (4)
14. Hunter Pence (3)
15. Steven Duggar (1)
16. Jaylin Davis (1)
17. Tyler Heineman (1)

Be careful with these numbers. Almost all players end up with plenty more potential home run hits than actual ones. For some perspective, Corey Seager was one of the league leaders in home runs with 23 between the regular season and postseason and produced 34 potential home run balls.

These numbers suggest that Flores’ “good luck” might be a bit more sustainable with the Giants. Oracle Park has consistently favored right-handed power hitters far better than lefties. Flores hit ten balls classified as “mostly gone,” most of which would have been home runs at Oracle Park. He may be playing in a ballpark that enables him to outperform expectations.

It’s also good news for Brandon Belt, who had a career-year despite only 9 of his 19 potential home run balls leaving the yard. Crawford however, continues to see his name come up with warning signs. Only 11 of his balls in play all season could have been a home run at any ballpark. Eight of them ended up as home runs. The odds of him duplicating that level of success in 2020 is hard to envision.

Unlucky SF Giants Home Run Hitters

Mike Yastrzemski (-1.9), Joey Bart (-1.6), Mauricio Dubón (-1.3), Brandon Belt (-1.2)

Given Oracle Park’s challenges for left-handed hitters, Mike Yastrzemski and Belt’s place on the list is easy to understand. While Crawford’s resurgent 2020 season seems like it might have been a bit of a mirage at least on the power side. Both Yaz and Belt’s career-years in 2020 seem in line with their expected home run outputs.

Even more exciting for fans, young prospects Mauricio Dubón and Joey Bart rank among the four most unlucky home run hitters on the team’s roster in 2020. Both right-handed hitters, Bart and Dubón would both be expected to perform more favorably going forward than players like Belt and Yaz.

Bart ranking this highly is especially notable since he only played in 33 games this season. Even in his limited sample of play, he blasted six different balls in play that would have been a home run in at least one other park. While he has yet to record his first career big-league homer, he put his power on display plenty and should achieve that milestone whenever he gets another extended big-league look.

Dubón has historically been considered a hitter with limited power potential. However, over his first two big-league seasons, he has produced roughly 15 home runs per 162 games. Seeing him rank as one of the unluckiest home run hitters on the team is a good sign that power output can remain a part of his game going forward. The Honduran native obviously provides most of his value defensively, but it makes it much easier to see him becoming an everyday player with sustainable double-digit home run power.

Unluckiest SF Giants Home Run Hitter: Evan Longoria (-2.2)

At this point, I am firmly on the Evan Longoria renaissance bandwagon. During the season, there was an argument that Longoria was playing like one of the best third basemen in the league. While he finished the season in a bit of a slump, Statcast still believed he was a far more productive player than his final numbers suggested.

Longoria’s 2020 season also made a strong anecdotal argument for using expected home runs as a predictive tool. In 2019, Longoria finished third on the team with 20 home runs. However, Statcast expected him to only have 17.8 homers based on his balls in play. His 2.2 home runs above expectation in 2019 was the exact inverse of the 2.2 home runs below expectation he produced in 2020.

There are other metrics that reaffirm the case for Longoria next season. But even just looking at home runs, if just two of the five flyouts that Statcast classified as possible home runs had traveled over the fence, his OPS would have jumped by 50 points this season. Crawford may seem in a position to see some offensive regression next season. Longoria, though, seems poised better than anyone to counteract those losses with a resurgent performance of his own.

The SF Giants offense showed plenty of positive growth in 2020. Looking at expected home runs, some players, like Brandon Crawford and Austin Slater seem to have an uphill battle to replicating their power output in 2021. However, there is reason to believe players like Brandon Belt could maintain their success and Evan Longoria could be prepared for a big bounceback next season.