What A SF Giants Offseason Could Look Like With A $180m Payroll

Marc Delucchi continues his four-part series taking readers through an SF Giants offseason with a $140m, $160m, $180m, and a $200m payroll.

ICYMI: Marc projected an offseason with a $140 million payroll in Part 1
ICYMI: Marc projected an offseason with a $160 million payroll in Part 2

In their second offseason together atop the SF Giants baseball operations department, Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris hope to take the next step towards building a strong contender. The organization’s revamped farm system appears to have the makings of a future core, but will those players join a legitimate contender or have to carry a mediocre team?

With ownership groups around MLB instituting strict financial limitations on their front-offices, it’s not inconceivable that Zaidi and Harris will face a restriction. Of course, the Giants are one of the wealthiest sports franchises in the world. Any budgetary restrictions would solely aid team owners in extracting greater profits from the team. Still, the team already laid off roughly 10% of their employees this year, suggesting a stringent budget.

In 2020, the Giants were scheduled to have an Opening Day payroll of around $165 million, however, the team held payrolls over $170 million from 2015-2019, eclipsing $200 million in 2018. Needless to say, ownership has had plenty of financial might in the past. With a slow free-agent market, just allowing Zaidi to spend to the levels they did in the post-dynasty era could go an incredibly long way. That could set their limit around $180 million.

SF Giants Mock $180m Payroll Offseason: Guaranteed Contracts

Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores, Chadwick Tromp, Jason Vosler, Alex Dickerson, Austin Slater, Donovan Solano, Darin Ruf, Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Matt Wisler, Wandy Peralta, Jarlin Garcia, Trevor Gott, Reyes Moronta
Total Payroll: $125,020,000

Vosler could technically be cut or waived with relatively little cost, but since he signed a big-league deal, it’s worth slotting him into the Opening Day roster. Cueto and Gausman are obviously going to be in the big-league rotation, barring injury, and the bulk of the Giants infield mix is already settled.

While a boatload of money is set to clear off the books after next season, a bulk of the team’s payroll in 2021 will go to Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Longoria. Many have no-trade clauses, but it’s hard to envision them finding a trade for anyone without getting more creative than I plan to get in these simulations, even if they did not.

Dickerson, Slater, Ruf, Peralta, Garcia, and Gott, all agreed to deals prior to the non-tender deadline. Solano and Moronta were tendered contracts for arbitration. Solano’s salary is estimated at $3 million, and Moronta’s is estimated at $800,000. Technically, many of those deals are non-guaranteed, but it’s fair to say they are on the fast track for roster spots. Tromp re-signed on a big-league contract, which presumably pays him a big-league minimum. The Giants also signed right-handed reliever Matt Wisler to a one-year, $1.15 million earlier this week.

Given these payroll constraints, the Giants would have about $55 million to play with to sure up their pitching staff and potentially upgrade their lineup. With multiple holes in the starting rotation and bullpen, the front-office would have the flexibility to make a legitimate contender and could even further strengthen their offense.

SF Giants Mock $180m Payroll Offseason: Pitching Acquisition(s)

Liam Hendriks: 3-years, $30 million
Jose Quintana: 2-years, $18 million
Garrett Richards: 2-years, $16 million
James Paxton: 1-year, $10 million
Total Payroll: $176,525,000

Instead of signing starters like Paxton or Richards, I would prioritize trying to get a deal done for Rays lefty Blake Snell or Pirates ace Joe Musgrove. In fact, with this payroll, a deal for Snell and centerfielder Kevin Kiermeier could easily replace the signings of Bradley and Paxton. However, predicting trade packages can enable a level of favorable aggressiveness that can feel like cheating in these simulations. Assuming the Giants lost out in any trade sweepstakes for a top starter, Richards, Quintana, and Paxton would be a fantastic trio of additions.

On the pitching side, the Giants could go for Trevor Bauer even with the many red flags, but most estimates believe a team could sign the trio of Jose Quintana, Garrett Richards, and James Paxton for a similar price in annual value and less in total guarantees. The Giants do not have a deep starting rotation as is, and they would maintain more financial flexibility down the line opting for the trio of arms instead of Bauer.

Paxton is a high-risk, high-reward arm that comes with an extensive injury history, but has also been a dominant pitcher when healthy. Injuries limited him to five starts in 2020 and he recorded a career-worst 6.64 ERA, however, his strikeout and walk rates were in line with his performance from 2018-2019, when he struck out 394 batters in 311 innings and posted a 3.79 ERA (3.54 FIP). Furthermore, his market will likely be limited to a one-year deal, which carries no long-term risk for the Giants.

Richards looked good and healthy in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery but does come with long injury history in his own right. There’s a compelling case to target Yomiuri Giants starter Tomoyuki Sugano over Richards, but either one would be a strong addition. Still, Richards is a far more proven pitcher than Kevin Gausman was last offseason, and he’s estimated to receive less per year and just a two-year deal.

Quintana underwent surgery on his left thumb before the season and then was placed back on the injured list with a left lat injury. In the end, he was limited to just ten innings across four appearances. He was decently effective in his small-sample of play, and the velocity and movement on his pitches were in-line with his previous performances though. In 2019, when some felt he took a step back, his strikeout minus walk rate was identical to his career mark (14.2%) and helped produce a 3.80 FIP. If it were not for the 2020 injury, he would probably be looking at a four-year, $60 million deal.

Finally, the team would still have the space to add one of the top closers on the market. There’s no denying Liam Hendriks’ recent stretch of dominance. Plus, as a right-handed pitcher, he helps balance out a bullpen that already leans heavily towards southpaws.

SF Giants Mock $180m Payroll Offseason: Final Roster

Total Opening Day Payroll: $178,750,000

Starting Lineup vs. RHP
RF Mike Yastrzemski
1B Brandon Belt
2B Ha-Seong Kim
LF Alex Dickerson
3B Evan Longoria
SS Brandon Crawford
C Buster Posey
CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
*Pitcher’s Spot*

Bench
Chadwick Tromp, Wilmer Flores, Jason Vosler, Donovan Solano, Austin Slater, Mauricio Dubón

The offense would have nearly every major contributor back with a few notable upgrades. Posey back in the fold would be a huge improvement behind the plate, even if he hits at his 2019 level. Kim has the potential to quickly become one of the SF Giants most dynamic players. With Solano still on the roster though, they could ease Kim into an everyday role if he needed it. While Dubón was good in center last season, Bradley takes their defense to another level.

Defensively, the group looks strong across the board, with Yastrzemski the only starter below-average at their position. Assuming Vosler is a solid defender at third base, all reports suggest he is; then there are competent defenders available behind every starter. While Solano might be limited defensively, remember that Kim was developed at shortstop and Dubón remains a top super-utility option. Flores is not going to making many contributions with his glove but could be an incredibly valuable platoon/pinch-hit bat.

Given this roster construction and budget limits, Darin Ruf becomes the odd-man-out. While he won’t induce a massive bidding war, an American League team looking for a right-handed-hitting DH would very likely offer a lower-level prospect in return.

Starting Rotation
1. James Paxton
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Jose Quintana
4. Garrett Richards
5. Johnny Cueto

This unit would obviously have a high-variance of outcomes. The upside is tremendous, but the downside, given Paxton, Richards, and Cueto’s injury history alongside Gausman’s erratic effectiveness, is concerning. Still, players like Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Andrew Suarez, and Conner Menez would be on the outside looking in ready to step in if someone goes down or struggles. Furthermore, prospect Sean Hjelle could be ready for the rotation by season’s end.

No one is likely to be an ace, although Paxton and Cueto have had their moments, but the group would have four starters that seem worthy of a second or third spot in a rotation. It probably will not deliver dominance, but it should produce consistency. Cueto remains the wild-card, but again, with so much depth, they could handle replacing him if his 2021 heads in the wrong direction.

Bullpen
LR Wandy Peralta**
MR Matt Wisler
MR Jarlin Garcia
MR Reyes Moronta
SU Tyler Rogers
SU Sam Selman
CL Liam Hendriks

**competition between Peralta, Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Conner Menez, Andrew Suarez, Caleb Baragar

Evaluating bullpens on paper never seems to work, but this unit looks like the best the Giants have had in years. Hendriks would be the best closer the Giants have had since Brian Wilson and his presence would enable Rogers, Selman, Moronta, Wisler, Peralta, and Garcia to handle the high-leverage situations from the 6th-8th inning. Manager Gabe Kapler would have three lefties, three righties, and plenty of different looks to throw at hitters.

Trevor Gott would have to be designated for assignment, barring an injury or exceptional performance, but many of the other options from last season, like Rico Garcia and Sam Coonrod, would remain a promotion away at Triple-A if the team needed reinforcements. Given that both Garcia and Coonrod got legitimate high-leverage opportunities last season, it shows what adding a couple of arms can do for the pen’s depth. That’s before you get to other dynamic arms, like prospect Camilo Doval, who could be ready to contribute as well.

This is the third of a four-part series on how the SF Giants offseason could look with various payroll restrictions. If ownership decides to return payroll to around $180 million, the front-office could have the flexibility to reinforce an already strong offense, add three mid-rotation starters, and a dominant closer.