SF Giants: Three Potential Right-Handed Pitching Targets

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - AUGUST 15: Jake Odorizzi #12 of the Minnesota Twins pitches against the Kansas City Royals on August 15, 2020 in game one of a doubleheader at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - AUGUST 15: Jake Odorizzi #12 of the Minnesota Twins pitches against the Kansas City Royals on August 15, 2020 in game one of a doubleheader at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)
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Jake Odorizzi #12 of the Minnesota Twins throws against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on August 8, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Jake Odorizzi #12 of the Minnesota Twins throws against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on August 8, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) /

Despite a slow offseason thus far, the SF Giants are still in the market to rebuild the rotation, and there are several potential right-handed targets.

As currently constructed, the SF Giants have Johnny Cueto, Kevin Gausman, and Logan Webb penciled in for next year’s rotation. On top of this, Tyler Beede should return from Tommy John surgery at some point but is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. If we assume San Francisco is looking at options aside from the top of the market, there are still several names that can improve the team without breaking the bank.

Three Right-Handed Pitching Targets for the SF Giants
1. Jake Odorizzi

Jake Odorizzi is a sensible target for a lot of teams and the Giants have been reportedly interested in contact with him and his representatives. Usually a reliable and durable arm, the right-handed hurler had two stints on the injured list in 2020 due to a chest contusion and a blister. As a result, his 2020 season never got going and the numbers reflect that.

He only appeared in four games and registered a 6.59 ERA, 6.12 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, with a 20 percent strikeout rate against a five percent walk rate in 13.2 innings. Given the small sample and the freak nature of his injuries, prospective teams can probably overlook Odorizzi’s 2020 season as a blip.

In nine seasons, Odorizzi has posted a 3.92 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, and a 22.7 percent strikeout rate against an 8.2 percent walk rate. Some teams, especially in hitter-friendly ballparks, will be turned off by his flyball tendencies. He has induced a flyball in 45.4 percent of his batted ball events, and he has generated a less-than-ideal 0.73 GB/FB ratio.

Still, as his market shrinks, the SF Giants, who play half of their games in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park, should benefit. Unlike many free agents the Giants have signed since the new front office has taken over, Odorizzi will likely command a multi-year deal, but should still come at an affordable rate.

Earlier in the offseason, Mike Minor signed a two-year, $18 million contract with an option for a third year. That is likely is in the neighborhood of what Odorizzi is seeking on the market as well. The Giants have handed out only one multi-year deal in the last two offseasons, so they would have to dip into uncommon territory in reeling in a pitcher like Odorizzi. However, he would go a long way in stabilizing a rotation that badly needs help.

Taijuan Walker #00 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 15, 2020. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Taijuan Walker #00 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 15, 2020. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

Three Right-Handed Pitching Targets for the SF Giants
2. Taijuan Walker

Of the names remaining on the free-agent market, few hurlers offer better prospect pedigrees or potential upside than Taijuan Walker.

Walker had Tommy John surgery in 2018, and has not returned to the pitcher he was prior to surgery. As we have seen with Drew Smyly, it may take a couple of years to fully regain his stuff and command. Of course, plenty of guys are never able to find that pre-injury form.

The 2020 season was an encouraging year for Walker, but it did not start that way. He began the year with the Seattle Mariners but was shipped to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. With the Mariners, he registered a 4.00 ERA across 27 frames but posted a stellar 1.37 ERA in 26.1 innings down the stretch with Toronto.

In total, he generated a 2.70 ERA, 4.56 FIP., 1.16 WHIP, and a 22.2 percent strikeout rate against an 8.4 percent walk rate in 11 starts last year. He certainly improved his projected earnings with a strong finish.

Since he debuted with the Mariners back in 2013, the former first-round pick has produced a 3.84 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, and a 21.4 percent strikeout rate against a 7.5 percent walk rate.

He has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts and, unlike Odorizzi, gets his fair share of ground balls as well. In eight seasons, he had induced a groundball in 43.3 percent of his batted ball events to go along with a 1.19 GB/FB ratio.

Cost is going to be a factor. Since Drew Smyly netted a one-year, $11 million contract this winter, that could be used as a template for Walker, but with a longer-term commitment. If the Giants found a way to reel in the hurler, he would quickly become the second-best option in their rotation.

Rick Porcello of the New York Mets in action against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on September 20, 2020 in New York City. Atlanta Braves defeated the New York Mets 7-0. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Rick Porcello of the New York Mets in action against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on September 20, 2020 in New York City. Atlanta Braves defeated the New York Mets 7-0. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Three Right-Handed Pitching Targets for the SF Giants
3. Rick Porcello

While Jake Odorizzi and Taijuan Walker may be looking for multi-year deals, Rick Porcello is likely headed for a one-year, low-risk contract.

Despite debuting with the Detroit Tigers way back in 2009, Porcello will only enter his age-32 season in 2021. However, the 2020 season was a forgettable one for the right-handed hurler, but there is some reason for optimism. In 12 appearances, Porcello registered a 5.64 ERA, but a 3.33 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, and a 20.7 percent strikeout rate against a 5.7 walk rate across 59 frames.

If you are a believer in FIP, then Porcello pitched way better than his 5.64 ERA would suggest. That said, he has produced a 5.55 ERA over his last 233.1 innings, so perhaps poor luck has nothing to do with it.

Since 2009, Porcello has been a far better pitcher than his 2020 performance would indicate. In 12 seasons, he has produced a 4.40 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, and a 17.5 percent strikeout rate against a 5.5 percent walk rate.

On top of this, he has proven to be a workhouse as he has logged over 2,000 innings pitched to his ledger. The question is, does a pitcher with that much mileage on his arm have anything left while being on the wrong side of 30?

He still excels in some areas. While he has never been much of a strikeout machine, Porcello does not beat himself by issuing free passes as he has posted a healthy 3.19 SO/W rate throughout his career.

The problem with many pitchers who pitch too much in the strike zone is that they tend to give up the long ball at too high of a frequency. That has not been the case with Porcello as he has generated a 1.1 HR/9 rate while spending much of his career in the hitter-friendly ballparks of the American League East Divison.

Furthermore, he generates weak contact as he has induced a ground ball in 47.2 percent of his batted ball events to go along with a healthy 1.46 GB/FB ratio in 12 seasons.

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He may not be the perfect option, but he does have some upside as well. The Giants have a lot of rotation innings currently unaccounted for with the 2021 rotation, and adding Porcello would help in soaking up some innings on an affordable contract.

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