Three free-agent starters SF Giants need to avoid this winter

Free-Agents for SF Giants To Avoid
3. Mike Fiers

Mike Fiers will be one of the most sought-after pitchers on the market. The 6-foot-2 right-hander leads all free agent pitchers with six victories in 2020. But along with that comes his 4.58 earned run average (highest since 2017) and 65 hits allowed in 59 innings of work.

Fiers is a pitcher that needs a lot of run support and strong defensive play because he surrenders a decent amount of baserunners. Along with his hits allowed, he sported a 1.37 WHIP (walks and hits per inning) and gave up multiple runs in nine of his 11 starts. That included six outings of at least three runs, four of which he allowed four and one in which he gave up a season-high five.

Additionally, Fiers held opposing lineups to four hits or less only twice. The 6-foot-2 right-hander allowed a season-high seven hits six times (including the outing where he allowed five runs), six hits once, and five hits twice. Furthermore, his .294 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), implies that he did not suffer from much bad luck.

Fiers doesn’t induce many strikeouts as well. He only sent down 37 of the 257 batters he faced this season and has 990 in 1,141 2/3 career innings. This means Fiers relies on hitters making contact in order to produce outs, putting that much more pressure on the defense. As he gets older, and plays in the era of the juiced ball, that’s not a recipe for success.

The only benefit for the Giants to sign Fiers is that he’s a workhorse and eats up innings (he averaged 5.4 innings per start this season). But he’s too much of a risk because of his propensity to allow baserunners and heavily relies on his defense.

The Giants offense can mask Fiers’ flaws. However, there are plenty of better options on the market for next season.

Free-Agents for SF Giants To Avoid
2. Aníbal Sánchez

Ever since he finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting in 2013, Aníbal Sánchez‘s career has gone on a downward spiral. Although his win-loss record has been passable (50-54 in 185 games), his overall statistics are all over the place.

His earned run average ballooned from a career-low 2.57 in 2013 to 6.41 in 2017 with the Detroit Tigers. Then it dipped all the way down to 2.83 in his lone year with the Atlanta Braves in 2018. However, after a decent 3.85 mark last season, it spiked up to a career-high 6.62 this year in the nation’s capital.

Sánchez is susceptible to the long ball as well as he has served up at least 20 homers six times in his 15-year career. That includes back-to-back years of 20 (2011 and 2012) and a three-season stretch (2015 to 2017) in which he allowed 29, 30 (career-high), and 26 respectively. There are few pitchers more directly harmed by the MLB’s new juiced ball.

Sánchez’s hit-to-inning ratio isn’t all that great either as he has accumulated more hits allowed than innings pitched three of the last five years, including 70 hits in 53 innings this season. One upside for the 6-foot right-hander is that his strikeouts have remained relatively consistent around 7.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. He induced 43 in 53 innings in 2020, right in-line with his performance in 2019.

If the Giants are thinking about signing Sánchez to strengthen their rotation, they are banking on him having one of his more productive seasons. Sanchez would greatly benefit from the pitching confines of Oracle Park, but he’ll be 37-years-old by the time next season starts. He’s shown the ability to bounce-back from bad seasons before, but eventually, a career has run it’s course.

Free-Agents for SF Giants To Avoid
1. Jake Arrieta

It seems safe to say that Jake Arrieta‘s tenure with the Chicago Cubs was nothing but an aberration. The 6-foot-4 right-hander went from being one of the best pitchers in baseball over a two-year stretch to an aging, injury-prone average starter.

The City of Brotherly Love has been anything but lovely to Arrieta: 22-23 record with a 4.36 earned run average in 64 starts was solidly mediocre, but a far cry from his peak. Arrieta has not really been as durable as he used to be as well. He only made 24 starts in 2019 and was shut down this year after nine starts with a right hamstring strain.

The Philadelphia Phillies exercised his 2020 player option of $20 million and most likely won’t be back. The Giants would be wise not to pick him up for the same reason as Sánchez: he may experience somewhat of a resurgence pitching at Oracle Park but he’s getting older and coming back from a severe injury.

What’s even more troubling is that his earned run average has substantially inflated since his Cy Young award campaign. It increased from 1.77 in 2015 to 5.08 in 2020. This is a result of his strikeouts winding down and having to rely on his defense to produce his outs.

Arrieta seems like a last-resort option for the Giants to shore up their shaky rotation. Otherwise, Fiers and Sanchez have their upsides while Arrieta is in danger of not remaining in the major leagues much longer.

Only time will tell how the SF Giants fillout their 2021 pitching staff. The team will obviously be targetting a number of starting pitchers to help them contend. Still, not all free-agent starters are equal. There are plenty of warning signs around Mike Fiers, Aníbal Sánchez, and Jake Arrieta. To best position themselves, they need to find other options.