Giants: Five more potential “bad contract” trade ideas

Houston Astros: OF Josh Reddick

This might be less likely now that the Astros lost ace Gerrit Cole to the Yankees, but Josh Reddick remains a superfluous piece on Houston’s roster. He is one of many corner outfield options, he’s 32 years old, he’s owed $13 million and he will be coming off shoulder surgery.

It’s unclear whether the Astros have any big spending plans this offseason, but offloading Reddick’s salary would free up some spending power. Reddick is set to make a very similar amount to Cozart next season. Unlike Cozart, he has been much healthier and more productive.

Over the past two seasons, Reddick has only produced about 1 WAR per season, but he has been a serviceable player. His 15 home runs a year alongside a .260/.318/.405 line is nothing to brag about, but would have been one of the better lines on the Giants roster.

On the open market, Reddick would likely be worth around $3-5 million, which means his contract is not quite to the level of Cozart’s.

The Giants would be unlikely to the same level of prospect they did in the Cozart deal, but Giants team president Farhan Zaidi might have an affinity for Reddick. Zaidi was part of the front office brass that swung trades to acquire him in Oakland and Los Angeles.

His propensity to draw walks, put the ball in play, and hit for occasional power would give the Giants a reasonably safe option at an outfield corner, which is especially important if they want to move Mike Yastrzemski to center.

Pitching prospects Enoli Paredes and Cionel Perez have long intrigued me and would be two players I would target. Both are close to the major leagues with very good stuff, but struggle with command and consistency. The Giants are starved for pitchers with upside and both have plenty of that. With that said, they each carry their share of risk that might convince the Astros to part with one of them.

Boston Red Sox: SP David Price

David Price is easily the best player in any of these trade scenarios. He would immediately become the best pitcher in the Giants rotation and would help alleviate the seemingly inevitable departure of Madison Bumgarner from both a competitiveness and public relations standpoint.

While health has limited Price over the past three seasons, his numbers are quite comparable to Bumgarner:

• Price: 68 G, 358 IP, 3.75 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 9.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9
• Bumgarner: 72 G, 448.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9

Bumgarner has been sturdier, but he’s also benefited from the National League and Oracle Park. Price has been pitching at home in Fenway Park and against the designated hitter in the American League.

However, Price is also a lot riskier than some of the others on this list.

He turned 34 in August (Bumgarner turned 30) and is owed $96 million over the final three seasons of his seven-year, $217 million contract.

Hoping to shed payroll this offseason, Boston is looking at moving him:

How much money new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom wants to save will impact whether the Giants would be a fit:

If the Red Sox want a prospect return, they could pick up a sizable portion of his contract and still dip below the luxury tax threshold. However, both outfielder Andrew Benintendi and corner infielder Bobby Dalbec have been floated as potential enticements Boston could package with Price if they want to move more of his money.

Dalbec is a right-handed hitter with plus power, but big swing and miss to his game. An average defensive third baseman, he’s blocked by Rafael Devers. The Giants will soon be looking to replace Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria at the infield corners, and Dalbec’s right-handed power would play in Oracle Park.

Benintendi is 25 with a similar skill set to a young Josh Reddick. He has a very good approach, is solid defensively, and has good power.

He does not appear to have an elite ceiling, but there’s nothing wrong with finding a solid everyday player. Paired with Price, the Giants could gain two immediate upgrades for essentially nothing but flexing their ability to spend.

San Diego Padres: OF Wil Myers

Wil Myers has been one of the biggest ticking time bomb contracts in baseball over the past couple seasons. Much like the Marlins when they signed Giancarlo Stanton to his mammoth extension, the Padres signed Wil Myers to a six-year, $83 million extension with a massive escalating scale.

Myers made just $8 million in base salary over the past three seasons, but starting in 2020, his base salary jumps to $20 million a year for the next three seasons.

As such, the Padres are motivated to move him as they continue to push toward contention:

With one of the best farm systems in baseball, San Diego has the prospects to attach to Myers to get a team like the Giants to take him. They just have to be willing to pay a premium in assets.

Myers is still only 29, plays passable defense in the outfield, and walks at a decent clip, but he has simply been unable to develop into the player many thought he would become.  After a 30-homer season in 2017, Myers has hit just 29 home runs in the two seasons since and he has been roughly a league-average hitter in the process.

Much like Reddick, Myers projects somewhere around a 1 WAR player as a full-time player. Even a fairly favorable projection for Myers still leaves his contract nearly $45 million underwater.

According to FanGraphs’ prospect valuation system, the Padres would need to attach one of the 20 best prospects in baseball to Myers to offset that value.

That’s not going to happen.

If they were willing to move someone like Luis Patino or MacKenzie Gore, someone would have already acquired them. Still, even after moving Xavier Edwards and Luis Urias in trades, San Diego has enough pieces to entice the Giants while still trading from system depth.

Giants brass would jump all over the chance to acquire infielders Hudson Potts and CJ Abrams. If the Giants offered San Diego reliever Tony Watson and their pick of Andrew Suarez or Dereck Rodriguez, I’m inclined to think the Padres might pull the trigger.

Abrams was selected with the No. 6 overall pick in 2019 and he already ranks among the top 50 prospects in baseball. He has 80-grade speed with potential plus raw-power. Currently a shortstop, his future may be in center field.

Potts is a consensus top 10 prospect in the Padres system. He’s a powerful big-bodied corner bat that has the ceiling to be an above-average everyday third baseman. Questions surrounding his hit tool and athleticism give him some Quad-A risk, but there’s enough room for upside. He’s blocked by Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer at the infield corners.

Abrams has star potential, but he’s probably at least three seasons away from reaching the majors. Furthermore, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Taylor Trammell seem to rank ahead of him up the middle. If San Diego wants to compete now, unloading Myers’ contract would allow them more flexibility on the free-agent market.

While both teams may be hesitant to make a move with a division foe, the Giants may be the only team willing to take on Myers’ massive commitment.

New York Mets: IF Jed Lowrie, OF Yoenis Cespedes

Earlier this offseason, I proposed a blockbuster trade that would give the Mets their replacement for Zack Wheeler, the Rangers a new first baseman, and the Giants some young talent at the cost of taking on Yoenis Cespedes‘ contract

That idea still stands, but New York has reportedly been shopping another bad contract over the past few days:

The Mets signed Jed Lowrie to a two-year, $20 million last offseason, but he managed just seven at-bats in his first season in New York while dealing with injuries. Meanwhile, a number of younger players emerged in his absence.

While his situation is similar to Cozart’s in that both are coming off an injury-plagued 2019, Lowrie was an All-Star the last time he played everyday. The question is whether Lowrie, who will turn 36 in April, can be expected to do that again.

A switch-hitter capable of playing of playing all over the infield, Lowrie has been a very good rotational piece over his 12-year career. If healthy, he could be a huge upgrade for the Giants at second base.

You might be worried about an overcrowded infield with Brandon Crawford, Zack Cozart, Evan Longoria, and Brandon Belt already on the team before we even talk about prospect Mauricio Dubon. However, the focus of these trades is on acquiring prospects.

It’s also worth noting that Longoria could become an intriguing trade target for teams that miss out on bigger fish like Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson in free agency.

Outfielder Brandon Nimmo has been the center of trade talks surrounding Lowrie and Pirates center fielder Starling Marte. He would be a fantastic fit for the Giants, but I don’t see the Mets moving him in a contract dump unless it is part of an elaborate three-team trade with Pittsburgh that brings Marte to New York.

I do think any of the pieces I mentioned in my Cespedes proposal (Dominic Smith, Shervyen Newton, or Franklyn Kilome) do make sense.

Kilome, who is a low-floor, high-ceiling pitching prospect returning from Tommy John surgery, might be the best fit.

New York Yankees: SP J.A. Happ

This is probably the least sexy of any of these proposals.

J.A. Happ is a solid southpaw starter on a contract the Yankees are hoping to trade. He has been incredibly healthy over his career, but took a big step back in terms of productivity last season with a 4.91 ERA in 161.1 innings.

After signing Gerrit Cole and with Luis Severino expected to be fully healthy, the Yankees have arguably the best rotation in baseball, and Happ is now expendable.

The urgency to move Happ stems from his $17 million salary and ownership’s desire to get below the luxury tax threshold. On the open market, Happ could probably get around $8-12 million on a one-year deal, leaving the Yankees with a $5-9 million shortfall they have to make up in assets.

The first name that comes to mind for many is Clint Frazier, but if the Yankees have not moved the outfielder by now, I would be surprised to see them move him now.

Estevan Florial has seen his prospect status lose some of its luster over the past year, and I wonder if the team is now more likely to move Florial than Frazier.

In the end, both may be more than the Yankees are willing to give up to unload Happ.

I thought Clarke Schmidt made sense for the Giants to target in a Madison Bumgarner trade at the deadline, and he still makes sense as a prospect without high-end upside who is relatively close to the majors.

The Giants may also be willing to settle for more high-variance prospects at the lower levels like Maikol Escotto or Antonio Gomez. If the Giants continue targeting players who were recently drafted, Anthony Volpe also makes sense.

The reality of the situation is that it takes two teams to make a deal. We know that Zaidi is willing. Now who will be his next trade partner?