What A SF Giants Offseason Could Look Like With A $160m Payroll

Marc Delucchi continues his series taking readers through an SF Giants offseason with a $140m, $160m, $180m, and a $200m payroll.

ICYMI: Marc projected an offseason with a $140 million payroll in Part 1

In their second offseason together atop the SF Giants baseball operations department, Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris hope to take the next step towards building a strong contender. The organization’s revamped farm system appears to have the makings of a future core, but will those players join a legitimate contender or have to carry a mediocre team?

With ownership groups around MLB instituting strict financial limitations on their front-offices, it’s not inconceivable that Zaidi and Harris will face a restriction. Of course, the Giants are one of the wealthiest sports franchises in the world. Any budgetary restrictions would solely aid team owners in extracting greater profits from the team. Still, the team already laid off roughly 10% of their employees this year, suggesting a stringent budget.

In 2020, the Giants were scheduled to have an Opening Day payroll of around $165 million, which would have been the team’s lowest payroll since 2014. Needless to say, ownership could be willing to approach a similar number, while not enabling Harris and Zaidi to spend beyond that limit. That would set their limit around $160 million.

SF Giants Mock $160m Payroll Offseason: Guaranteed Contracts
Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores, Chadwick Tromp, Jason Vosler, Alex Dickerson, Austin Slater, Donovan Solano, Darin Ruf, Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Matt Wisler, Wandy Peralta, Jarlin Garcia, Trevor Gott, Reyes Moronta
Total Payroll: $125,020,000

Vosler could technically be cut or waived with relatively little cost, but since he signed a big-league deal, it’s worth slotting him into the Opening Day roster. Cueto and Gausman are obviously going to be in the big-league rotation, barring injury, and the Giants infield mix is already settled.

While a boatload of money is set to clear off the books after next season, a bulk of the team’s payroll in 2021 will go to Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Longoria. Many have no-trade clauses, but it’s hard to envision them finding a trade for anyone without getting more creative than I plan to get in these simulations, even if they did not.

Dickerson, Slater, Ruf, Peralta, Garcia, and Gott, all agreed to deals prior to the non-tender deadline. Solano and Moronta were tendered contracts for arbitration. Solano’s salary is estimated at $3 million, and Moronta’s is estimated at $800,000. Technically, many of those deals are non-guaranteed, but it’s fair to say they are on the fast track for roster spots. Tromp re-signed on a big-league contract, which presumably pays him a big-league minimum. The Giants also signed right-handed reliever Matt Wisler to a one-year, $1.15 million earlier this week.

Given these payroll constraints, the Giants would have about $35 million to play with to sure up their pitching staff. With multiple holes in the starting rotation and bullpen, the front-office would have the flexibility to make a legitimate contender, but they would have little room for error.

SF Giants Mock $160m Payroll Offseason: Final Roster

Total Opening Day Payroll: $159,555,000

Starting Lineup vs. RHP
RF Mike Yastrzemski
1B Brandon Belt
2B Ha-Seong Kim
LF Alex Dickerson
3B Evan Longoria
SS Brandon Crawford
C Buster Posey
*Pitcher’s Spot*
CF Mauricio Dubón

Bench
Chadwick Tromp, Wilmer Flores, Jason Vosler, Donovan Solano, Austin Slater, Jaylin Davis*
*competition between Davis, Steven Duggar, and Luis Alexander Basabe

The offense would be nearly identical with a couple of notable upgrades. Posey back in the fold would be a huge improvement behind the plate, even if he hits at his 2019 level. Kim has the potential to quickly become one of the Giants most dynamic players. With Solano still on the roster though, they could ease Kim into an everyday role if he needed it.

Defensively, the starting lineup looks incredibly strong across the board, with Yastrzemski the only player below-average at their position. Assuming Vosler is a solid defender at third base, all reports suggest he is; then there are competent defenders available behind every starter. While Solano might be limited defensively, remember that Kim and Dubón were developed as shortstop and could cover for Crawford if necessary. Flores is not going to making many contributions with his glove but could be an incredibly valuable platoon/pinch-hit bat.

Given this roster construction and budget limits, Darin Ruf becomes the odd-man-out. While he won’t induce a massive bidding war, an American League team looking for a right-handed-hitting DH would very likely offer a lower-level prospect in return.

Starting Rotation
1. James Paxton
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Garrett Richards
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Logan Webb**
**competition between Webb, Tyler Beede, Conner Menez, Andrew Suarez, Caleb Baragar

The Giants may not enter Spring Training knowing who their ace is, but their four veteran arms all have the potential to be a frontline starter. Cueto and Richards are both well removed from their top forms, but alongside Gausman and Paxton, the pressure should be off them to be more than solid mid-rotation arms.

This unit would obviously have a high-variance of outcomes. The upside is tremendous, but the downside, given Paxton, Richards, and Cueto’s injury history alongside Gausman’s erratic effectiveness, is quite low too. Still, players like Beede, Suarez, and even prospect Sean Hjelle could be capable of filling in. It’s far from one of the best rotations in the league, but would be an immense upgrade over their 2020 Opening Day rotation.

Bullpen
LR Wandy Peralta***
MR Matt Wisler
MR Jarlin Garcia
MR Reyes Moronta
SU Tyler Rogers
SU Sam Selman
CL Trevor Rosenthal
***competition between Peralta, Webb, Beede, Menez, Suarez, Baragar

Evaluating bullpens on paper never seems to work, but this unit looks leaps and bounds ahead of the Giants hodgepodge of arms in 2020. Rogers, Selman, Moronta, Wisler, and Garcia all look like viable setup options, and it becomes so much easier to imagine the team holding leads with all of them to choose from before Rosenthal in the 9th.

Trevor Gott would have to be designated for assignment, barring an injury or exceptional performance, but many of the other options from last season, like Rico Garcia and Sam Coonrod would remain a promotion away at Triple-A if the team needed reinforcements. Given that both Garcia and Coonrod got legitimate high-leverage opportunities last season, it shows what adding a couple of arms can do for the pen’s depth.

This is the second of a four-part series on how the SF Giants offseason could look with various payroll restrictions. If ownership decides to maintain a moderate $160 million payroll, the front-office should have the flexibility to add a pair of starters, a high-leverage reliever, and a young shortstop.