What A SF Giants Offseason Could Look Like With A $140m Payroll

Marc Delucchi is kicking off a series where he will take readers through a SF Giants offseason with a $140m, $160m, $180m, and a competitive balance tax-line payroll.

In their second offseason together atop the SF Giants baseball operations department, Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris hope to take the next step towards building a strong contender. The organization’s revamped farm system appears to have the makings of a future core, but will those players join a legit contender or have to carry a mediocre team?

With ownership groups around MLB instituting strict payroll limitations on their front-offices, it’s not inconceivable that Zaidi and Harris will face a similar restriction. Of course, the Giants are one of the wealthiest sports franchises in the world. Any budgetary restrictions would solely aid team owners in extracting greater profits from the team. Still, the team already laid off roughly 10% of their employees this year, suggesting a stringent budget.

In 2020, the Giants were scheduled to have an Opening Day payroll of around $165 million, which would have been the team’s lowest payroll since 2014. Needless to say, if ownership is trying to cut corners and save money, limiting the front office to a $140 million Opening Day payroll is not out of the question.

SF Giants Mock $140m Payroll Offseason: Guaranteed Contracts

Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores, Jason Vosler, Alex Dickerson, Austin Slater, Donovan Solano, Darin Ruf, Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Wandy Peralta, Jarlin Garcia, Trevor Gott, Reyes Moronta
Total Payroll: $123,285,000

Vosler could technically be cut or waived with relatively little cost, but since he signed a big-league deal, it’s worth slotting him into the Opening Day roster. Cueto and Gausman are obviously going to be in the big-league rotation, barring injury, and the Giants infield mix is already settled.

While a boatload of money is set to clear off the books after next season, a bulk of the team’s payroll in 2021 will go to Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Longoria. Many have no-trade clauses, but it’s hard to envision them finding a trade for anyone without getting more creative than I plan to get in these simulations, even if they did not.

Dickerson, Slater, Ruf, Peralta, Garcia, and Gott, all agreed to deals prior to the non-tender deadline. Solano and Moronta were tendered contracts for arbitration. Solano’s salary is estimated at $3 million, and Moronta’s is estimated at $800,000. Technically, many of those deals are non-guaranteed, but it’s fair to say they are on the fast track for roster spots.

Given these payroll constraints, the Giants would only have about $15 million to play with to sure up their pitching staff. With multiple holes in the starting rotation and bullpen, the front-office would probably have to rely on a lot of internal development to become a legitimate contender.

SF Giants Mock $140m Payroll Offseason: Big Acquisition(s)

Jose Quintana: 2-year, $18 million
Michael Wacha: 1-year, $2.5 million
Ehire Adrianza: 1-year, $800,000
Total Payroll: $134,200,000

In these simulations, estimated contracts for top free agents, like Jose Quintana, are coming from MLB Trade Rumors’ top-50 free agent predictions.

Instead of signing someone like Quintana, I would prioritize trying to get a deal done for Rays lefty Blake Snell or Pirates ace Joe Musgrove. However, predicting trade packages can enable a level of favorable aggressiveness that can feel like cheating in these simulations. Assuming the Giants lost out in any trade sweepstakes for a top starter, Quintana seems like the most bang for the buck.

Quintana underwent surgery on his left thumb before the season and then was placed back on the injured list with a left lat injury. In the end, he was limited to just ten innings across four appearances. He was decently effective in his small-sample of play, and the velocity and movement on his pitches were in-line with his previous performances.

Since debuting with the Chicago White Sox in 2013, Quintana has been one of the most consistent mid-rotation starters in baseball. Before this year, he’d never completed fewer than 171 innings in a full season. However, in 2019, he did record the highest ERA (4.68) of his career. Set to turn 32-years old in January, some front-offices might be skittish.

I’m pretty high on Quintana’s prospects. A deeper look at his peripherals in 2019 suggests Quintana was performing like the solid starter he’s always been. His strikeout minus walk rate was identical to his career mark (14.2%) and translated to a 3.80 FIP.

There’s never a sure thing on the free-agent starting pitching market. Things only get dicier when you deviate from the top of most lists. Still, in this scenario, the Giants could do a lot worse than Quintana. The fact is, in his nearly decade long career, he’s never had a season where he looked like a bad starting pitcher.

With so little payroll space remaining in this scenario (remember that payroll does not include the minimum salary contracts that will fill out the 26-man roster), the Giants would probably be limited to struggling veterans like Jon Lester, reclamation projects like Michael Wacha, or maybe Mike Leake to fill out the rotation. None are guarantees, but Wacha easily has the most upside. In fact, there are several similarities between Wacha in 2020 and Kevin Gausman in 2019.

Lastly, with Daniel Robertson non-tendered, there is no one on the roster outside Crawford and Mauricio Dubón that the team could reasonably count on to handle shortstop. Since this budget will not enable them to bring in a strong center fielder, Dubón will probably have to function there in an everyday capacity. If he does, they need a backup shortstop.

Ehire Adrianza may have been a bit of a letdown in his first stint in San Francisco, but since joining the Minnesota Twins in 2017, he has posted a playable .253/.317/.377 triple-slash while maintaining the elite defensive acumen scout’s raved about since he was a prospect in the Giants system. Per Baseball Savant, Adrianza ranked in the 89th percentile by Outs Above Average last season. Furthermore, Adrianza, a switch-hitter, has been more productive against left-handed pitchers than righties, a useful split given starting Crawford’s struggles against southpaws.