What A SF Giants Offseason Could Look Like With A $200m Payroll

Marc Delucchi completes his four-part series taking readers through an SF Giants offseason with a $140m, $160m, $180m, and a $200m payroll.

ICYMI: Marc projected an offseason with a $140 million payroll in Part 1
ICYMI: Marc projected an offseason with a $160 million payroll in Part 2
ICYMI: Marc projected an offseason with a $180 million payroll in Part 3

In their second offseason together atop the SF Giants baseball operations department, Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris hope to take the next step towards building a strong contender. The organization’s revamped farm system appears to have the makings of a future core, but will those players join a legitimate contender or have to carry a mediocre team?

With ownership groups around MLB instituting strict financial limitations on their front-offices, it’s not inconceivable that Zaidi and Harris will face a restriction. Of course, the Giants are one of the wealthiest sports franchises in the world. Any budgetary restrictions would solely aid team owners in extracting greater profits from the team. Still, the team already laid off roughly 10% of their employees this year, suggesting a stringent budget.

In 2020, the Giants were scheduled to have an Opening Day payroll of around $165 million, however, the team held payrolls over $170 million from 2015-2019, eclipsing $200 million in 2018. Needless to say, ownership has had plenty of financial might in the past. Had Zaidi felt the team was on the cusp of a World Series title, he likely could have continued to push payroll around $200 million. While ownership is very unlikely to do this, it’s important for fans to remember that they are choosing not to. Nothing mandates them not spend this offseason. This could be what the team looked like if they did.

SF Giants Mock $200m Payroll Offseason: Guaranteed Contracts

Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores, Chadwick Tromp, Jason Vosler, Alex Dickerson, Austin Slater, Donovan Solano, Darin Ruf, Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Matt Wisler, Wandy Peralta, Jarlin Garcia, Trevor Gott, Reyes Moronta
Total Payroll: $125,020,000

Vosler could technically be cut or waived with relatively little cost, but since he signed a big-league deal, it’s worth slotting him into the Opening Day roster. Cueto and Gausman are obviously going to be in the big-league rotation, barring injury, and the bulk of the Giants infield mix is already settled.

While a boatload of money is set to clear off the books after next season, a bulk of the team’s payroll in 2021 will go to Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Longoria. Many have no-trade clauses, but it’s hard to envision them finding a trade for anyone without getting more creative than I plan to get in these simulations, even if they did not.

Dickerson, Slater, Ruf, Peralta, Garcia, and Gott, all agreed to deals prior to the non-tender deadline. Solano and Moronta were tendered contracts for arbitration. Solano’s salary is estimated at $3 million, and Moronta’s is estimated at $800,000. Technically, many of those deals are non-guaranteed, but it’s fair to say they are on the fast track for roster spots. Tromp re-signed on a big-league contract, which presumably pays him a big-league minimum. The Giants also signed right-handed reliever Matt Wisler to a one-year, $1.15 million earlier this week.

Given these payroll constraints, the Giants would have about $75 million to play with to sure up their pitching staff and potentially upgrade their lineup. With multiple holes in the starting rotation and bullpen, the front-office would have the flexibility to make a legitimate contender and could even further strengthen their offense.

SF Giants Mock $200m Payroll Offseason: Offensive Acquisition(s)

Marcell Ozuna: 4-years, $72 million
Ha-Seong Kim: 5-years, $40 million
Jackie Bradley Jr: 2-years, $16 million
Total Payroll: $159,020,000

In these simulations, estimated contracts for free agents are from MLB Trade Rumors’ top-50 free agent predictions.

I was especially satisfied with the $180 million payroll team I constructed in part three of this series and decided to use the excess budget space to splurge on one Marcell Ozuna. While limited defensively, I made the case earlier this offseason that he would be a strong enough upgrade to their lineup to be worth the risk. Just as importantly, the National League is almost ensured to have the universal designated hitter within the next two seasons, allowing him to not play defense altogether.

Kim may be my favorite free-agent on the market and could easily be the Giants shortstop of the future. At just 25-years old, the Kiwoom Heroes infielder could help the team immediately and be a part of their long-term plans. Multiple outlets have said he would rank among the top-100 prospects in baseball and if the Giants have money to spend, those are the kind of players that fit best.

Donovan Solano could return to a utility role where he could spell Kim at second base, or take Brandon Crawford’s spot in the lineup against a lefty, when Kim could shift to short defensively. Kim could be the primary second baseman in 2021 while preparing to replace Crawford after he enters free agency next offseason.

Signing Kim would cost the Giants an additional posting fee to his Korean team, roughly 20% of his guarantees. However, that money would not count against the luxury tax threshold. It’s fair to suggest that ownership could consider that a part of payroll, but in this exercise, that is treated as a separate cost. If that were an issue, the team would probably pass on signing Bradley.

To round out the lineup, the Giants can finally unite with Jackie Bradley Jr. Given the early free-agent deals we have seen, the pitching market seems more robust than the position-player side. If that holds out, Bradley will probably sign an even cheaper deal than estimated here. Still, even at this cost, he’d be a great get for San Francisco.

Bradley may be 31 next year, but he still ranked in the 99th percentile in outs above average last season. Even at his age, he’s arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the game. His offensive game has had its highs and lows, but ultimately he’s been consistently a league-average hitter since 2015. With Mauricio Dubón available to platoon, the Giants would have their best outfield since Barry Bonds, Ellis Burks, Armando Rios, and Marvin Bernard were on the team in 2000.

SF Giants Mock $200m Payroll Offseason: Final Roster

Total Opening Day Payroll: $195,235,000

Starting Lineup vs. RHP
RF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Ha-Seong Kim
1B Brandon Belt
LF Marcell Ozuna
SS Brandon Crawford
3B Evan Longoria
CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
C Buster Posey
*Pitcher’s Spot*

Bench
Chadwick Tromp, Wilmer Flores, Jason Vosler, Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson, Mauricio Dubón

The offense would have nearly every major contributor back with a few notable upgrades. Posey back in the fold would be a huge improvement behind the plate, even if he hits at his 2019 level. Ozuna would probably be the best hitter on the roster from day one. While Kim has the potential to become one of the SF Giants most dynamic players. With Solano still on the roster though, they could ease Kim into an everyday role if he needed it. While Dubón was good in center last season, Bradley takes their defense to another level too.

If the Giants signed Ozuna, they would be holding out hope that the NL adopted the DH permanently, but in it’s absence, they would still have players like Dubón and Dickerson to be defensive replacements late. However, the outfield roster crunch would make Austin Slater the odd-man-out.

Defensively, the group looks strong across the board, with Yastrzemski the only starter below-average at their position. Assuming Vosler is a solid defender at third base, all reports suggest he is; then there are competent defenders available behind every starter. While Solano might be limited defensively, remember that Kim was developed at shortstop and Dubón remains a top super-utility option. Flores is not going to making many contributions with his glove but could be an incredibly valuable platoon/pinch-hit bat.

Given this roster construction and budget limits, Darin Ruf also falls off the roster. While he and Slater won’t induce a massive bidding war, an American League team looking for a right-handed-hitting DH would very likely offer a lower-level prospect in return for Ruf and another team might offer a prospect with a bit more upside for Slater.

Starting Rotation
1. James Paxton
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Jose Quintana
4. Garrett Richards
5. Johnny Cueto

This unit would obviously have a high-variance of outcomes. The upside is tremendous, but the downside, given Paxton, Richards, and Cueto’s injury history alongside Gausman’s erratic effectiveness, is concerning. Still, players like Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Andrew Suarez, and Conner Menez would be on the outside looking in ready to step in if someone goes down or struggles. Furthermore, prospect Sean Hjelle could be ready for the rotation by season’s end.

No one is likely to be an ace, although Paxton and Cueto have had their moments, but the group would have four starters that seem worthy of a second or third spot in a rotation. It probably will not deliver dominance, but it should produce consistency. Cueto remains the wild-card, but again, with so much depth, they could handle replacing him if his 2021 heads in the wrong direction.

Bullpen
LR Wandy Peralta**
MR Matt Wisler
MR Jarlin Garcia
MR Reyes Moronta
SU Tyler Rogers
SU Sam Selman
CL Liam Hendriks

**competition between Peralta, Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Conner Menez, Andrew Suarez, Caleb Baragar

Evaluating bullpens on paper never seems to work, but this unit looks like the best the Giants have had in years. Hendriks would be the best closer the Giants have had since Brian Wilson and his presence would enable Rogers, Selman, Moronta, Wisler, Peralta, and Garcia to handle the high-leverage situations from the 6th-8th inning. Manager Gabe Kapler would have three lefties, three righties, and plenty of different looks to throw at hitters.

Trevor Gott would have to be designated for assignment, barring an injury or exceptional performance, but many of the other options from last season, like Rico Garcia and Sam Coonrod, would remain a promotion away at Triple-A if the team needed reinforcements. Given that both Garcia and Coonrod got legitimate high-leverage opportunities last season, it shows what adding a couple of arms can do for the pen’s depth. That’s before you get to other dynamic arms, like prospect Camilo Doval, who could be ready to contribute as well.

This is the final piece of a four-part series on how the SF Giants offseason could look with various payroll restrictions. If ownership decides to return payroll to around $200 million, the front-office could have the flexibility to add three mid-rotation starters, a dominant closer, a top-100 prospect, a new cleanup hitter, and an elite defensive centerfielder. Best of all, only three of the players are estimated to require more than two years of guarantees.