Giants: Three free-agent starting pitchers with ties to Farhan Zaidi
As MLB free agency gets underway, the Giants will likely be in the market for at least one starting pitcher, and perhaps multiple arms.
Beyond Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, the San Francisco Giants have few certainties in their starting rotation. Even in the case of Cueto, it’s unclear how big of a workload he can assume in 2020 in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.
They will likely need to go outside of the organization to fix this.
Tyler Beede and Logan Webb sit behind Samardzija and Cueto on the depth chart. Both finished the season on a positive note, but there are no assurances that momentum will carry over into 2020.
With this being said, the Giants will need to bolster the rotation either through trades or free agency. As an organization, they are still thin on trade assets, so free agency seems like the most likely route.
The Giants have already started building up their depth by claiming Tyler Anderson and Trevor Oaks off waivers from the Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals, respectively. However, given how team president Farhan Zaidi uses the back-end of the 40-man roster, both pitchers may not be with the organization for long.
The top-end of the free-agent market for starting pitchers includes Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, and Zack Wheeler. The Giants will have the payroll flexibility to add players of that caliber, but more than likely, they will seek lower-cost alternatives without multi-year commitments.
This will give the Giants flexibility to pursue upgrades in other areas of the roster, and they can try to hoard potential trade deadline assets. Zaidi did this when he signed Drew Pomeranz, eventually flipping him to the Milwaukee Brewers for a potential long-term piece in Mauricio Dubon.
If Zaidi has shown anything in his brief tenure as the San Francisco Giants team president, it is that he likes bringing in players with which he has firsthand experience. Drew Pomeranz, Donovan Solano, Trevor Oaks, and Breyvic Valera are just a few examples. His connections to the past could be an indicator of the type of rotation arm the team may target this winter.
He has firsthand experience with a number of free-agent pitchers or has previously been connected to them as targets. Three names that stand out from that list are Tanner Roark, Brett Anderson, and Gio Gonzalez, and that’s the trio we’ll focus on here.
Giants free-agent target: RHP Tanner Roark
Tanner Roark is set to test free agency for the first time in his career, and he fits the type of pitcher the Giants will likely pursue in free agency.
Roark began the 2019 season with the Cincinnati Reds before he was moved to the Oakland Athletics to help in their playoff push.
However, he had been connected to the Bay Area before being dealt to Oakland:
The right-hander had been rumored as a potential Giants target as soon as Zaidi took charge. Now that Roark is a free agent, it would not be surprising to see if the Giants reignite their pursuit.
The 33-year-old is coming off of his third straight season of posting an ERA north of 4.0, so he has not been the same type of pitcher he was when he finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young voting by producing a 2.83 ERA across 210 innings in 2016.
However, the longtime Washington Nationals pitcher is a workhorse. He has made over 30 starts in five of the last six seasons, and he averaged 157 innings per year throughout his career.
Given the question marks the Giants face in their rotation, there is value in bringing in a pitcher who is capable of assuming a heavy workload.
Unlike Gerrit Cole or Zack Wheeler, Roark does not pile up the strikeout numbers.
However, he is adept at avoiding hard contact and has a healthy 44 percent ground ball rate. Generating ground balls is an effective way in recording outs, especially since the Giants boast one of the better defensive infields in baseball:
Roark offers plenty of value to prospective teams, but he is not expected to command a lucrative contract this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors predicted he will sign two years and $18 million contract.
With where the Giants are at in the competitive cycle, signing a pitcher like Roark gives them a reliable arm in the rotation without much long-term risk. Since the Giants showed interest last offseason, it would not be surprising to see them check in again on him.
Giants free-agent target: LHP Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson and Giants team president Farhan Zaidi have a long history together.
Zaidi was the Oakland Athletics assistant general manager when Anderson came up with the Athletics. Then, as the Los Angeles Dodgers general manager, Zaidi brought Anderson in as a free agent in 2015. Those long-standing ties could play a role this offseason.
After struggling to the tune of a 7.29 ERA between 2016 and 2017 with stops in Los Angeles, Toronto, and Chicago, Anderson rediscovered himself after returning to Oakland in 2018.
Over the past two seasons, the southpaw has posted a 4.07 ERA with 137 strikeouts across 256.1 innings. He has never accumulated high strikeout totals, but this is one area that has been on a gradual decline as his career has evolved.
Similar to Roark, the 31-year-old relies on avoiding hard contact. In comparison to Roark, Anderson is even more of a ground ball machine with a 56.8 percent ground ball rate for his career.
The left-hander is not much of an innings-eater, though.
In 2019, Anderson piled up 176 innings in 31 starts. While that innings total is good in today’s game where the 200-inning pitcher is becoming a thing of the past, it only comes out to 5.2 innings per start.
His career renaissance with the Athletics could be due in part to usage. If he is averaging 5.2 innings per start, then his performance is likely being optimized by not exposing him to a third turn through the lineup.
With the game trending more toward strikeout-heavy pitchers, Anderson’s skill set could fly under the radar. That might present an opportunity for Zaidi to revisit their long-standing relationship yet again.
Giants free-agent target: LHP Gio Gonzalez
A free agent for the first time last winter as a 33-year-old, Gio Gonzalez did not find the type of contract he was seeking.
In fact, he had to wait until the end of spring training to sign a minor league pact with the New York Yankees. His Yankees tenure would be short-lived as he was not promoted to the big league roster prior to his opt-out clause, which he then exercised.
That proved to be a good opportunity for the Milwaukee Brewers and they quickly signed Gonzalez to return to the city where he finished his 2018 season.
Similar to Anderson, Zaidi has firsthand experience with Gonzalez dating back to his days as an assistant general manager in Oakland. Gonzalez last pitched for the Athletics in 2011, but the connection remains.
The longtime Washington Nationals starter continues to post solid numbers, despite getting further into his 30s. Throughout his career, Gonzalez has recorded a 3.68 ERA and 1,826 strikeouts across 1,901.1 innings.
That career ERA is not too different from the 3.50 ERA he generated over 87.1 innings as a member of the Brewers rotation in 2019.
Unlike Roark or Anderson, Gonzalez is still capable of avoiding contact altogether as he posted a 21.3 percent strikeout rate against a 10.1 percent walk rate last season. Compared to the other two pitchers we’ve highlighted, he relies less on pitching to contact and more on a modest strikeout total.
As Gonzalez heads into his age 34-season, the free-agent market seems to be flooded with pitchers of his caliber. That’s not great news for Gonzalez, but it could be an opportunity for Zaidi to add a reliable, mid-rotation arm without extinguishing much of the payroll flexibility that has built up.
Both Anderson and Gonzalez were merely honorable mentions in the Top 50 Free Agent Predictions piece from MLB Trade Rumors, so the expectation is that neither one will command a significant contract.
There are plenty of other pitchers who would address the San Francisco Giants need for rotational help, but given Zaidi’s link to Roark, Anderson, and Gonzalez, it would not be surprising to see the Giants re-establish that connection with any of the three.