Five SF Giants Trade Possibilities For Rays Ace Blake Snell

If the Tampa Bay Rays are trying to trade Blake Snell, the SF Giants should be among the top contenders. Marc Delucchi examines what combinations of players and prospects could get a deal done?

Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Blake Snell has been one of the best starters in baseball since debuting in 2016. While his 2018 Cy Young season remains an aberration, over his career, Snell has struck out 648, walked just 232, and held opponents with a 3.24 ERA over 556 innings pitched. Needless to say, when a report suggested the Rays are open to moving the soon to be 28-year old, fans around the country took notice.

Prior to the 2019 season, Snell signed a long-term extension with Tampa Bay, but with three-years and $42 million left on the deal, the Rays front office may be looking to clear payroll. On the heels of a solid 2020 campaign, Snell would immediately become the most desirable pitcher on the trade market.

Snell is a very good value on his current deal, but MLB owners remain unwilling to commit much to their payrolls in the aftermath of decreases in revenue and attempt to ice players out of leverage entering Collective Bargaining negotiations. Given Tampa Bay’s long track-record of cheapness, the revenue declines in the COVID-19 impacted season likely will only accentuate their attempts to dump money.

The Rays will want a significant return for their ace. It’s worth pointing out that they have fleeced teams when they decided to trade big-league starters like Chris Archer and Matt Moore in the past. However, it’s hard to know how much a potential Snell trade is influenced by unexpected financial pressures from ownership.

Constructing a package to entice the Rays is a complicated enterprise. Coming off a World Series appearance, they will obviously target top prospects, but probably want to get players back they can see helping them relatively soon as well. With one of the best farm systems in baseball, Tampa Bay can be picky and target areas of need.

Luckily, their biggest holes on the MLB roster align with the Giants strengths. Corner outfield, first base, designated hitter, and catcher were easily the biggest holes on the Rays roster. San Francisco has assembled depth at all of those spots.

SF Giants-Tampa Bay Rays Blake Snell Trade #1

Rays Get: OF Mike Yastrzemski
Giants Get: LHP Blake Snell
Baseball Trade Value Simulator Winner: Rays +6.3

The rest of the deals will be more prospect focused from here, but as crazy as it sounds, Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski might make sense in a one-for-one swap. Yaz was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2020, but the odds of him maintaining that success going forward are small. Still, the 30-year old is under team control for five more years and looks like an above-average everyday player.

If the Rays are looking to clear salary, but remain as competitive as possible, they could save a substantial amount of money and immediately throw Yastrzemski into the middle of their order and long-term plans. Considering the success they have had with unique pitching deployments, like openers, they might not feel much pressure to recoup a potential starter in return as well.

While Yastrzemski has quickly become the face of Farhan Zaidi’s Giants, the team has built fantastic depth in the corner outfield with players like Austin Slater and Alex Dickerson. Defensively, Yastrzemski looked unable to handle center in 2020, giving manager Gabe Kapler limited flexibility.

The starting rotation, on the other hand, is in need of premium arms. Losing Yaz would obviously be a significant hit to their lineup, but adding Snell would give the Giants their best rotation heading into 2021 since Zaidi took over. With top outfield prospect Heliot Ramos on schedule to make his big-league debut next season, the Giants may be more willing to part with a proven commodity like Yastrzemski if it enables them to retain their top prospects.

By the Trade Value Simulator, Yastrzemski is slightly more valuable than Snell, but starting pitching is also far harder to come by than corner outfielders. The Giants might have to give up a bit of value to address their area of need. However, a prospect like Kevin Padlo, who is blocked in Tampa Bay, would equalize the value and fit the Giants system.

SF Giants-Tampa Bay Rays Blake Snell Trade #2

Rays Get: OF Heliot Ramos, LHP Seth Corry, C Patrick Bailey,
Giants Get: LHP Blake Snell
Baseball Trade Value Simulator Winner: Rays +1.5

A Yastrzemski-Snell swap could make sense for both teams but does seem unlikely. The Giants would be trading the biggest success of their rebuild and the Rays would be limiting their return to one 30-year old outfielder. As good as Yastrzemski is, Tampa tends to target multi-player packages when they sell.

Heliot Ramos may not be the best prospect in the Giants system, but after a breakout in 2019, has emerged as a consensus top-75 prospect in baseball. Both teams could target him as a centerpiece for the same reason Yastrzemski could work. He’s relatively close to the major leagues and could soon fill a hole in an outfield corner.

Catcher is the other obvious need in Tampa’s system and Patrick Bailey was considered the best catcher available in the 2020 draft. While he will not be ready to contribute at the big-league level in 2021, his profile as a strong defensive, solid-hitting catcher tends to move quickly. With Joey Bart poised to become the Giants catcher of the future, Bailey is obviously more expendable.

Seth Corry has been the best pitching prospect in San Francisco’s system since a dominant 2019 season at Class-A Augusta. The young lefty’s control has wavered and finding consistent command will ultimately determine how well he develops. He has a potential plus changeup and curveball with a solid low-90s fastball. Most project him as a mid-rotation starter, but his performance suggests there could be more upside there.

Ramos, Corry, and Bailey do not project as stars, but all seem like good bets to become above-average starters. All three rank among the Giants top-ten prospects and probably among the top 250 prospects in baseball. Needless to say, it would offer Tampa Bay a solid trio of prospects to bet on.

For the Giants, this package would enable them to hold onto top prospects Joey Bart and Marco Luciano and leave their big-league roster untouched. The farm system would obviously lose a substantial amount of depth and would be even thinner at starting pitcher, but they would be unlikely to feel those losses until at least 2022.

SF Giants-Tampa Bay Rays Blake Snell Trade #3

Rays Get: 1B Brandon Belt, OF Heliot Ramos, RHP Blake Rivera, $5 million
Giants Get: LHP Blake Snell, OF Kevin Kiermeier
Baseball Trade Value Simulator Winner: Giants +6.7

All teams will be hesitant to take on Kiermaier’s $11.5 million salary in 2021, $12 million salary in 2022, and $2.5 million buyout out of a $13.5 million club option for 2023. If the Giants are willing to take on salary to acquire some pieces, a Brandon Belt-Kevin Kiermeier swap already made sense. Incorporating that will a Snell trade could work too.

Belt is owed a $16 million salary in 2021 but becomes a free-agent after next season. If the Giants agreed to retain $5 million of his salary, their salaries next season could nearly offset and help the Giants acquire Snell without giving up the prospect premium one might expect.

The Rays most obvious holes this season were at first base and designated hitter. Their primary first baseman, Ji-Man Choi had an unexceptional .741 OPS and would cost the Rays roughly $2 million next season unless he’s traded or non-tendered. Their primary DH, Yoshi Tstusogo, had a mediocre .708 OPS and hit just .197. Belt would be a huge upgrade at either spot.

Belt had a career-year in 2020, leading the team in OPS and showing the potential to hit for average, power, and get on base like many thought he would years prior. However, Belt was not the only Giants first baseman to tear up the competition in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Wilmer Flores and Darin Ruf both posted an OPS well north of .800 as well.

Belt does have a 10-team no-trade clause, but the details have not been reported. If he left the Rays on his short-list then he could veto a trade. Even if he could though, the chance to play for a World Series team that plays quite a few games in Camden Yards, Fenway Park, and Yankee Stadium would seem like a great scenario for Belt, especially heading into a contract year.

After that, the Rays would lose most negotiating leverage.  The Giants would be taking on $58 million in future salary commitments in a buyer’s market. In one fell swoop, the Rays could upgrade first base and clear their balance sheet of its two biggest salaries.

Ramos would still be a strong get that the Rays would want and the Giants might still be willing to part with, but after that, they would have to settle for a secondary piece. They could probably get one pitching prospect from the several 40/40+ arms that rank around 13-25 in the GIants system. Blake Rivera is probably the best fit with the Rays tendencies.

San Francisco would be taking on a substantial amount of money in this deal, but in terms of major assets, they would basically only be sacrificing Ramos for Snell. Belt was great in 2020, but has a long history of injuries, is a free agent after next season, and has viable replacements already on the roster.

SF Giants-Tampa Bay Rays Blake Snell Trade #4

Rays Get: RHP Logan Webb, OF Austin Slater, C Patrick Bailey, CF Grant McCray, LHP Juan Sanchez
Giants Get: LHP Blake Snell, OF Kevin Kiermeier
Baseball Trade Value Simulator Winner: Giants +1.3

Money can buy a lot of things. In baseball, especially this offseason, the more salary a team is willing to take on, it could probably get them some surprisingly good prospects or, in the case of a Snell trade, lessen the return they need to offer. If they take on Kiermeier and are not sending Belt to Tampa, they could probably add Snell without parting with one of their five best prospects.

While it is obvious that the Rays would have to package Kiermeier with an appealing prospect or player to move him, it’s not a comparable situation to the Angels with Zack Cozart last offseason. If Kiermeier were a free agent, many teams would be interested and he could probably command a market similar to Jackie Bradley Jr.

Logan Webb and Austin Slater both were decent contributors for the Giants in 2020. Slater even flashed some 20-20 potential. However, neither project with elite ceilings. Webb has the makings of a mid-rotation starter if he can find a bit more consistency on the mound and Slater, at the least, proved he’s a productive platoon player. Both are cost-controlled, have many years of team control remaining, and could help the Rays immediately.

Bailey, Webb, and Slater would provide the Rays a trio of 45+ future-value pieces and lack enough upside to justify a couple of throw-in lower-level prospects. McCray was the Giants third-round pick in the 2019 draft and projects as a very good defensive center fielder with a potential above-average bat. Juan Sanchez is a young projectable lefty that was very productive in the Dominican Summer League last year.

Snell would slot into Webb’s spot in the Giants rotation and Kiermeier would give the Giants a legitimate alternative to Mauricio Dubon in center field. The Rays could immediately deploy Slater as a platoon bat and Webb in a tweener starter/reliever role, clear payroll, add a top catching prospect, and another pair of lottery tickets.