SF Giants Top 31 Prospect Rankings: 2020 Midyear Update

Since the San Francisco Giants have signed all their draft picks and the 2020 minor league season has officially been canceled, Around the Foghorn’s prospect expert Marc Delucchi is back with his updated prospect rankings.

Since I’ve been focusing my coverage on Giants prospects and minor leaguers over the last year and a half, I’ve been pretty adamant that the system was on the rise. The COVID-19 pandemic led to the cancellation of the 2020 minor league season and so the Giants haven’t been able to take the massive step forward that I predicted, but the improved system depth is obvious.

Prospects that would’ve vaulted into the team’s top 15 prospects are now struggling to break the top 30. Ultimately, while the big-league team hasn’t reaped the complete rewards of that system, fans should begin to see the shift over the coming couple of years.

Each prospect ranking site has a different qualification to lose prospect eligibility. However, with the peculiarities of the suspended season, a number of players who would’ve lost eligibility by now haven’t because of the delay. I will come out with a ranking of the post-prospect prospects not included in the rankings over the next couple of weeks (Mauricio Dubon, Logan Webb, Jaylin Davis, Sam Coonrod, Conner Menez, etc.).

One thing that did surprise me as I combed back over the system for these rankings was just how deep the pitching side of the equation is. Most fans are familiar with the big boppers at the top of the system, but the next couple tiers of prospects are filled with pitching (9 pitchers are ranked between 14-23). Many of them were in positions for breakout seasons and lost that opportunity with the pandemic. However, it’s easier for pitchers to stay in game shape than hitters. I’d expect a number of huge breakouts if things return to some degree of normalcy in 2021.

I originally set out to write a usual top 30 prospect rankings, but I’d already written Jose Marte’s scouting report (ranked 31) when the Giants acquired Jordan Humphreys from the Mets. Since Humphreys slotted into my top 30, I decided to keep Marte’s report. If you are hoping to read a report on a player not included, I’ll be sharing writeups on a number of prospects who just missed the rankings soon.

Prospects are ranked based on their future-value grade on the scouting 20-80 scale. A system’s talent tends not to be evenly distributed. Just because someone is ranked one spot away from another, the grades are better indicators of how I classify players than their rankings. Here’s a breakdown of what to make of each grade.

80: Top 5 player in baseball (8+ WAR per season at peak)
70: Top 10 player in the baseball (5-8 WAR)
60: All-Star (3.5-5 WAR)
55: Above-average everyday player (2.5-3.5 WAR)
50: Everyday player (1.5-2.5 WAR)
45: Platoon player (0.5-1.5 WAR)
40: MLB backup (0.2-0.5 WAR)
35: Quad-A player (-0.2-0.2 WAR)
30: Triple-A player
20: Organizational player

Two important notes:

1. The grades next to the players are current expected values, meaning you can think of those grades as the 50% outcome. Obviously, most prospects have a wide range of potential outcomes so those grades are an attempt to quantify the average expected outcome.

2. Some players will have grades with + signs next to them (40+, 45+, etc.). This has to do with the way player grades work. Probably 70-90% of top 30 prospects in each organization fall somewhere from the 40-50 grades. So it can get difficult to differentiate prospect No. 11 from No. 23. Part of this is on purpose, but some 40-grade players are closer to moving up to a 45-grade than others. Hence, the plus. A strong half-season from a 45+ player will almost definitely jump them up to a 50 grade. Same with a 40+ player going to 45.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 31 — RHP Jose Marte

Age: 24
Highest Level: High-A (San Jose)
Acquired: IFA (2015)
Future-Value Grade: 35+

Jose Marte has followed Melvin Adon’s prospect path for some time. Like Adon, Marte was a late-blooming prospect that builds his repertoire around an electric fastball. However, control and consistency ultimately forced Adon to the bullpen and Marte remains likely headed toward that path.

His fastball has good movement and has touched 98 mph. At its best, Marte’s heater sits between 94 and 96 mph. His delivery produces very good extension that plays his velocity up even more. All together, Marte’s fastball has the ability to be a plus or plus-plus pitch. He’s struggled to maintain consistent velocity though, and he’s sat in the 88-94 mph range quite often.

If he can more consistently tap into the peak of his fastball, his changeup and slider have enough to play as a starter. His changeup has flashed as an above-average pitch but has a long way to go. More realistically, his change projects as a 50-grade pitch and his slider should be a usable big-league offering, but not necessarily much more than that.

The early portion of his 2019 season was interrupted by an injury. When he returned in June, it looked like he had made some progress. In his first seven starts at San Jose, had a high ERA, but was victim to a lot of batted-ball luck and a low strand rate while posting encouraging peripherals (11.9 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9). However, perhaps over conscious about avoiding contact, his walks began to spike and his season seemed to derail from there.

Marte was unable to work deep into games (74 innings across 18 appearances) and struggled to limit damage (5.59 ERA). He recorded punchouts at the highest rate of his career (9.7 K/9) but saw his walks move in the wrong direction as well (5.4 BB/9).

Heading into 2020, this minor league season was probably Marte’s last chance to show he could be effective as a starter. If not, he would have followed Adon by moving to the bullpen. His stuff still profiles in the back of a bullpen if he can wrangle his control. Already 24 years old, the chances of Marte reaching his ceiling remain remote. But in that best-case scenario, Marte has a potential three-pitch mix worthy of a mid-rotation spot.

Assuming minor league baseball returns in 2021, it will be interesting to see how the team approaches Marte’s role.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 30 — 3B Sean Roby

Age: 22
Highest Level: Class-A (Augusta)
Acquired: Draft (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 35+

Sean Roby is a perfect example of the prospects hampered by the pandemic shortened season and condensed MLB draft. Not highly recruited out of high school, Roby garnered attention through his impressive work at Arizona Western College. The Giants drafted Roby in the 12th round of the 2018 draft and enticed him to turn pro with a $150,000 signing bonus.

Roby had a solid debut with the Giants Arizona League affiliate but began earning more consistent attention in 2019. At Salem-Keizer, where Roby was younger than most of the college juniors making their pro debuts, Roby hit .338/.429/.450 and won the league’s home run derby.

The Giants promoted Roby for a cup of full-season ball at Augusta before the season came to a close. He never quite adjusted to the jump in competition. In 79 plate appearances, Roby struck out 30 times and batted just .187. At the same time, Roby still flashed his power, recording a .400 slugging percentage.

Roby doesn’t get rave reviews for his athleticism or his glove work. He doesn’t project as an above-average defender at the hot corner and may even have to move positions. It’s not clear where he would fit if he does.

His bat has always been his calling card and it remains his carrying tool. When you see his performance in college and at the Northwest League home run derby, Roby seems to be geared more for power than hit. At the same time, as he discussed in his conversation with Around the Foghorn, he’s historically been at his best when he’s focused on squaring the ball up and allowing his natural raw power to play.

Roby’s raw power may be a 60-grade tool, but at the moment it looks like his hit-tool is inadequate to max out both his hitting and power simultaneously. Instead, he projects to play with an above-average hit tool with easy 50-grade power. At his age, there’s still a chance for him to find an improved swing and approach to allow his bat to reach another level.

The Giants are clearly high on Roby. He was invited to the team’s big-league camp and put together strong at-bats. In just 9 plate appearances, Roby laced a pair of doubles, amassed 5 hits, walked twice, and never struck out. It’s obviously unfair to read into that small a sample, but it was still an intriguing sign that he was beginning to adjust to more premium pitching.

He seemed set to start 2020 back with Augusta, but the Giants new regime has been aggressive with minor league assignments and it wouldn’t have been that shocking to see him start at High-A in San Jose.

Given his relatively limited experience against top-end pitching, Roby is the kind of prospect who might really lose out from the canceled minor league season. According to a source familiar with the situation, Roby is working at The Hitting Zone in Palm Desert, California. If he continues progressing amidst all that’s going on, he could be a dark horse to make a big jump.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 29 — OF Sandro Fabian

Age: 22
Highest Level: High-A (San Jose)
Acquired: IFA (2014)
Future-Value Grade: 35+

Fabian is the first of many outfielders who will appear on this list. There’s no doubt that his development has been stalled by injuries and underdeveloped approach. Still, Sandro Fabian is a legitimate prospect, even if he’s been surpassed on the system’s depth chart.

As a part of the Giants 2014 international free-agent class Fabian signed for a $500,000. He quickly moved through the lower levels of the minor leagues and reached full-season ball as a teenager.

His prospect status peaked after the 2017 season when he hit .277 with 11 home runs as a 19-year-old at Single-A. He produced at around a league-average clip (101 wRC+), but his hyper-aggressive approach was beginning to hamstring his production. In 504 plate appearances, Fabian walked an absurdly low 10 times.

Promoted to High-A in 2018, Fabian saw nearly every hitting category trend in the wrong direction and produced at a .200/.260/.325 clip before an injury cut his season short.

Another injury delayed the start to his 2019 season. By the time he was back with San Jose, outfielders Alexander Canario and Heliot Ramos were in the middle of breakout seasons and the Giants had added outfielder Hunter Bishop in the draft as well. With far less attention than he’d garnered from fans in years past, Fabian quietly put up an encouraging performance.

Fabian played in just 44 games with San Jose before the injury bug cut his season short once again. He put up a solid .287/.353/.413 line. He increased his walk rate to a respectable 7.5% and maintained his strong contact skills with just a 17.6 percent strikeout rate.

Fabian’s arm and ability to consistently put the bat on the ball are his only plus tools. Without a continued improvement in his approach, he won’t be able to tap into his 50-grade power nor really utilize his hit tool. He’s a solid athlete and should be able to stick in right field pretty easily, but lacks the range for center. Given the system’s depth in the outfield, it’s hard to envision him breaking through. However, if he can continue refining his approach, he has everyday potential.

Given his relative proximity to minor-league free-agency, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he pops up on a different big-league club in a few years or is packaged for a lower-minors pitcher.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 28 — RHP Camilo Doval

Age: 23
Highest Level: High-A (San Jose)
Acquired: IFA (2015)
Future-Value Grade: 35+

When the Giants chose Camilo Doval over Melvin Adon for the team’s 60-man summer camp, the organization confirmed that the young righty had become the best relief prospect in the organization.

Doval has legitimate closer upside. He works out of a clunky three-quarters delivery. The motion adds deception but makes it difficult to replicate. There might not be a pitcher in baseball with a wider range of performances.

At his best, Doval frisbees in a high 90s four-seamer that has registered 2700 RPM and a cutter with similar velocity and strong horizontal movement. In other outings, his fastball will barely get out of the low-90s. His slider flashes as an average pitch, but without control of any pitch, it’s hard to take advantage of.

His peculiar arm-angle should enable him to be tough on righthanded batters even if his velocity can never maintain premium velocity, but that’s obviously a far cry from what you’re hoping to get out of a legitimate closer prospect.

In back to back seasons, Doval got cuffed in his first couple outings and then locked into a period of dominance. Below are Doval’s numbers in 2018 (with Class-A Augusta) and 2019 (with High-A San Jose) over the course of the season and with his first three appearances removed.

season       G     IP      ERA    K/9     BB/9
Augusta   44   53     3.06   13.3     4.6
San Jose    45  56.1  3.83   12.8     5.4

                     G     IP      ERA    K/9     BB/9   
Augusta    41  51.2   1.74   13.1     3.3
San Jose    42   54     2.83    12.8       5

Clearly, the walks are still a concern, but a couple of early-season outings have cost Doval at least a run in earned run average for two seasons in a row. Don’t get it twisted, if Doval can find consistency in Giants camp at Sacramento, he could be the best Giants reliever in just a couple years.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 27 — RHP Matt Frisbee

Age: 23
Highest Level: High-A (San Jose)
Acquired: Draft (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 35+

It’s normally pretty hard for a collegiate 15th-round pick to crack prospect rankings after just one full professional season. Matt Frisbee flashed the kind of consistent dominance to put him in the conversation.

A starter for his entire career at UNC-Greensboro, Frisbee was immediately moved to the bullpen for his pro debut in 2018. In 20 relief appearances at Salem-Keizer, Frisbee struck out 36 batters and had a 2.96 ERA. In a conversation with Around the Foghorn last season, Frisbee discussed how he spent the following offseason preparing to work exclusively out of the bullpen.

When he returned to Giants camp, the new player development team had a different thought process. After a couple of relief appearances at Augusta, he was back in the rotation.

Frisbee became the second pitcher from the San Francisco Giants 2018 draft class to receive a promotion to High-A. In the California League, a hitter-friendly environment, Frisbee threw 116.1 innings, walked just 22, struck out 131,  and posted a strong 3.17 ERA. Following the season, Frisbee earned San Jose’s Pitcher of the Year award.

His fastball sits in the 91-93 mph range and has touched 95 mph. It projects as a 50-grade pitch. His slider is his most developed secondary offering and projects as another 50 or possibly 55 offering. Moving forward, his changeup will play a pivotal role in his big-league potential. According to one source with the team, “[Frisbee] added a split, which should really help [him stick as a starter].”

That repertoire is enough to make him a competent 4 or 5 starter if his command continues to develop. Without premium swing-and-miss stuff, Frisbee probably won’t be able to move to a high-leverage bullpen role if he’s unable to stick. However, he seems to be an ideal candidate for a Yusmeiro Petit or 9-12 out swingman role.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 26 — OF Patrick “PJ” Hilson

Age: 19
Highest Level: Rookie (AZL)
Acquired: Draft (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 35+

P.J. Hilson is the definition of a scout’s prospect. Hilson is a plus-plus runner with a plus-plus arm and above-average raw power. Following turning pro, Baseball America named him the best athlete, best arm, and fastest player in the entire Giants system. If everything comes together, that could be the foundation of a game-changer.

Of course, there’s a reason Hilson wasn’t a consensus top pick and fell to the Giants in the 6th round of the 2018 draft. He’s incredibly raw. In 327 career plate appearances in rookie ball, Hilson is hitting .201 with 120 strikeouts.

As is apparent from that performance, his hit tool is very unrefined. Hilson never played travel ball or dove into the showcase circuit. Few guys faced the jump in competition Hilson did when he turned pro.

There remains an outcome where Hilson is able to make enough content to become a star, but that outcome is still years away. Still, expectations should be tempered, even a 65th percentile outcome for Hilson probably doesn’t reach Triple-A.

A less exciting, but more attainable big-league ceiling combines Keon Broxton’s offensive profile with Kevin Kiermeier’s defense. Kiermeier is the best defensive outfielder in baseball and Hilson has the arm, speed, and instincts to play at that level. Broxton, like Hilson, had above-average power, but an underdeveloped hit tool. Broxton struck out in 38.6% of his 1026 career MLB plate appearances but managed a 20/20 season in 2017.

At this point, talking about Hilson’s major league outcomes is silly. He’s so far away and so much can change between now and then that it’s all guesswork. Even though he’s still just 19 years old, he’s mature beyond his years and team officials are confident he has the makeup to maximize his talent.

He would have been back in Rookie Ball to start 2020 and it’s hard to know where he’ll start in a “back to normal” 2021. He’ll be the age of a young college sophomore next year, so it’s worth keeping that context in mind when viewing him as a prospect. While he’s further from his ceiling than anyone else on the list, he has time to reach it.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 25 — OF Franklin Labour

Age: 22
Highest Level: Class-A (Augusta)
Acquired: IFA (2015)
Future-Value Grade: 35+

The Giants signed Franklin Labour for just a $70,000 signing bonus in 2015. He’s proved to be an incredible find by the organization’s international scouts.

Labour held his own from 2016-17 in the Dominican Summer League and earned his way to the domestic pipeline. He held his own in his stateside debut at the Arizona League with a solid .269/.379/.431 line. Still, he’d yet to put together an exceptional performance.

His breakout came last year. Labour exploded out of the gate at the short-season Northwest League. He led the league with 14 home runs while playing in just 41 of Low-A Salem-Keizer’s 76 games. No one else reached double-digits.

The Giants promoted Labour to the Single-A Augusta Greenjackets where for the first time since coming stateside, Labour looked overmatched. He failed to make consistent contact or drive the ball when he did.

There’s reason for concern given his struggles in his first full-season experience. It shouldn’t be considered too much of a red flag yet. He’s six months younger than Logan Wyatt (the Giants second-round pick in the 2019 draft) and wasn’t behind schedule at the time.

This is going to sound repetitive, but every prospect is impacted by the canceled minor league season and those with shorter track-records are especially variable. Labour wouldn’t be on this list with a mediocre performance at Augusta. However, he’d have jumped to a 40-grade prospect with a strong showing.

Power remains Labour’s calling card. He is built like a Group of Five conferences middle linebacker. With the exception of his stint in Augusta, he’s shown the above-average approach and consistent bat-to-ball skills necessary to maximize it. His profile comes with some limitations.

Unsurprisingly he isn’t fast on the bases and doesn’t have great range in the outfield. He has a good enough arm and has flashed the instincts to be passable in right (although probably not at Oracle Park) and should definitely be competent in left.

The organization was clearly confident enough in Labour to promote him to Augusta. If he finds a way to adjust to full-season caliber pitching during 2020, he’d be on track to begin 2021 at San Jose. His track record suggests he’ll find a way to make enough contact to at least be a corner bench bat and has enough potential to be an everyday corner outfielder.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 24 — OF Jairo Pomares

Age: 20
Highest Level: Low-A (Salem-Keizer)
Acquired: IFA (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 40

Jairo Pomares was one of the three big Giants international free-agent signings in the summer of 2019 alongside Luis Matos and Marco Luciano. While Matos and Luciano rocketed up prospect lists last summer, Pomares remains a legitimate prospect.

He doesn’t have the flashy tools or high ceiling of Matos or Luciano, but Pomares was considered the most refined prospect of the trio and he’s proved to be a solid performer. Older than the typical IFA signing, Pomares defected from Cuba, so his advanced age came along with a more extensive track record.

His game doesn’t have any obvious flaws, but it also lacks a carrying tool. His top-end ceiling probably looks something like Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi. While Benintendi hasn’t lived up to the top prospect hype, he’s turned into a solid everyday player who’s an above-average hitter and defender with 45-grade game power.

Last season, Pomares started alongside Luciano stateside in the Arizona Rookie League. Luciano earned most of the headlines with his unprecedented dominance, but Pomares more than held his own. He didn’t overpower opposing pitching, but his mature approach and smooth swing consistently led to hard contact. Before he was promoted to short-season Salem-Keizer, Pomares put up a strong .368/.401/.542 line.

A .422 BABIP was partially responsible for his success and it fell down to earth at Low-A. The difference between the AZL and Northwest League is quite stark. Pomares struggled to make that adjustment. His strikeout rate spiked to 27.4% and he posted a meager .517 OPS.

He didn’t turn 19 until August of last year and there isn’t too much reason for concern. Even if the tools don’t quite develop, Pomares still seems to have a pretty high floor as a AAAA player or 4th outfielder.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 23 — RHP Jordan Humphreys

Age: 24
Highest Level: High-A (Mets affiliate)
Acquired: Trade (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40

It was surprising to see the Giants recoup a prospect of Jordan Humphreys’ caliber in return for a player who clearly wasn’t going to get an opportunity on their big-league roster (Billy Hamilton). I thought Humphreys was still a fringe 35/35+ caliber prospect on the outside looking in of the team’s top 30. However, after talking to one pro scout familiar with Humphreys, I pushed his grade up into the rankings.

Humphreys dominated the lower minor leagues after turning pro out of high school from 2015-17. As just a 21-year old at A-ball, Humphreys struck out 80 batters (against just 9 walks) in 69.2 innings, holding opponents to a 1.42 ERA. A midseason callup to High-A was cut short following the first of many arm injuries that stalled out his career.

After not pitching in 2018 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Humphreys only managed 2 innings with the Mets rookie-ball affiliate last season. Following the end of the minor league season, Humphreys played in the Arizona Fall League, a hotbed of prospect talent. He made 4 appearances and was flashing the prospect potential he’d shown early in his career.

In his limited sample last year, he was sitting 90-93 mph with his fastball and flashed an above-average slider. According to the pro scout who scouted him in Arizona, “he has back-end rotation floor… swing and miss stuff is there. Like the upside and coaches spoke well about his makeup, hard worker.” Most pundits though, see Humphreys more as a back-end piece.

Expectations are that his fastball will improve as he gets back arm strength. Given how little he pitched last season, he showed impressive command and feel on the mound. His changeup was inconsistent and does need to at least be a usable pitch, but it’s reasonable to expect that to come with more consistent reps.

Health remains the impediment to Humphreys’ development. He underwent another minor surgery early in 2019 and this summer, with the Mets summer camp, Humphreys dealt with a hamstring issue that cost him some time. Given how many reps he’s already lost, it’s going to be difficult for him to handle anymore extended time away from the field.

It’s hard to rank players who haven’t played affiliate ball in 2020. It’s even harder with someone who’s basically thrown 13 recorded innings since 2017. With that in mind, it seems hard to envision the Mets parting with someone they thought was close to contributing for Billy Hamilton. At the same time, perhaps that gives Mets brass too much credit. Humphreys has shown the ability to be a big-league starter and has the stuff to do it. The Giants assigned him to their camp in Sacramento, which shows they’re quite high on his prospects.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 22 — RHP Jake Wong

Age: 23
Highest Level: High-A (San Jose)
Acquired: Draft (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 40

A third-round pick in 2018, right-hander Jake Wong peaked as a prospect during his junior season at Grand Canyon University. His fastball sat in the mid-90s and touched 97 mph at times. However, his velocity has dipped as a professional. He projected as a mid-rotation starter or a premium back of the bullpen arm in college and that remains the case.

His stuff still flashes the pieces of a mid-rotation starter, but they lack consistency and polish. Working in the 92-94 mph range, his fastball’s combination of run and sink do allow it to play up and it still profiles as a potentially above-average pitch. His curveball is of the 11-to-5 variety and also has the potential to be a 55-grade pitch. He needs to improve his changeup command, but he maintains his arm action well and it could become an average big-league pitch with progress.

Wong is the midpoint between the refined approach of the Giants 2018 second-round pick Sean Hjelle and the premium stuff of fifth-rounder Blake Rivera. He has good control, but his command needs to make some strides before he can handle the competition in the upper-minors as a starter.

He began 2019 on the same developmental path as Hjelle, starting the season dominating at Augusta before earning a promotion to San Jose. However, when Hjelle was promoted with Heliot Ramos and Joey Bart to Double-A, Wong stayed put.

Wong maintained a solid (roughly 22%) strikeout rate in High-A and only surrendered walks in 0.6% more of his plate appearances. His .226 BABIP at Augusta skyrocketed to .335 at San Jose. His sinkerballer should induce softer contact and groundballs, but it’s hard to believe that large of a disparity was caused by much in Wong’s control. In fact, according to FanGraphs Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) metrics, Wong was only marginally less effective at High-A than at A-ball (4.09 FIP vs 3.34 FIP).

Neither metric was particularly impressive for a top draft pick. His trajectory is reminiscent of Giants reliever Shaun Anderson. Anderson was also a third-round pick. He never dominated but was a successful starter throughout the minors. Thus far though, that success hasn’t translated to the highest level, and instead, Anderson looks more like a premium bullpen arm. There’s nothing wrong with that, but barring a big step forward, the chances Wong can stick in the rotation seem lower than they were last season.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 21 — RHP Trevor McDonald

Age: 19
Highest Level: Rookie (AZL)
Acquired: Draft (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40

Trevor McDonald was projected as a third to fifth-round prospect by most rankings leading up to the 2019 draft. Generally speaking, prep pitchers tend to have the widest variation in opinions. It’s not shocking to see a player get drafted towards the end of Day 1 with those rankings. When he wasn’t selected in the first ten rounds of the draft though, many assumed he was going to honor his commitment to South Alabama.

Instead, due to MLB’s complicated draft spending rules, the Giants finagled their spending to sign him for an $800,000 bonus, equivalent to the slot-value of a late-Day 1 selection.

McDonald first made waves by striking out 88 batters and posting a 1.49 ERA during his junior year in high school. Still, he was considered a top recruit more than a premium pro prospect.

That offseason, he made a bold decision to try and take a step forward. McDonald took a break from pitching and focused on bulking up his scrawny frame. It showed pretty quick results. After adding 20 pounds, his fastball held 91-93 mph throughout most of his starts while touching 95 mph as a senior.

On its face, a low-90s fastball isn’t particularly noteworthy. However, McDonald had already shown advanced pitchability and feel for a breaking ball that has the potential to be a 60-grade pitch. McDonald also works from an unorthodox delivery that adds deception and helps his velocity play up, according to one industry source.

At the same time, his delivery is the source of some scouts concern. Many believe McDonald’s motion has too many moving parts to stick in the rotation. While it isn’t how you’d draw it up, Giants officials are confident that McDonald has shown enough consistency to make it work.

He still needs to make a lot of progress with his changeup. It’s unlikely it’ll be able to develop into much more than a 45-grade pitch, but his other stuff is good enough to make it work.

Due to the draft bonus finagling, McDonald had to wait longer than most other prospects to sign last year. That meant his debut in the AZL came later and only lasted three appearances. He was quite impressive, but it’s hard to read much into it.

Prospects with the shortest track records are the hardest to gauge without a minor-league season. Still, McDonald has the tools to be a mid-rotation starter. If his velo regresses or changeup fails to develop, he should be a solid long-relief option as well.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 20 — 3B Casey Schmitt

Age: 21
Highest Level: NCAA (San Diego State)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40

Casey Schmitt seemed like a late 3rd-5th round prospect heading into the draft and I admittedly was critical of the pick, but the more people I’ve talked to, the more I’ve come to respect the selection. He ended up signing for a well-below slot signing bonus that enabled the team to sign prep southpaw Kyle Harrison and has the tools to be elite at the hot corner.

Schmitt was a two-way contributor at San Diego State where he served as an everyday third baseman and high-leverage bullpen arm with a low-90s fastball and a nasty splitter. While the Giants PR team shared his information as a 3B/RHP, the team has been pretty clear that they plan to develop him solely at third.

Schmitt has big-time tools. He has soft hands defensively at third base and obviously carries a plus arm. At the plate, Schmitt showed solid plate discipline and has legit plus raw power. In games though, his power has never really shown up consistently.

In 508 career collegiate plate appearances, Schmitt managed just 6 career home runs. In the wood bat Cape Cod League, Schmitt did hit 5 big flies in just 149 trips to the plate, but his overall offensive production wasn’t particularly impressive (.248/.329/.411).

That profile has led some to dream up comps between Schmitt and A’s star Matt Chapman. While both have a similar combination of tools and collegiate underperformance, it’s unfair to compare anyone to such an established star. In a perfect world, if Schmitt reaches his 99th percentile outcome, sure, he could be a player akin to Chapman, but that’s an unfair comp to make at this point.

While the organization seems committed to his play at the hot corner, his pitching background gives him a pretty solid floor. Even if he never fully maximizes his power, Schmitt should be able to find a way to contribute.

It’s not unreasonable to see Schmitt becoming a future 45 reliever and batter, which might allow him to consistently contribute 1.5-2.5 wins above replacement with a creative coaching staff and front office.

For now though, the focus will be on his hit tool. It remains heavily underdeveloped and is the main reason his power is inconsistent and, at times, invisible. Some scouts remain high on Schmitt’s potential to develop at the plate, especially because of his strong approach.

It’s worth noting that Schmitt tore his right meniscus before the start of this season, so his Cape Cod League performance might have been a better show of his current state.

If you take into account some bad batted-ball luck (BABIP of .252) it begins to paint a different picture of his performance. If Schmitt had recorded base hits on just five more balls in play, which would’ve raised his BABIP to .299, his OPS would’ve been north of .800.

It’ll be interesting to see where Schmitt makes his first professional appearances. The Giants might want him to make some severe adjustments that’ll lead them to be a bit underwhelming with his assignment.

Schmitt is a rare combination of floor and ceiling from a collegiate prospect. While at first many were surprised by the selection, the more you look at him, the more you can see what the Giants are dreaming on.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 19 — RHP Gregory Santos

Age: 20
Highest Level: Class-A (Augusta)
Acquired: Trade (2017)
Future-Value Grade: 40

Gregory Santos was a lottery ticket attached to Shaun Anderson when the Giants acquired him from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Eduardo Nunez at the trade deadline in 2017. Santos pretty quickly began to take steps forward, but remains a longshot to reach his potential.

The 20-year-old has a mid-90s sinker and cutter that he pairs with a slider that also flashes plus. He began throwing a changeup for strikes last season and while it doesn’t project as more than an average pitch, it doesn’t need to be much more than that for him to succeed.

Big-time velocity helped Santos earn a $275,000 signing bonus as an international free agent. A lack of control and secondary pitch limited his market from getting much bigger. With the Red Sox affiliate in the Dominican Summer League, both things were playing out. He wasn’t giving up hard contact and racked up a decent amount of strikeouts, but a substantial amount of walks were along for the ride as well.

As soon as he moved to the Giants organization things shifted. All of a sudden, Santos was working deeper into games and walking far fewer.

Then the injury bug hit.

Both Santos’ 2018 and 2019 seasons were hampered by injuries and ultimately prevented him from rocketing up the team’s rankings like he looked capable.

At his best, Santos has shown the potential to have two-plus pitches alongside a passable changeup. Even if his control only reaches a 40-grade (50 is considered league-average), his stuff is nasty enough to be a mid-rotation starter.

When he’s been healthy, Santos’ fastball hasn’t quite garnered the strikeout rate you would expect, which suggests there may be some characteristics that play down a bit. Still, if he’s healthy and can find enough control, there’s a lot to play with.

There are too many red-flags to get heavily invested in Santos’ status. With that said, his age is important to remember. He’s nearly five months younger than Nick Swiney (the Giants compensatory round B selection in the 2020 draft) so the Giants have no rush to push his arm.

Assuming Santos stays in decent shape, the break may be good for Santos to get rested up before an opportunity to breakout in 2021.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 17 — LHP Kyle Harrison

Age: 19
Highest Level: High School (De La Salle)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

The Giants drafted Harrison with the 85th overall selection in this summer’s draft but was given a lucrative $2.5MM signing bonus equivalent to the slot-value of a late first-round pick. While the Giants drafted four players before Harrison, he received the second-highest bonus of the crop.

Harrison is a well-developed prep arm who’s far enough ahead that his advanced age (closer to 19 than 18) doesn’t raise the same red flags as it would for a more erratic pitcher. His profile isn’t too dissimilar from Trevor McDonald.

Both were over-slot prep pitchers the Giants nabbed later in the draft than expected. Both players put on 15-20 lbs leading up to their senior season and showed the ability to hold low-90s velocity on a fastball with strong spin rates that play up alongside a potentially plus breaking ball.

His motion isn’t as clean as it could be and he tends to short arm his pitches, which generates inconsistent arm action, but that leaves some more ways to dream on his development. Generally, if guys can pitch they can make the necessary improvements and Harrison has that ability.

While most draft pundits considered Harrison a second to fourth round prospect, one industry source said in the limited sample he saw this spring he thought he was a “first-round guy.”

A local De La Salle product, the Giants should have been in the best position to get a look at what he could do. On paper, it doesn’t look like Harrison has a ceiling much higher than 3 or 4 starter, but does seem to be a pretty good bet to get there.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 16 — RHP Tristan Beck

Age: 24
Highest Level: High-A (San Jose)
Acquired: Trade (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Tristan Beck was a candidate to be a top-five pick in the 2018 draft entering his final year at Stanford. Shoulder injuries and inconsistency ultimately derailed his season and his stock plummeted. The Atlanta Braves ended up signing him to an above-slot bonus as a fourth-round pick.

The Braves were especially cautious with Beck given his injury history. As a result, he has yet to pitch above the High-A level, despite turning 24 in May. With that said, it was still a boon for the Giants to acquire Beck and offload Mark Melancon’s contract at the 2019 trade deadline.

Prior to the deadline, Beck posted a 5.65 ERA with the Braves High-A affiliate, but his peripherals (9.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 3.07 FIP, and 2.93 xFIP) suggested he had been a victim of bad luck. After joining the Giants High-A affiliate (San Jose), Beck maintained his peripheral success from earlier in the season, while also seeing more tangible results.

Beck’s fastball sits around 92 mph and his curveball has looked like a plus pitch since high school. In his peak as a prospect, his fastball routinely sat in the mid-90s and approached triple-digits. While he has yet to regain that consistent form, according to one source, TrackMan had Beck touching 97 mph prior to the trade. Following the acquisition, he was beginning to touch the mid-90s much more consistently.

Beck followed up his strong close to the season with an impressive performance at the Arizona Fall League. Beck posted a respectable 3.63 ERA and struck out 23 batters in 22.1 innings against just 7 walks.

It’s still difficult to project Beck going forward. His extensive injury history already complicates matters, and his erratic velocity leave room to dream. Even without premium velocity, he has a potential plus curveball and league-average changeup. Those secondary pitches should be enough to be an effective back of the rotation arm with a low-90s heater. Given his injury history and the evolution of pitching staffs, he could be the perfect fit for a short-starter role that limits him to 125 innings or so a season.

He would’ve started 2020 at Double-A and may have vaulted into the system’s top ten with a strong start. Instead, we’ll have to wait and see. Beck’s report is filled with a lot of questions, but the last we saw of him in 2019 showed a healthy starter that looked like a potential mid-rotation piece.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 15 — RHP Kai-Wei Teng

Age: 21
Highest Level: Class-A (Augusta)
Acquired: Trade (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

When the Giants traded Sam Dyson to the Twins at the 2019 trade deadline, Teng was packaged alongside Jaylin Davis and Prelander Berroa. Teng saw an uptick in production as soon as he joined the new organization.

With Minnesota’s Single-A affiliate, Teng threw 50.2 innings and posted an impressive 1.60 ERA. However, after joining the Giants at the same level for his final five starts of the season, Teng produced a 1.55 ERA, saw a spike in his strikeout rate (8.7 to 12.1 K/9), and a dip in his walk rate (2.5 to 2.2 BB/9).

Just 21 years old, Teng doesn’t have the projection left typical of someone his age. He’s already 6’4” and 260 pounds and has pretty much maxed out his frame. He has very smooth mechanics and a good feel for a slider, changeup, and curveball. He works off a low arm-slot that probably will prevent his fastball from ever topping the low-90s. None of his pitches project as plus, but all have the potential to be 50-grade pitches.

Pitchability prospects tend to perform really well in the lower minor leagues, but then stall as they progress. Guys like Clayton Blackburn and Edwin Escobar both come to mind. Teng comes with similar caveats, but his secondary pitches are more advanced than both Escobar and Blackburn at this point.

If it all comes together, Teng could be a solid innings eater. Most likely, he falls somewhere from a swingman role to a back-of-the-rotation arm. Assuming he can maintain his frame and pitchability over the break, he’s a pretty good candidate to move quickly through the system.

He was particularly dominant last year, so we may be underselling what he’s capable of. However, it’s hard to foresee his stuff taking another step as is. When he does get back to affiliate ball, Teng could be a prime candidate to move quickly up the system.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 14 — RHP Blake Rivera

Age: 22
Highest Level: Class-A (Augusta)
Acquired: Draft (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

I originally had Rivera slotted behind Jake Wong, but after talking to a source familiar with the Giants system, I bumped him up. Rivera has big-time stuff that is nearly ready to play in the back of a big-league bullpen, but Giants brass is confident he can stick as a starter.

His control and command have been spotty (4.81 BB/9 in 2019), but scouts see Rivera’s repeatable delivery and athletic frame (6’4”-225 lbs.) as signs of better consistency to come. If it does, he has one of the highest ceilings of any starter in the system.

Rivera’s best and most consistent pitch is his 12-6 curveball. Scouts are split on whether it projects as an above-average or plus pitch. Reports are the pitch has premium spin-rate and sharp downward break that suggests plus is attainable. His changeup oscillates wildly from a virtually unthrowable pitch to a secondary that could be an average big-league offering.

Ultimately how well Rivera harnesses his secondary pitches will determine whether he can stick in the rotation. If he can, how well his fastball plays will determine what his ceiling is. Rivera’s fastball can sit from 94-96 mph and touch 98 mph. That velocity combined with effective cut and a high 2600 RPM spin-rate allows it to play up as a potential 65-grade pitch.

At the moment, Rivera struggles to hold his velocity deep into games, often sitting in the low-90s. His fastball would still project as an above-average pitch, but if he doesn’t find a way to generate more consistent premium velocity his ceiling is probably more as a 4 starter. Corraling consistent premium velocity would move that window to a strong mid-rotation and maybe even fringe 2 starter.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 13 — LHP Nick Swiney

Age: 21
Highest Level: NCAA (NC State)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Giants scouting director Michael Holmes built his reputation working in the Carolinas and he’s been very keen on tapping into his experience over the past two draft cycles. When the Giants selected Swiney with the 66th pick in the 2020 draft, he joined former NC State teammates Will Wilson and Patrick Bailey in San Francisco’s system.

Coming into this spring, Swiney was an intriguing pop-up prospect, moving from the Wolfpack bullpen to rotation. The pandemic shortened season left evaluators just four official starts to work off of. FanGraphs ranked Swiney the 51st best prospect in the draft and Keith Law of The Athletic ranked him as the 22nd best prospect, but most other rankings had him ranked around 80. The Giants signed him for an over-slot $1,200,000 signing bonus to make sure they could have him.

Swiney fits the pitching profile that the Giants have favored since Holmes took over. The southpaw doesn’t have traditional overpowering stuff. As a starter, his fastball works in the low-90s and sat around 93-95 mph when he worked out of the pen.

His fastball works alongside a changeup and curveball. The breaking ball projects as above-average and gets some plus grades. However, he’s made some notable strides with his changeup and it looks like it could be an above-average big-league pitch as well.

Working out of the bullpen through his first two seasons, Swiney racked up strikeouts, but it came with sacrificed control. As a sophomore, Swiney struck out 95 batters in less than 60 innings but walked nearly 5 batters per innings. He’s been open that his mindset out of the pen was too focus on punchouts even if that sacrificed control.

This offseason, Swiney prepared to move into the rotation with a new mindset. It seemed to work. In 28 innings, Swiney struck out 42 and walked just 6 batters across 4 starts.

Law believed Swiney was going to pitch himself into the first round when the season was cut short. Perhaps that’s the case, but reading too much into any 4-start stretch can be a dangerous proposition.

There’s no denying his effectiveness. Pitch-tracking data seems keen on Swiney’s fastball movement to help it play beyond its velocity as well. While the track record remains short-lived, there is reason to believe he can be a mid to back of rotation arm.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 12 — 1B Logan Wyatt

Age: 22
Highest Level: Class-A (Augusta)
Acquired: Draft (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

In the lead up to the 2019 MLB Draft, I was on the low side of Logan Wyatt as a prospect. However, like Casey Schmitt in 2020, once the Giants selected the first baseman and I looked into the pick, my perception shifted.

After looking deeper at the track record of collegiate first baseman as prospects I started to notice a trend. The best MLB first basemen selected out of college had profiles a lot more like Wyatt than you might expect.

Take a look at the college statistics of Max Muncy and Rhys Hoskins. While power is now their carrying tool, that wasn’t the case at all in college. Even Paul Goldschmidt showed good power, but nothing to make one think he would emerge as one of the best power hitters in the sport.

One trend connects all these players. While power output varied, everyone walked more than they struck out. It seems that the key was a foundation of strong plate discipline. Almost all drafted players with first baseman profiles have powerful frames. Given the recent developments in swing science, players have been able to make adjustments to maximize their strength.

Wyatt had arguably the best plate discipline in college baseball. Over his sophomore and junior seasons, he walked 131 times in 608 plate appearances and struck out just 84 times. His hit tool remains ahead of his power tool, and that showed at Louisville, the Cape Cod League, and his pro debut.

At the Cape last summer, Wyatt led the league in walks (29) while still managing to avoid strikeouts (24) over 168 plate appearances. He posted a respectable .305/.458/.438 line.

There’s potential for more pop. Even his manager at Louisville admitted he had asked Wyatt to be “greedier” at the plate. He has 50-55 grade raw power and if a swing adjustment could tap into more of that power with his approach, the makings of a Justin Morneau are there.

Giants scouting director Michael Holmes has claimed Wyatt has the necessary athleticism to be playable as a corner outfielder, but that seems a bit too hopeful for most prognosticators’ taste. While he’s a smooth athlete with soft hands and a solid arm that makes him an above-average first baseman, his 30-grade speed limits how much ground he can cover.

His pro debut was a bit underwhelming, especially considering his slightly advanced age for his class (he turned 22 last November). At the same time, Wyatt may be the kind of player who never tears up any minor-league level, but consistently produces around a .270/.380/.400 clip.

As is, Wyatt could probably reach the majors relatively quickly as an on-base machine with doubles power. More likely, they will want him to make adjustments to generate more life and that usually comes with growing pains.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 11 — SS Will Wilson

Age: 22
Highest Level: Rookie (AZL)
Acquired: Trade (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

When the Angels signed Anthony Rendon to a massive seven-year, $245MM contract last offseason, Los Angeles wanted to save money on the rest of their payroll. With just one year left on his contract, infielder Zack Cozart’s salary was one of the easier to move. To entice the Giants to take Cozart’s contract off their hands, the Angels packaged him with Will Wilson.

The Angels selected Wilson with the 15th overall pick in the 2019 draft. A consensus first-round pick, the opportunity to acquire a prospect of that caliber without giving up a top asset is almost unheard of. Naturally, that came with a cost.

The Giants officially acquired Cozart and Wilson for upper-minor league southpaw Garrett Williams. Cozart was released shortly after the transaction, effectively making the trade Williams and about $13.3M for Wilson.

Wilson isn’t as toolsy as one might expect from a first-round pick and that probably made it easier for the Angels to part with him. With that said, Wilson was an extremely strong performer in college and was particularly favorited by teams more reliant on statistical models.

Scouts don’t think Wilson has star upside, but he has a potential 55 hit and power tool. His glove won’t make or break his career, but even if he stalls out defensively, he has a decent chance to be an above-average everyday player. His defense at short improved substantially over his collegiate career, but his defensive future is still uncertain. According to one industry source, “[He’s got a] chance to be an offensive second baseman who can spell at short.”

While reading into pro debut’s is always a bit difficult. Wilson’s play last summer left a lot to be desired. In 205 plate appearances with the Angels Arizona Rookie League affiliate, he managed an underwhelming .275/.328/.439 triple-slash line even with substantial batted-ball luck (.343 BABIP). Most concerningly, he struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances.

On the surface, those numbers don’t stand out, but it’s rare for top collegiate prospects to appear in rookie ball for more than a week and even rarer for them not to dominate the competition.

Wilson still gets rave character reviews from insiders and was young for his class. Still, his full-season debut was going to be one of the more interesting developments this season. Had he continued to struggle at Augusta (or San Jose), Wilson’s stock would have lost a good amount of value. At the same time, a strong showing would have made it easy to explain the rookie-league performance as a side-effect of playing pro ball so soon after a draining college season.

The Giants invited Wilson to the team’s 60-man summer camp and he will get a valuable challenge against the periphery of the organization’s big-league roster and top prospects. While losing the minor league season will be a substantial amount of lost reps, Wilson has a chance to move very quickly if he is back on track.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 10 — RHP Sean Hjelle

Age: 23
Highest Level: Double-A (Richmond)
Acquired: Draft (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 45

Considered one of the most MLB-ready prospects in the 2018 draft class, Sean Hjelle was selected by the San Francisco Giants near the top of the second round.

The towering right-hander has a unique profile. Just a half-inch short of seven feet tall, Hjelle isn’t like other notable towering pitchers like Randy Johnson and Jon Rauch who relied on premium velocity. Instead, he has excellent control and works off containing hard contact.

He started 2019 with Single-A Augusta and earned a promotion to High-A San Jose after just nine starts. After 14 more starts, he joined Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos in a late-season promotion to Double-A Richmond.

Hjelle projects to have four average or better offerings with a fastball, slider/cutter hybrid, curveball, and changeup. None of them project as elite, but his size adds a level of variability that could help them play up.

If he were an average height for a pitcher, he’d project like a right-handed version of Andrew Suarez—someone expected to move quickly with a shot to stick in the back of a rotation. Given the uniqueness of his delivery and the potential for him to add strength to his frame to increase his velocity, he has more upside than the average prospect.

At the same time, he stalled a bit once he reached Double-A. Advanced hitters consistently squared him up, especially the second and third times through the order. Granted, Hjelle also faced a .430 BABIP that suggests his 6.04 ERA included plenty of bad luck, and his 3.33 FIP and 3.59 xFIP further that point.

The Giants didn’t hesitate to promote him aggressively in 2019, and while he was likely ticketed for a return trip to Double-A, he’ll be forced to maintain his stock on his own. The organization logically believes that it’s easier for pitchers to stay in top form individually than hitters. So while prospects like Wilson are in Sacramento at the team’s alternate camp, Hjelle is not.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 9 — 3B Luis Toribio

Age: 19
Highest Level: Low-A (Salem-Keizer)
Acquired: IFA (2017)
Future-Value Grade: 45

Luis Toribio has long been held in high regard by those within the organization. He’s shown the maturity of a player plucked from the college ranks both physically and emotionally for some time, and one source said back in 2019, “He already carries himself like a big leaguer.”

Toribio received a $300,000 signing bonus in the 2017 international signing period and he remains the gem of the class. A strong debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 put him on people’s radar, but scouts generally like to see stateside production before drawing any conclusions.

In the DSL, he hit 10 home runs in just 64 games and tallied nearly as many walks (51) as strikeouts (62). However, walk rates in the DSL can sometimes be deceiving. Last season, in his stateside debut, he maintained that impressive discipline with 47 walks in 54 games.

His maturity works against projecting Toribio since, like Teng, he lacks the projection standard for someone his age. There’s enough there to see an above-average everyday player, but there isn’t a lot of room for error.

Toribio has already maxed out his 6’1” frame. He’s also a below-average runner, but his soft hands and strong arm project as above-average at the hot corner. As more and more teams have begun moving players like Mike Moustakas to second base that could be a long-term option as well.

While no tool outside of his strike-zone awareness project as plus, there’s a potential combination of above-average hit and power tools.

The early results stateside were quite positive, as he hit .296/.433/.454 between rookie ball and Low-A Salem-Keizer. While effective, that production does seem to mirror similar problems Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds showed as a prospect in the Giants system.

Both Reynolds and Toribio shared impeccable patience and raw power that seemed to more consistently result in doubles than home runs. The key difference is Reynolds was an above-average athlete with the ability to play center field. Limited to a corner, Toribio will probably have to turn more doubles into home runs. That may play like an early-career Jose Ramirez, but is a much harder road.

For now, Toribio has the ceiling of an above-average everyday player, with a high enough floor that he’s a safe bet to at least develop into a solid bench bat or platoon option if he falls short of that ceiling. He’ll definitely be challenged at the team’s alternate site and has a chance to move quite quickly. The team may very well see him as the long-term replacement for Evan Longoria.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 8 — C Patrick Bailey

Age: 21
Highest Level: NCAA (NC State)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 45

The public scouting community consensus seemed to view Patrick Bailey’s offensive profile as a poor man’s comp of Joey Bart with a ceiling for his hit tool around 50 and power at 55 that probably ends up as a 45/55 profile (Bart is more around 55/60 and likely 50/60). However, it seemed that a few Giants insiders believe Bailey has the potential to be above-average across the board.

Bailey’s approach helps alleviate some of the overall concerns. Over his career at NC State he walked 86 times in 578 plate appearances alongside 93 strikeouts. In fact, his career triple-slash line of .302/.411/.568 is quite comparable to his former teammate and recently acquired Giants prospect Will Wilson when he played at NC State.

A switch-hitter, Bailey has been equally effective from both sides of the plate, so there does not appear to be too much platoon risk and his makeup gets consistently rave reviews. Bailey, like Bart, called pitches for the entirety of his collegiate career (and even called pitches in high school).

Still, Bailey’s closest thing to a premium tool is his work behind the plate. A “premium defender” according to one insider, Bailey was the best defensive catcher available in the draft.

One wrinkle that hasn’t been discussed with Bailey is the potential for him to play elsewhere. Since he’s a consensus solid defensive catcher, scouts never really questioned whether he’d have to move positions, but with Bart already in the organization, it remains an open question.

Bailey is considered a good athlete for a catcher, but it’s unclear if that translates elsewhere on the diamond. It’s worth noting that last year the Giants suggested they thought their second-round pick (Logan Wyatt) could handle the outfield when almost everyone considered him a first-base only prospect, implying they may have faith in their ability to teach positional flexibility.

Bailey has been with Bart and the rest of the Giants alternate camp invitees in Sacramento. He and Bart have both taken grounders on the infield at first base. Bailey made some waves when reports emerged that he’d homered off of Trevor Cahill in an intrasquad game. According to a source, Bailey’s homer recorded a 104 mph exit-velocity and traveled an estimated distance of 421 feet. Not a bad way to make a solid impression.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 7 — OF Luis Matos

Age: 18
Highest Level: Rookie (AZL)
Acquired: IFA (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 45+

Luis Matos was the third member of the San Francisco Giants trio of International free-agent signings last summer highlighted by Marco Luciano and Jairo Pomares. While Pomares and Luciano debuted stateside, Matos was held back in the Dominican Summer League.

From the jump, Matos seemed too good for the DSL. After putting up a .362/.430/.570 line while stealing 20 bases in 55 games, the team finally brought Matos to the Arizona League. He went 7-for-16 in five games before the rookie ball season concluded.

As a teenager, speed seemed like Matos’ calling card and his only potential plus tool. However, Matos has shown some explosive bat speed and even greater upside in his short professional career. There’s now an outcome with potential plus power and speed paired with an above-average hit tool and decent centerfield defense.

His swing is geared more for line-drives than power but so far he’s overmatched his competition so much it hasn’t made a difference. Matos hit 34 extra-base hits in just 60 games in 2019.

In last year’s ranking, I wrote he’d need to stick in center to be an above-average everyday player. That’s no longer the case. Roger Munter over at There Are Giants was high on Matos early on and he was right. Matos’ upside is far higher than I acknowledged.

Matos’ swing and toolset are somewhat reminiscent of Mookie Betts. He’s obviously a long way off, but at his age (he won’t be 19 until January of next year), Matos is comparable to the top high school prospects in this year’s draft. His resume would probably rank him on par and maybe even above guys like Robert Hassell III, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Zac Veen.

This offseason, Matos worked to shape his body, putting on 15-20 pounds of muscle. If he continues focusing on his physique, Matos should have no problem sticking in center. If he does bulk up a bit too much, his arm profiles better in left than right field.

Obviously barely playing above the Dominican Summer League, Matos’ approach and pitch recognition have yet to be tested. Tools can only go as far as those things allow them to play. What makes it hard to gauge Matos is he hasn’t faced any high-level pitching. If those skills are there, he’ll be a top-100 prospect in no time. If they aren’t, he’ll be a much higher variance commodity.

While it’s unusual for a player to see full-season ball without playing with Low-A Salem-Keizer, it wouldn’t have been shocking to see Matos start this season alongside Pomares and Luciano at Single-A Augusta. Not in Sacramento at the alternate site, Matos has been training on his own with some other Latin American prospects including his cousin (and recently acquired) Luis Alexander Basabe.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 6 — LHP Seth Corry

Age: 21
Highest Level: Class-A (Augusta)
Acquired: Draft (2017)
Future-Value Grade: 45+

The previous scouting regime selected a trio of high school prospects at the top of the 2017 draft. All three—Heliot Ramos, Jacob Gonzalez, and Seth Corry—stalled during the 2018 season and some became concerned that the class could be a catastrophic bust.

While Gonzalez seems like a nonfactor moving forward, both Corry and Ramos had career years in 2019.

As a prep pitcher in Utah, Corry drew comparisons to a young Matt Moore. Back then, he was a two-pitch pitcher who worked off a 90-92 mph fastball and a curveball with advanced feel that projected as a plus pitch. He’s since added a changeup that proved pivotal in his 2019 success.

According to one industry source, Corry’s changeup generated a whiff rate of over 46% in 2019. That kind of effectiveness suggests it has the potential to be another above-average pitch. His fastball still sits in the low 90s, but it has an above-average spin rate and touches 95 mph occasionally. His curveball remains his best pitch, averaging over 2,600 rpms and generating whiffs on over 50 percent of swings against it in the South Atlantic League.

From the onset of his pro career, Corry has missed bats, striking out roughly a batter an inning at each level. However, he tended to walk roughly a batter an inning as well.

Last year, in his first full-season assignment, Corry got off to a start reminiscent of Kyle Crick’s minor league career. Into June, Corry had a great 2.58 ERA and accrued 69 strikeouts in just 45.1 innings, but he had also issued 36 walks. Then a mechanical adjustment allowed him to take off.

From the start of July to the end of the season, Corry made 11 starts. During that span, he posted a 0.99 ERA in 63.2 innings, struck out 86 and allowed just 16 free passes.

Corry has always had a better handle on his offspeed pitches than his fastball, which tends to be a better sign than the reverse. Still, there is a marked difference between control and command. Giants fans have become accustomed to pitching prospects like Andrew Suarez, Shaun Anderson, and Conner Menez showing low walk-rates in the minors that inflate at the major league level.

This season was expected to be pivotal for Corry’s prospect status. Maintaining his gains in control and taking another step forward with the development of his changeup could have moved him into most top 100 prospect lists by midseason. However, any regression would’ve called his strong finish in 2019 into question.

Corry will go as far as his control will take him. He has the stuff to be a solid mid-rotation arm or lefthanded setup option but finding consistent mechanics will be pivotal. As previously stated, the Giants prioritized bringing hitting prospects to the alternate site in Sacramento, so Corry will be working out on his own to keep progressing for whenever he returns to affiliate ball.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 5 — OF Hunter Bishop

Age: 22
Highest Level: Low-A (Salem-Keizer)
Acquired: Draft (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 50

The San Francisco Giants had the No. 10 overall pick in the 2019 draft. Picking at the back-end of the top ten gave the organization a number of intriguing options, but obviously kept them from landing the best few prospects in the class.

They ended up selecting Arizona State outfielder Hunter Bishop, a player who had been in the conversation to be a top-five selection just a couple of weeks prior to the draft, but was dislodged when other teams decided to go in a different direction.

Bishop’s combination of power and athleticism first had him on scouts’ radars in high school. He starred as a two-sport athlete and originally committed to play safety at the University of Washington on a football scholarship before changing directions and enrolling at ASU.

A San Mateo, California native, Bishop’s powerful 6’5”, 210-pound frame generates 70-grade raw power and flashes 60-grade speed.

In his first two seasons at Arizona State, Bishop’s incredible tools did not result in productivity. Entering his junior year, Bishop had just 10 home runs in 100 career games with a middling .276 batting average.

At the Cape Cod League in 2018, he continued only flashing his tools. Against the best collegiate prospects, he stole nine bases and hit four home runs but finished with a .233/.369/.350 line while striking out in over 30 percent of his trips to the plate.

His potential combination of plus-speed and plus-power alone would have still gotten him chosen sometime on Day 2 of the draft. However, late in the summer at the Cape, Bishop reworked his stance and made some adjustments to his approach that would prove valuable.

As a junior, he exploded out of the gate and finished the season with a monstrous .347/.473/.765 line that included 22 home runs.

He played center field in college and his speed gives him the potential to stick there, but he tends to struggle with reads and has a below-average arm. As a result, he likely profiles as a future left fielder with above-average range.

Bishop’s hit tool will ultimately determine whether the pick is a bust or a steal. Before his breakout season, Bishop routinely struck out in over 30 percent of his plate appearances and struggled to tap into his power. He trimmed his strikeout rate considerably last spring and during his brief pro debut, but concerns remain.

While second-round pick Logan Wyatt earned a late-season promotion to Single-A Augusta, Bishop took more time to get adjusted to professional pitching and finished the season on the injured list. His power potential didn’t play much in his debut, but his injury and extended layoff between the end of his season at Arizona State and his pro debut are understandable excuses.

Most importantly, Bishop walked in over 25 percent of his plate appearances a positive trend that carried over from his junior year.

The Giants are betting that the steps he took in his junior season were the new normal, not an aberration. He probably would have started this season at High-A, but even without a season, he has begun trickling onto top-100 prospect lists.

Bishop tested positive for COVID-19 and underwent an extended testing ordeal before finally being cleared to join the team’s alternate site in Sacramento. Now there, he’ll get a chance to work back into game shape against advanced pitching.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 4 — OF Alexander Canario

Age: 20
Highest Level: Low-A (Salem-Keizer)
Acquired: IFA (2016)
Future-Value Grade: 50

Since early in 2019, Alexander Canario may have been a consensus top-100 prospect if he wasn’t in a system so flush with outfield talent. While both Bishop and Ramos got on prognosticators radar through the draft process, Canario quietly signed for a meager $60,000 signing bonus during the 2016 international free agency period.

As much as scouts try to evaluate every prospect to the same standard, it’s innate to question whether one organization can have three players at the same position who belong on top 100 lists. Canario is clearly the rawest of the three with the shortest track record and has thus been pretty easily overshadowed. Still, his bat speed, raw power, and athleticism give him premium potential.

The 20-year-old is an above-average runner with an above-average arm, and his lanky 6’1” frame has space to add weight. As he bulks up he may be forced to a corner, but his offensive profile leaves the door open for a transition to a corner. He’s shown good walk numbers throughout his career but struggles with pitch recognition and has some swing-and-miss red flags.

Canario began 2019 by repeating the Arizona Rookie League, but he quickly proved ready for a new challenge, hitting.395/.435/1.000 with seven home runs in 10 games before he was bumped up to Low-A Salem-Keizer.

The Northwest League tends to be filled with elite teens and recently selected college players. Canario, who didn’t turn 20 until May of this year, was one of the younger players in the league. The increased competition took advantage of his bat to ball struggles and he struck out in nearly 33 percent of his plate appearances. Even with those issues, he still managed to be one of the most productive hitters in the league.

Even after starting the season in rookie ball, he still finished tied for second in the Northwest League in home runs (9) while leading the league in extra-base hits (27).  His 152 wRC+ also ranked among the best in the league.

Granted, Canario obviously benefited from some batted-ball luck with a .419 BABIP. If you adjust his numbers for a more reasonable number (around .315), his triple-slash drops to .238/.311/.477. While far less exceptional, still an impressive showing of power given his age and competition.

It’s hard to find fair comps for Canario at this point in his career. His profile matches someone like Wil Myers or Hunter Renfroe, but Renfroe went to college and Myers was a much more contact-oriented hitter as a younger prospect. Starling Marte may be a similar match, but he is a better athlete than Canario. Randall Grichuk never flashed the walk-rates we’ve seen from Canario, although their hit/power profiles are similar. Triangulate those players and that’s what your envisioning for Canario.

As is the case with so many of the organization’s top hitting prospects, the development of his hit tool will determine whether the MLB team ever sees him flourish.

This season’s assignment would have been an intriguing look at how far along the Giants believed Canario is. An assignment to High-A wasn’t out of the question, but Single-A would’ve been a reasonable next step as well.

He was not invited to the team’s Major League Spring Training but has been at the team’s alternate site in Sacramento. There’s no doubt that Canario will face some severe challenges against the advanced competition. It could be a great opportunity for him to improve his pitch recognition and approach before he takes the next step in his development.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 3 — OF Heliot Ramos

Age: 20
Highest Level: Double-A (Richmond)
Acquired: Draft (2017)
Future-Value Grade: 50+

Since the Giants drafted Heliot Ramos in the first round of the 2017 MLB draft, he’s had the potential to be a perennial All-Star. Just from watching Ramos play, it’s easy to envision him playing running back or strong safety on an SEC football field. It’s that enticing combination of plus speed, power, and arm strength that has him consistently ranked among the top-100 prospects in baseball.

People within the Giants organization remain hopeful he can stick in center field. Given Farhan Zaidi’s background with the Dodgers, a team that has had success with unorthodox fits in center field (e.g. Cody Bellinger), it’s not out of the question. He has very good instincts and gets strong jumps. Others in the scouting community think he’ll lose a step as he completes his maturation, leaving him with more of a prototypical right field profile.

The concern with Ramos has always been his hit tool. He’s struggled to make consistent contact at times and hasn’t always shown a willingness to take walks.

After a strong debut in 2017, he lost some of his prospect luster at Single-A Augusta. While Ramos finished the season with a mediocre .245/.313/.396 line, FanGraphs wRC+ calculations, which take into account the environment of the league, deemed his production to be 4 percent better than the league-average player (who was substantially older than Ramos).

In 2019, Ramos broke out at High-A San Jose. His early-season performance was one of the best in recent history and came alongside increased walks and decreased punch outs. Ramos was promoted alongside Joey Bart and Sean Hjelle to Double-A Richmond. While Bart exploded in the Eastern League, Ramos’ performance failed to keep pace.

His final .242/.321/.421 line with the Flying Squirrels was reminiscent of his year in Augusta. His strikeout rate jumped to a concerning 31.1%, but his walk-rate maintained the gains at High-A. FanGraphs wRC+  was once again much higher on Ramos’ production than the eye-test might reveal, recording his production to be 19 percent better than the league-average player.

The Arizona Fall League was the first time in Ramos’ career where he clearly was overmatched. In 72 plate appearances, he struck out 23 times and posted a meager .512 OPS.

People around the industry rave about his character and work ethic and expect him to do everything in his power to develop his hit tool. Still, whether he stays in center field could have a significant impact on his value. In center, his hit tool won’t need to develop very much for him to have an everyday Joc Pederson-like profile. That said, his offensive ceiling could be prime Yoenis Cespedes.

The San Francisco Giants have been aggressive with Ramos ever since they selected him in the first round of the 2017 draft. He’s younger than this year’s first-round pick Patrick Bailey and is less than a year older than Canario.

Even if Ramos needs another two seasons in the minors after 2020, he would still be just 23 years old when he made his debut. He’s been at the team’s alternate site in Sacramento and has impressed. According to one team source, He’s already launched a home run with a 111 mph exit velocity in one intra-squad matchup.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 2 — C Joey Bart

Age: 23
Highest Level: Double-A (Richmond)
Acquired: Draft (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 50+

I’ve been the low man on Joey Bart since the lead up to the 2018 draft. His profile reminded me of Mike Zunino, and first-round catchers outside of Buster Posey just do not have a very strong track record.

I’ve had to eat some crow on that projection so far.

The important thing with Bart will be tempering expectations. There is only one Buster Posey, and even if Bart approaches his ceiling, he likely won’t make the same impact that Posey has in his career. Bart has a great chance of developing into an All-Star caliber player, but there’s a reason Posey is probably the only active catcher with a strong Hall of Fame case.

Bart entered his junior season at Georgia Tech as an above-average defensive catcher with plus power, but there were substantial questions about his hit tool that left him toward the back of the first-round conversation.

That spring, he doubled his walk rate, lowered his strikeouts, and continued to punish the ball while improving his defensive acumen. That quickly vaulted him into the top-10 pick conversation and he eventually became the Giants clear target at No. 2 overall.

After a strong pro debut, he was sent to High-A to start the 2019 season, where he didn’t exactly excel. He missed time with a fractured hand and took some time to shake off the rust upon returning. The plate discipline improvements he showed in college also didn’t appear to carry over.

Despite his modest production, he was aggressively promoted to Double-A, and he responded by absolutely crushing the ball. In 87 plate appearances following the promotion, he hit a robust .316/.368/.544.  His strikeout rate jumped more than four percentage points to 24.1 percent, but his walk rate jumped along with it to 8 percent.

To make up for the lost plate appearances, he was sent to the Arizona Fall League. Through 10 games, he hit .333/.524/.767 with four home runs and more walks (9) than strikeouts (7), before getting hit on the hand and suffering a fractured thumb. If not for the injury, he would have a 55 future-value grade.

Beyond the offensive production, Bart is already an above-average catcher, and he receives rave reviews for his intangibles. At this point, an outcome like Zunino seems like the floor for Bart, with an outcome as a plus-defensive catcher consistently batting .275 with 25-homer power in sight.

The Giants decision to leave Bart at the team’s alternate site in Sacramento following Posey’s decision to opt-out of the 2020 season was probably somewhat impacted by service time management. But there’s a fair argument to make that Bart deserves more low-pressure opportunities to develop.

In Sacramento, Bart has gotten some work on the infield dirt. Obviously first base is a place to start, but his arm and reaction time might put third base in play as well (although the Giants haven’t mentioned it). Either way, continuing to refine Bart’s approach likely remains the main priority since his swing taps into his power so effortlessly.

SF Giants top prospects: No. 1 — SS Marco Luciano

Age: 18
Highest Level: Low-A (Salem-Keizer)
Acquired: IFA (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 55

Last year I hedged a bit, but it’s hard to argue anymore, Marco Luciano has the highest ceiling of any prospect in baseball.

When Luciano signed for $2.6MM during the 2018 international free-agency period, Giants fans probably thought of players like Angel Villalona, Rafael Rodriguez, and Gustavo Cabrera. They have an understandable skepticism of top international signings. Luciano has the tools to make them forget the long Giants drought ever existed with one generational swing.

His bat speed rivals Canario for tops in the organization, but it comes from a much smoother swing and developed approach. Scouts put 70-80 grades on his raw power. Most expected his body to mature and force him to move from shortstop to a corner, but he’s been more developed defensively than expected too.

In his first taste of professional ball the Giants brought Luciano stateside for what was supposed to be a challenge in the Arizona League. In 47 games, Luciano bashed 10 home runs and a .322/.438/.616 line before earning a surprise promotion to Low-A.

He hit just .212/.316/.333 in nine games following the move up to Salem-Keizer before a hamstring injury ended his season. Still, he walked nearly as much as he struck out alongside a .259 BABIP, which suggests he suffered from some bad luck.

He did all that at the age of 17.

No prospect in franchise history has had that level of success at that age. Frankly, few prospects have ever matched Luciano’s production at his age.

With that being said, Luciano has yet to reach full-season ball and he’s far from a finished product. He has impressed people with his focus on improving defensively. The Giants remain adamant that he can stick at short. Scouts who are low on his defensive prospects at shortstop believe he can be above average at third base, second base, or right field.

One of the biggest disappointments of 2020 for fans is not seeing Luciano in affiliate ball. He probably would have been one of the youngest players at the Single-A level to start the 2020 season. If he had success, he would’ve quickly jumped into conversations as one of the best prospects in baseball.

Ironically, while most prospects lost out without a minor league season on a developmental front, guys like Luciano, who are playing at the team’s alternate site in Sacramento may actually benefit. Luciano is facing far more advanced pitching than he would’ve saw in the minors and is surrounded by borderline big-leaguers and a slew of Giants coaches.

Prospect dedication is such a fickle part of fandom because so much can change so abruptly. That said, Luciano is probably the best prospect the Giants organization has ever had.

If you’re skeptical, I’ll leave you with this Tweet from MLB.com’s Jim Callis: