What A SF Giants Offseason Could Look Like With A $140m Payroll

SF Giants Mock $140m Payroll Offseason: Big Acquisition(s)

Jose Quintana: 2-year, $18 million
Michael Wacha: 1-year, $2.5 million
Ehire Adrianza: 1-year, $800,000
Total Payroll: $134,200,000

In these simulations, estimated contracts for top free agents, like Jose Quintana, are coming from MLB Trade Rumors’ top-50 free agent predictions.

Instead of signing someone like Quintana, I would prioritize trying to get a deal done for Rays lefty Blake Snell or Pirates ace Joe Musgrove. However, predicting trade packages can enable a level of favorable aggressiveness that can feel like cheating in these simulations. Assuming the Giants lost out in any trade sweepstakes for a top starter, Quintana seems like the most bang for the buck.

Quintana underwent surgery on his left thumb before the season and then was placed back on the injured list with a left lat injury. In the end, he was limited to just ten innings across four appearances. He was decently effective in his small-sample of play, and the velocity and movement on his pitches were in-line with his previous performances.

Since debuting with the Chicago White Sox in 2013, Quintana has been one of the most consistent mid-rotation starters in baseball. Before this year, he’d never completed fewer than 171 innings in a full season. However, in 2019, he did record the highest ERA (4.68) of his career. Set to turn 32-years old in January, some front-offices might be skittish.

I’m pretty high on Quintana’s prospects. A deeper look at his peripherals in 2019 suggests Quintana was performing like the solid starter he’s always been. His strikeout minus walk rate was identical to his career mark (14.2%) and translated to a 3.80 FIP.

There’s never a sure thing on the free-agent starting pitching market. Things only get dicier when you deviate from the top of most lists. Still, in this scenario, the Giants could do a lot worse than Quintana. The fact is, in his nearly decade long career, he’s never had a season where he looked like a bad starting pitcher.

With so little payroll space remaining in this scenario (remember that payroll does not include the minimum salary contracts that will fill out the 26-man roster), the Giants would probably be limited to struggling veterans like Jon Lester, reclamation projects like Michael Wacha, or maybe Mike Leake to fill out the rotation. None are guarantees, but Wacha easily has the most upside. In fact, there are several similarities between Wacha in 2020 and Kevin Gausman in 2019.

Lastly, with Daniel Robertson non-tendered, there is no one on the roster outside Crawford and Mauricio Dubón that the team could reasonably count on to handle shortstop. Since this budget will not enable them to bring in a strong center fielder, Dubón will probably have to function there in an everyday capacity. If he does, they need a backup shortstop.

Ehire Adrianza may have been a bit of a letdown in his first stint in San Francisco, but since joining the Minnesota Twins in 2017, he has posted a playable .253/.317/.377 triple-slash while maintaining the elite defensive acumen scout’s raved about since he was a prospect in the Giants system. Per Baseball Savant, Adrianza ranked in the 89th percentile by Outs Above Average last season. Furthermore, Adrianza, a switch-hitter, has been more productive against left-handed pitchers than righties, a useful split given starting Crawford’s struggles against southpaws.

SF Giants Mock $140m Payroll Offseason: Final Roster

Total Opening Day Payroll: $139,680,000

Starting Lineup vs. RHP
RF Mike Yastrzemski
2B Donovan Solano
1B Brandon Belt
LF Alex Dickerson
3B Evan Longoria
SS Brandon Crawford
C Buster Posey
*Pitcher’s Spot*
CF Mauricio Dubon

Bench
Chadwick Tromp, Wilmer Flores, Jason Vosler, Ehire Adrianza, Austin Slater, Darin Ruf, Jaylin Davis*

*competition between Davis, Steven Duggar, and Luis Alexander Basabe

The offense would be virtually identical to last year’s team, with Posey back in the fold behind the plate. Assuming Tromp does return on a minor-league deal as reported, he seems like a heavy favorite to win the backup catching job to enable Joey Bart to get more reps in the minors.

Defensively, the starting lineup looks incredibly strong across the board, with Yastrzemski and Solano probably the two “weakest links.” Assuming Vosler is a solid defender at third base, all reports suggest he is; then there are competent defenders available behind every starter. Of course, Ruf and Flores are not going to making many contributions with their gloves but could be incredibly valuable platoon/pinch-hit bats.

While the designated hitter’s fate seems up in the air, it’s hard to imagine it not becoming universal by 2022. If it were not for the complicated CBA negotiations, it would almost assuredly be this coming season. Without one, though, Ruf, Flores, and Belt create a pretty heavy backlog at first base. In this scenario, Ruf probably gets shopped a bit to free up a roster spot for a 12th pitcher, but injuries do happen too.

Starting Rotation
1. Kevin Gausman
2. Jose Quintana
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Michael Wacha
5. Logan Webb**

**competition between Webb, Tyler Beede, Conner Menez, Andrew Suarez, Caleb Baragar

No one will be afraid of that rotation, but it has quite a bit of upside. If Gausman can maintain his success in 2020, Quintana is healthy, and just one of Cueto or Wacha can have a strong bounce-back campaign, the Giants are just a Logan Webb breakout away from having a really good rotation. Of course, there’s a lot of things that have to go right for that to happen.

The odds are this unit would struggle with consistency and probably health (given Cueto and Wacha’s history). Still, players like Beede, Suarez, and even prospect Sean Hjelle could be capable of filling in. It would not earn a lot of confidence, but it’s worth remembering it would probably be an upgrade over what their rotation looked like heading into this season.

Bullpen
LR Wandy Peralta**
MR Trevor Gott/Sam Coonrod
MR Reyes Moronta
SU Tyler Rogers
SU Jarlin Garcia
CL Sam Selman

**competition between Webb, Tyler Beede, Conner Menez, Andrew Suarez, Caleb Baragar

Most Giants fans still have not accepted it, but the team’s bullpen actually was pretty solid this season. Tony Watson is unlikely to return in free agency, but it’s hard to see him playing a major role even if he did. The truth is they have many competent middle relievers but need a premium arm to take the next step. This could be solved if Moronta is his old self returning from shoulder surgery, but that’s easier said than done. Without much payroll room, that’s probably their best hope aside from a breakout from prospect Camilo Doval.

The biggest issue for manager Gabe Kapler will be the changes to rosters in 2021. If rosters are restricted back down to 26 players, the Giants will not roster 13-15 pitchers like they did most of last season. Given how successful the team was at maximizing platoon splits, it will be hard to maintain that same usage passage. This will only accentuate the problems with rostering Flores, Belt, and Ruf if there is no DH in the National League.

This is the first of a four-part series on how the SF Giants offseason could look with various payroll restrictions. If ownership decides to pinch-pennies and limits payroll to $140 million, the front-office would be limited in its ability to sure up an iffy rotation and solidify a bullpen that probably needs one more trustworthy arm.