SF Giants Rule 5 Draft Preview

SF Giants Prospects Most At Risk: Jose Marte, Daniel Alvarez, Tyler Cyr, Ricardo Genoves

The restrictions on Rule 5 selections generally limits teams to a few profiles. The most common are starters with premium stuff that have struggled in the rotation and relievers. Jose Marte falls in the former category, Daniel Alvarez and Tyler Cyr in the latter. On the position-player side, fourth outfielders, strong defensive shortstops, or catchers tend to be the targets. A potential everyday backstop, Ricardo Genoves falls in that group.

Marte ranked as the 31st best prospect in the Giants system in Around The Foghorns’ Updated Giants Prospect Rankings. Marte was a late-blooming prospect that builds his repertoire around an electric fastball. However, control and consistency will probably force him to the bullpen. Another organization could hope he could put it all together for them next season.

Cyr has always fallen on the outside looking in of most prospect lists, but has dominated out of the pen almost everywhere he’s played. Over his minor-league career, he has struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings and posted a 2.65 ERA. While he’s never gotten an extended taste of Triple-A, he’s recorded a 2.35 ERA over 92 Double-A appearances with strong peripherals. He also was consistently called one of the most impressive pitchers at the Giants alternate site by fellow players in interviews with Around the Foghorn. It’s frankly, still a bit surprising he did not get a big-league promotion at some point this season.

The Giants signed Alvarez as a minor-league free agent earlier this offseason, but he remains Rule 5 eligible. He’s just 24 and, like Cyr, has already had great success at Double-A. His fastball typically sits between 90-93 mph, but Alvarez has built a well-rounded repertoire to make up for what he lacks in velocity. He shows hitters different looks with a four-seam, two-seam, and cut fastball while working in his secondaries, which are his best pitches. Alvarez’s curveball is a potential above-average offering and pairs well with his palmball.

Genoves is the highest-ranked prospect available to opposing teams this draft. Ranked the 18th best prospect in the Giants system, others around the industry have been tepid to jump on the bandwagon. However, he has the potential to be above-average both offensively and defensively from the catcher position.

In 2019, at just 20 years old, Genoves was challenged with an assignment to Low-A Salem-Keizer. It didn’t end up much of a challenge. He posted a massive .229 ISO and was doing it without much swing and miss (just a 16.4% strikeout rate). He remained productive (.292/.361/.446 line) in a limited promotion to Class-A Augusta as well. Of course, drafting someone who has yet to even reach High-A obviously comes with a lot of risks, but if I worked for another organization (especially a rebuilding one), I’d be pounding the table for Genoves.

Other Notable SF Giants Prospects Available: Sandro Fabian, Patrick Ruotolo, Franklin Labour, Ryan Howard, Raffi Vizcaino, Jalen Miller, Prelander Berroa, Mac Marshall

Franklin Labour is the only other player to rank in the top-31, although Prelander Berroa did rank among the ten prospects who just missed the list, but as a lumbering power-hitting corner bat who struggled in his limited taste of full-season ball, it’s hard to envision any team betting on rostering him for a whole season. Berroa has yet to reach full-season ball, but has drawn comparisons to Fernando Rodney and could pick up velocity with a move to the bullpen. Still, he’s likely to stay put.

Outfielder Sandro Fabian, second baseman Jalen Miller, and southpaw Mac Marshall were all relatively prestigious prospects in the system not too long ago, but the improving system combined with injuries in Fabian’s case, struggles for Miller, and both for Marshall has led them all to become a bit forgotten. Marshall is the oldest (24), but they’re all still relatively young. It would be a massive surprise if any were selected, but they all have resume’s that an organization could have secretly fallen in love with. All also seem well-positioned for rebounds in 2021.

Ryan Howard, Pat Ruotolo, and Raffi Vizcaino all fit more standard Rule 5 profiles. Howard is a soft-hitting infielder that can play a below-average shortstop and can handle every position on the dirt. Ruotolo is a low-90s reliever but has a deceptive delivery and gets great extension on the pitch. He’s the kind of guy that scouts struggle to see in the back of a bullpen, but also has a career 1.59 ERA in the minors with 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings and no warning signs in the walk-rate. Vizcaino has more traditional high-leverage stuff, building his arsenal around a mid-90s fastball with excellent run, but he’s seen his walks creep up against Double-A competition. It’s worth noting that Vizcaino is currently pitching the Dominican Winter League and has been very effective. With scouts able to get looks at him, other teams may be more comfortable selecting him.

Familiar SF Giants Names: Dany Jimenez (Blue Jays), Matt Krook (Rays), Connor Joe (Dodgers), Andrew Ferguson (Astros)

Yep, three of the SF Giants Rule 5 draft picks over the last couple of years could be reselected. All still have the same cases to be picked that led the Giants to give them a chance the first time. Joe, in fact, had a very strong Triple-A showing after he was returned to the Dodgers. Ferguson performed about at his previous levels upon returning to the Astros. Of course, with the exception of Dany Jimenez, they were available in last year’s Rule 5 Draft and were passed over.

Travis Bergen, the lone former Giants Rule 5 pick not eligible, was on the Blue Jays roster this year and was traded to the Diamondbacks for Robbie Ray at the deadline. He posted a 3.24 ERA over 8 appearances and recorded a save this season between both teams.

Matt Krook was part of the package the Giants sent to the Tampa Bay Rays in the Evan Longoria and has acclimated well to a hybrid opener/long-reliever role. Now 26-years old, Krook spent 2018 and 2019 at Double-A Montgomery. In 69 appearances (24 starts), he completed 124 innings and struck out 147. However, his longstanding troubles with control have remained, walking 82 batters. He’s still managed a somewhat competent 4.34 ERA and, most impressively, has generated ground balls at an elite rate. While the Giants have plenty of left-handed options in their bullpen, do not be surprised if a lefty-needy team calls his number.

The MLB “Vet” Rule 5 Draft-Eligible: Tim Mayza (Blue Jays)

While it’s rare, players with MLB experience can be outrighted off their team’s 40-man rosters, clear waivers, elect to stay with their current organization, and then be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Tim Mayza threw 104 innings for the Blue Jays between 2017 and 2019, struck out 122, and walked 45. His ERA (4.67) and FIP (3.97) both suggested he was a competent big-league arm, but he’s probably not better than any of the lefties already in the Giants pen.

Rule 5 Draft Pitchers: Riley Pint (Rockies), Parker Dunshee (Athletics), Paul Campbell (Rays), Garrett Whitlock (Yankees), Oliver Ortega (Angels), Dauris Valdez (Padres), David Parkinson (Phillies), Addison Russ (Phillies)

Riley Pint was a top-five pick by the Rockies who still throws hard, but has never consistently thrown strikes. Parker Dunshee has been a very effective starter at every level throughout his career, before struggling a bit at Triple-A in 2019, but his peripherals stayed respectable with the exception of home runs. He’s not a high-upside arm but could be a backend starter or long reliever if he can adjust to the juiced ball.

Paul Campbell is another unique Rays arm coming through the pipeline. His fastball sits at 92 mph and tops out around 95 mph, but he generates tremendous spin on it and his curveball, which remains his best pitch. He has never produced a high number of strikeouts but has been effective at limiting walks and hard contact as a starter. Perhaps a move to the bullpen could help him add a couple of ticks to reach another level.

Garrett Whitlock looked like a fast-moving starting pitcher but had to undergo Tommy John surgery in the middle of the 2019 season. Before his injury, he made 14 starts and posted a solid 3.07 ERA at Double-A. He has shown more consistent velocity than Howard, but it’s a straighter pitch and grades out quite similarly. Whitlock also throws a slider and changeup that could be average big-league pitches. He’s unlikely to ever be exceptional but has three potential average big-league pitches and good enough command to be a solid fourth starter.

Oliver Ortega is another pitcher with a mid to upper 90s fastball that’s been effective (but not dominant) at High-A as a starter. Paired with a 12-6 curveball he could be a close to big-league ready reliever. He’s currently pitching out of the pen at the Dominican Winter League, so teams should be able to get some better looks at the 24-year old in the role he’d likely play if he’s selected in the Rule 5.

Dauris Valdez is a burly 6’8”-254 pitcher that has the stuff it looks like he does. His fastball has touched 102 mph, he has a changeup that looks like a future above-average pitch, and his slider has come along as well. His walks were a bit high at Double-A in 2019, but far from unplayable. Even if it does not work out, he’ll be fun to watch for whichever fanbase he plays in front of. He’s also at the Dominican Winter League.

A left-handed starter drafted out of the University of Mississippi, David Parkinson has relied on mixing his pitches well and command to dominate the lower minors and find decent success at Double-A. He posted better strikeout numbers than you expect from someone with his profile so he could be a name to watch for a more analytically inclined front-office like the Giants.

Addison Russ posted a 2.54 ERA and recorded 22 saves with strong peripherals (81 strikeouts to 20 walks) at Double-A. Plus, he wears sports goggles. As a former little league pitcher with sports goggles, the Rec Specs earn him some extra attention.

Rule 5 Draft Outfielders: Buddy Reed (Athletics), Lazaro Armenteros (Athletics), Jeren Kendall (Dodgers), T.J. Friedl (Reds)

If this was a regular draft, it’s hard to envision Buddy Reed, Lazaro Armenteros, or Jeren Kendall available, but all appear too far away from their ceiling to warrant a spot on an MLB roster. Still, teams so rarely are able to retain selections anyway. They should probably be more willing to gamble on upside. If the pick probably is not going to work out anyway, why not go for a player with big tools?

Reed and Armenteros have been two of my favorites prospects in baseball and both still have a shot to be really good players.

Armenteros is just 21 years old and debuted in full-season ball at 19. In 2019, at High-A Stockton, he hit 17 home runs, stole 22 bases (28 attempts), and walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances. However, he struck out 227 times. The odds are, he is not yet developed enough to handle big-league pitching, but he still has potential plus power and speed.

Reed is a more feasible selection but is far from a sure thing. Unlike Armenteros, Reed is already one of the best defensive center fielders in the minor leagues, using his elite speed and arm well. At the plate though, Reed has never torn the cover off the ball and hit just .228/.310/.388 at Double-A in 2019. He went undrafted in the Rule 5 Draft last season and probably will again, but would be a really interesting fit for a Giants team that could use a fourth outfielder.

Jeren Kendall was the Dodgers first-round pick while both Zaidi and SF Giants manager Gabe Kapler were with the organization. Like Armenteros, he nearly posted a 20-20 season at High-A in 2019. However, he is three years older than Armenteros and was repeating the level. He is a left-handed hitter and capable of playing center field, but he’s far from a ready-made platoon option.

T.J. Friedl lacks the upside of the trio but is probably far more likely to be drafted on Thursday. He has never slugged above .420 over a minor-league season, but can play center field, walks at an above-average clip, and has always had good bat-to-ball skills. He only hit .235/.347/.385 at Double-A in 2019, but he played a significant portion of the season with a broken bone in his foot. As a left-handed hitter, he could be a potential platoon option with Mauricio Dubòn in center.

Rule 5 Draft Infielders: Jose Rojas (Angels), Kevin Smith (Blue Jays), Kyle Holder (Yankees)

Jose Rojas is the least likely to be selected by the SF Giants because it’s hard to envision them adding any more infielders who cannot play shortstop, but if they did, it would be hard to blame them. While he will turn 28 in February, Rojas did not turn pro until he was 24 and hit 31 home runs alongside a .292/.362/.577 triple-slash at the Pacific Coast League in 2019. The year prior he hit .304/.381/.554. Limited athletically though, his defensive profile is weaker than recently signed infielder Jason Vosler’s.

After a breakout 2018 season, Kevin Smith was in the conversation for some top-100 prospect lists. Capable of playing an average defensive shortstop, with the flexibility to move around the diamond, Smith looked capable of making enough contact for his above-average power to play in the bigs. However, the bottom fell out at Double-A. While he hit 19 home runs, he posted a measly .209/.263/.402 triple-slash with a 32.3% strikeout rate. Then he turned around and struck out in 38 of his 67 plate appearances at the Arizona Fall League.

On the positive side of things, Smith was in the Eastern League, a notoriously difficult environment for hitters, especially those who hit for power. Furthermore, his strikeout rate was more palatable against southpaws, in line with his career trend. If the Giants thought he could play the role they acquired Daniel Robertson to play, he could offer a bit more upside.

Kyle Holder follows Ryan Howard’s (Giants prospect not the former Phillies slugger) profile with far better defensive ability. Holder was one of the best defensive amateur shortstops when he was drafted and he remains a top option with the glove. His career .264/.317/.350 triple-slash leaves a lot to be desired, but he puts the ball in play at a decent clip.

Marc’s Top SF Giants Rule 5 Draft Targets: Zack Brown, Enyel De Los Santos, Brian Howard, Trevor Stephan

While I’d lobby for a player like Reed, the SF Giants front-office (rightfully) is trying to compete in 2021 and probably will not be willing to dedicate a roster spot to someone they cannot see handling any consistent role. However, this seems like the perfect opportunity to add starting pitching depth, let them compete for a spot in the rotation in Spring Training, and see if they can pack enough punch out of the pen if it does not work out.

Zack Brown is the best prospect of the group, still ranked as one of the better pitching prospects in the Brewers system, but he also comes with some substantial red flags. Brown has been erratic his entire career, dating back to his collegiate days at the University of Kentucky. In 2018, he looked destined for a big-league debut after managing a 2.40 ERA in Double-A with nearly a strikeout per inning over 127.2 innings. However, at the Pacific Coast League the following season, Brown saw his walks jump, strikeouts dip, and posted a 5.79 ERA. He still has a mid-90s fastball, potential above-average curveball, and a decent changeup that could form a starter’s arsenal. If not, he still has a decent shot to be an effective reliever.

Enyel De Los Santos was a well-regarded starting pitching prospect, reaching his peak value after pitching to a 2.63 ERA across 22 starts at Triple-A in 2018 at just 22-years old. He made his big-league debut with the Phillies but only made 12 appearances in a couple of stints, primarily in long relief, since. While his progress has stalled, he maintains mid-90s velocity on his fastball and has a solid changeup and developing curve. He’s still only 25 and manager Gabe Kapler should have some familiarity with him from his time in Philadelphia.

Brian Howard has a far less erratic track record than Brown but lacks the upside. At 6’9,” he consistently generates difficult looks for hitters with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and a 12-6 curveball. He also reportedly more consistently hit 95 mph at the Athletics’ alternate site. He probably will never be more than a back-end starter and might be better suited for a long reliever role, but he could conceivably be ready to be in a rotation next spring.

Not considered as likely to be selected as the other three, Trevor Stephan remains my sleeper. The Yankees third-round pick in 2017, Stephan began pitching late in his amateur career but had the athleticism to project s a premium arm. He’s had his flashes but has struggled to limit runs. Still, he’s struck out over a batter an inning as a starter, has a plus fastball, and a potential above-average slider that could easily profile in the back of a pen.

It’s worth noting as well, that while his 4.01 High-A ERA and 5.24 Double-A ERA were not impressive, his respective FIP at both levels (2.77 and 3.37) and xFIP (2.81 and 3.56) were both very strong. Of the players in this group, I’d probably be most inclined to bet on him having a breakout 2021 regardless of whether he’s drafted or not.

The Rule 5 Draft will take place on Thursday, December 10th at 12:00 pm eastern time. The SF Giants have the 14th pick in the draft and have four spots available on their 40-man roster.