SF Giants 2020 draft fallout
The savings only matters if it’s reallocated elsewhere. Luckily, the Giants have a plethora of options. While it seems unlikely now, a prep-pitcher like Abel, Jared Kelley, or Nick Bitsko could fall out of round one altogether. With $1 million savings on their first pick, the Giants could offer any of them close to $3 million (in-line with the slot for the 23rd pick in the draft) and come away with two first-round prospects.
Another pair of pitchers to I’d watch are Tanner Witt, Justin Lange, and J.T. Ginn. Witt and Lange seem willing to sign for a late-first round bonus and a $2.25 million bonus (in-line with the 33rd pick) would likely be enough. Ginn is of particular interest because unlike the other fallers, he’s a draft-eligible sophomore in college. He was destined to go in the first 15 picks of the draft (and maybe even top-ten), but had to undergo Tommy John surgery. Obviously, that adds risk, but it seems like he’s willing to sign for around $2.5 million as well.
If none of the top talents fall, there isn’t a need to spend that money all on one pick though. Saving $1 million in pool money early would allow them to offer prospects $1 million with their third, fourth, and fifth-round picks, which should give them their choice of the best remaining prospects.
To me the draft is a series of educated guesses. No matter how great your analytics and scouting departments are, there’s no denying the drastic amounts of error that exist. The reason I lean towards trying to spread money around unless a significantly better prospect falls is to try and mitigate risk. A five-round draft is going to have even larger gaps between the teams that get it right and get it wrong and spreading the investment over more prospects is the best way to manage.
Of course, we’ll all find out what the Giants’ strategy is when their director of amateur scouting Michael Holmes makes their picks over the next couple days.