What A SF Giants Offseason Could Look Like With A $200m Payroll

Marc Delucchi completes his four-part series taking readers through an SF Giants offseason with a $140m, $160m, $180m, and a $200m payroll.

ICYMI: Marc projected an offseason with a $140 million payroll in Part 1
ICYMI: Marc projected an offseason with a $160 million payroll in Part 2
ICYMI: Marc projected an offseason with a $180 million payroll in Part 3

In their second offseason together atop the SF Giants baseball operations department, Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris hope to take the next step towards building a strong contender. The organization’s revamped farm system appears to have the makings of a future core, but will those players join a legitimate contender or have to carry a mediocre team?

With ownership groups around MLB instituting strict financial limitations on their front-offices, it’s not inconceivable that Zaidi and Harris will face a restriction. Of course, the Giants are one of the wealthiest sports franchises in the world. Any budgetary restrictions would solely aid team owners in extracting greater profits from the team. Still, the team already laid off roughly 10% of their employees this year, suggesting a stringent budget.

In 2020, the Giants were scheduled to have an Opening Day payroll of around $165 million, however, the team held payrolls over $170 million from 2015-2019, eclipsing $200 million in 2018. Needless to say, ownership has had plenty of financial might in the past. Had Zaidi felt the team was on the cusp of a World Series title, he likely could have continued to push payroll around $200 million. While ownership is very unlikely to do this, it’s important for fans to remember that they are choosing not to. Nothing mandates them not spend this offseason. This could be what the team looked like if they did.

SF Giants Mock $200m Payroll Offseason: Guaranteed Contracts

Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores, Chadwick Tromp, Jason Vosler, Alex Dickerson, Austin Slater, Donovan Solano, Darin Ruf, Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Matt Wisler, Wandy Peralta, Jarlin Garcia, Trevor Gott, Reyes Moronta
Total Payroll: $125,020,000

Vosler could technically be cut or waived with relatively little cost, but since he signed a big-league deal, it’s worth slotting him into the Opening Day roster. Cueto and Gausman are obviously going to be in the big-league rotation, barring injury, and the bulk of the Giants infield mix is already settled.

While a boatload of money is set to clear off the books after next season, a bulk of the team’s payroll in 2021 will go to Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Longoria. Many have no-trade clauses, but it’s hard to envision them finding a trade for anyone without getting more creative than I plan to get in these simulations, even if they did not.

Dickerson, Slater, Ruf, Peralta, Garcia, and Gott, all agreed to deals prior to the non-tender deadline. Solano and Moronta were tendered contracts for arbitration. Solano’s salary is estimated at $3 million, and Moronta’s is estimated at $800,000. Technically, many of those deals are non-guaranteed, but it’s fair to say they are on the fast track for roster spots. Tromp re-signed on a big-league contract, which presumably pays him a big-league minimum. The Giants also signed right-handed reliever Matt Wisler to a one-year, $1.15 million earlier this week.

Given these payroll constraints, the Giants would have about $75 million to play with to sure up their pitching staff and potentially upgrade their lineup. With multiple holes in the starting rotation and bullpen, the front-office would have the flexibility to make a legitimate contender and could even further strengthen their offense.

SF Giants Mock $200m Payroll Offseason: Offensive Acquisition(s)

Marcell Ozuna: 4-years, $72 million
Ha-Seong Kim: 5-years, $40 million
Jackie Bradley Jr: 2-years, $16 million
Total Payroll: $159,020,000

In these simulations, estimated contracts for free agents are from MLB Trade Rumors’ top-50 free agent predictions.

I was especially satisfied with the $180 million payroll team I constructed in part three of this series and decided to use the excess budget space to splurge on one Marcell Ozuna. While limited defensively, I made the case earlier this offseason that he would be a strong enough upgrade to their lineup to be worth the risk. Just as importantly, the National League is almost ensured to have the universal designated hitter within the next two seasons, allowing him to not play defense altogether.

Kim may be my favorite free-agent on the market and could easily be the Giants shortstop of the future. At just 25-years old, the Kiwoom Heroes infielder could help the team immediately and be a part of their long-term plans. Multiple outlets have said he would rank among the top-100 prospects in baseball and if the Giants have money to spend, those are the kind of players that fit best.

Donovan Solano could return to a utility role where he could spell Kim at second base, or take Brandon Crawford’s spot in the lineup against a lefty, when Kim could shift to short defensively. Kim could be the primary second baseman in 2021 while preparing to replace Crawford after he enters free agency next offseason.

Signing Kim would cost the Giants an additional posting fee to his Korean team, roughly 20% of his guarantees. However, that money would not count against the luxury tax threshold. It’s fair to suggest that ownership could consider that a part of payroll, but in this exercise, that is treated as a separate cost. If that were an issue, the team would probably pass on signing Bradley.

To round out the lineup, the Giants can finally unite with Jackie Bradley Jr. Given the early free-agent deals we have seen, the pitching market seems more robust than the position-player side. If that holds out, Bradley will probably sign an even cheaper deal than estimated here. Still, even at this cost, he’d be a great get for San Francisco.

Bradley may be 31 next year, but he still ranked in the 99th percentile in outs above average last season. Even at his age, he’s arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the game. His offensive game has had its highs and lows, but ultimately he’s been consistently a league-average hitter since 2015. With Mauricio Dubón available to platoon, the Giants would have their best outfield since Barry Bonds, Ellis Burks, Armando Rios, and Marvin Bernard were on the team in 2000.

SF Giants Mock $200m Payroll Offseason: Pitching Acquisition(s)

Liam Hendriks: 3-years, $30 million
Jose Quintana: 2-years, $18 million
Garrett Richards: 2-years, $16 million
James Paxton: 1-year, $10 million
Total Payroll: $196,020,000

Instead of signing starters like Paxton or Richards, I would prioritize trying to get a deal done for Rays ace Blake Snell or Pirates righty Joe Musgrove. In fact, with this payroll, a deal for Snell and centerfielder Kevin Kiermeier could easily replace the signings of Bradley and Paxton. However, predicting trade packages can enable a level of favorable aggressiveness that can feel like cheating in these simulations. Assuming the Giants lost out in any trade sweepstakes for a top starter, Richards, Quintana, and Paxton would be a fantastic trio of additions.

On the pitching side, the Giants could go for Trevor Bauer and I know most fans will be clamoring for him to be included instead of Ozuna and Richard, but there are too many red flags for me. Besides, most estimates believe a team could sign the trio of Jose Quintana, Garrett Richards, and James Paxton for a similar price in annual value and less in total guarantees. The Giants do not have a deep starting rotation as is, and they would maintain more financial flexibility down the line opting for the trio of arms instead of Bauer. If Gerrit Cole were on the market, it would be a no-brainer, but Bauer has a track-record more similar to Jeff Samardzija or Johnny Cueto when they were free agents than Cole.

Paxton is a high-risk, high-reward arm that comes with an extensive injury history, but has an ace’s ceiling when healthy. Limited him to five starts in 2020, he recorded a career-worst 6.64 ERA, however, his strikeout and walk rates were in line with his performance from 2018-2019, when he struck out 394 batters in 311 innings and posted a 3.79 ERA (3.54 FIP). Furthermore, his market will likely be limited to a one-year deal, which carries no long-term risk for the Giants.

Richards looked good and healthy in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery but does come with an injury history on his own right. There’s a compelling case to target Yomiuri Giants starter Tomoyuki Sugano over Richards, but either one would be a strong addition. Still, Richards is a far more proven pitcher than Kevin Gausman was last offseason, and he’s estimated to receive less per year and just a two-year deal. There’s enough upside to lead me to take the risk.

Quintana underwent surgery on his left thumb before the season and then was placed back on the injured list with a left lat injury. In the end, he was limited to just ten innings across four appearances. He was decently effective in his small-sample of play, and the velocity and movement on his pitches were in-line with his previous performances though. In 2019, when some felt he took a step back, his strikeout minus walk rate was identical to his career mark (14.2%) and helped produce a 3.80 FIP. If it were not for the 2020 injury, he would probably be looking at a four-year, $60 million deal.

Finally, the team would still have the space to add one of the top closers on the market. There’s no denying Liam Hendriks’ recent stretch of dominance. Plus, as a right-handed pitcher, he helps balance out a bullpen that already leans heavily towards southpaws. Hendriks is 31-years old, but also will not require a massive financial commitment. A three-year, $30 million deal is something that a strong setup option could get in a normal offseason. I’d be out if the market were in the four or five-year range, but this type of deal would be too good to pass up.

Look at it this way, would you rather have Bauer or Ozuna, Paxton, and Hendriks? Bauer is projected to receive a four-year $128 million contract. That’s equivalent to the total guarantees handed out to Ozuna, Hendriks, Paxton, and Richards. If you look purely at average annual value, it’s still equivalent to Ozuna, Hendriks, and 50% of Richards’ salary. That’s a lot of good players to pass on for one pitcher who’s free-agent case rests heavily on a 60-game season.