San Francisco Giants: A way-too-early 2020 Opening Day roster prediction

Before another busy MLB offseason begins, let’s take a crack at predicting what the San Francisco Giants roster will look like on Opening Day in 2020.

Who doesn’t love a good San Francisco Giants roster hypothetical?

Predicting a team’s Opening Day roster can be tricky at the start of spring training, and borderline impossible when it’s still October and there’s a whole offseason still to come.

That’s not going to stop me, though.

Ahead I’ve tried my hand at predicting what the 25-man roster will look like when the 2020 season begins, complete with any proposed free-agent signings and trades I foresee the team making during the offseason.

If nothing else, this will be a fun article to look back on five months from now when we’re getting ready for the start of the new season.

While some serious thought went into this article, the end goal was for it to be a fun read and to hopefully spark some good discussion on how the offseason might play out. As such, I look forward to hearing your own ideas for how the roster should be constructed.

As far as roster parameters, rosters will expand to 26 players starting next season, with a maximum of 13 pitchers allowed on the active roster, so we went with an even split of 13 pitchers and 13 position players.

And while there are several hypothetical newcomers in the article that follows, spending was kept within reason. After all, it’s unlikely we will see an offseason spending spree with the front office working hard to retool the roster and get younger.

So without further ado, let’s dive right into my way-too-early Opening Day roster predictions for the San Francisco Giants.

San Francisco Giants starting lineup: This collection of hitters could easily improve on the club’s 2019 offensive numbers.

C Buster Posey: $22.2 million

Posey produced a career-low 84 OPS+ with just seven home runs and 38 RBI in 2019. He’s signed for two more years, so he’s not going anywhere, though the impending arrival of Joey Bart could eventually push him to first base. Can he bounce back?

1B Chris Shaw: $560,000

Shaw showed some real signs of growth in 2019, responding well to an initial assignment to Double-A and raising his walk rate from 5.0 to 7.9 percent while hitting .294/.360/.559 with 28 home runs and 94 RBI. It’s make-or-break time for the 26-year-old, and giving him a starting gig would be a nice show of confidence. If he flops, there are plenty of Luke Voit and Christian Walker types just waiting for a chance at the Triple-A level the front office could target in a low-cost trade.

2B Mauricio Dubon: $560,000

Dubon hit .279/.312/.442 with five doubles and four home runs in 28 games with the Giants after he was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline. The 25-year-old may ultimately be more floor than ceiling, but he flashed enough potential on both sides of the ball to earn an extended look.

SS Brandon Crawford: $15.2 million

For better or worse, the Giants are stuck with the final two years and $30.4 million on Crawford’s contract. He’ll start the season as the everyday shortstop, but he could quickly lose playing time to Donovan Solano if he turns in another offensive clunker. An OPS+ of 75 simply doesn’t cut it in today’s game, regardless of defensive ability.

3B Evan Longoria: $15 million

Longoria quietly had a pretty good season in 2019, posting a 102 OPS+ with 20 home runs. He was on fire before suffering a foot injury, or his numbers might have looked even better. He’s not the player he once was, but after a 2.4 WAR season, he’s by no means a weak link.

LF Mike Yastrzemski: $560,000

What more could you ask of a player who was acquired in an under-the-radar swap of minor leaguers? Yaz posted a 123 OPS+ with 22 doubles and 21 home runs as a 27-year-old rookie, and while his age raises some questions about how long he’ll be a key contributor, he’s earned a starting gig in 2020.

CF Cameron Maybin: $5 million (projected signing)

A two-year, $10 million deal seems reasonable for Maybin after his resurgent season with the New York Yankees. The 32-year-old hit .285/.364/.494 with 17 doubles and a career-high 11 home runs in 82 games this past season. Other teams might be willing to offer a bit more money, but the Giants would offer an opportunity to be an everyday player.

RF Alex Dickerson: $1.2 million

He’ll likely need a platoon partner, and the Giants would be wise to have a contingency plan in place given his injury history, but Dickerson earned a starting spot when he carried the offense in July. The 29-year-old hit .290/.341/.529 for a 131 OPS+ in 171 plate appearances with the Giants in 2019.

Where did they go?

Notably absent from this list are first baseman Brandon Belt and center fielder Kevin Pillar. We’ll get to Belt a bit later, as I’ve cooked up a trade idea that sends him to the Kansas City Royals. As for Pillar, he’s simply not worth his projected $9.7 million arbitration salary. His counting numbers were nice, but a sub-.300 on-base percentage just doesn’t cut it, especially at that price.

San Francisco Giants bench: These guys could see significant action, despite filling backup roles.

C Stephen Vogt: $3 million (projected re-signing)

If a $3 million projected salary seems light for Vogt, consider that Brian McCann rejoined the Atlanta Braves on a one-year, $2 million deal last winter. For the sake of the catcher position and the clubhouse, re-signing Vogt should be a priority.

IF Donovan Solano: $1.2 million

One of the biggest surprises of 2019, Solano signed a minor league deal and hit .330/.360/.456 with 18 extra-base hits in 228 plate appearances in his first MLB action since 2016. He’ll serve as an insurance policy for Dubon and could push Crawford for more significant playing time.

IF/OF Brock Holt: $4.5 million (projected signing)

Team president Farhan Zaidi values versatility, and Holt is one of the most versatile players in baseball. The 31-year-old hit .297/.369/.402 for a 101 OPS+ in 295 plate appearances while playing six different positions in 2019. A two-year, $9 million deal would be money well spent.

IF/OF Austin Slater: $560,000

Slater was quietly having a terrific season before a brutal final month cratered his stats. The 26-year-old hit .281/.396/.529 with 17 extra-base hits in 144 plate appearances in July and August, before going 6-for-47 (.128 BA) with 19 strikeouts in 48 plate appearances in September. He checks the versatile box and has some offensive upside, so he’ll be given every chance.

OF Joey Rickard: $1.1 million

ATF contributor Jeff Young made a compelling case for Rickard to serve as the right-handed-hitting platoon partner to the lefty-swinging Dickerson, and I’m sold. There are a lot of alternatives down on the farm if this decision goes sideways.

San Francisco Giants bullpen: There’s a lot of work to do rebuilding the relief corps.

LR Dereck Rodriguez: $560,000

After an out-of-nowhere breakout season in 2018, D-Rod took several steps back this past season. He’ll be 28 years old next June, so there’s not much to be gained by sending him to the minors, so if he doesn’t win the No. 5 starter job look for him to snag a long-relief role.

MR Sam Coonrod: $560,000

One of a handful of relievers who benefitted from the opportunities presented by the team’s deadline moves, Coonrod posted a 3.58 ERA in 33 appearances in his rookie season. It would be nice to see him miss more bats (6.5 K/9) and limit the walks (4.9 BB/9), but he showed enough to earn a spot.

MR Jandel Gustave: $560,000

Another bullpen arm who emerged from the minors in the second half, Gustave had a 2.96 ERA with four holds and one save in 23 appearances in his first season with the Giants. The 27-year-old will need to improve on his 5.2 K/9, but after fanning batters at an 8.9 K/9 rate in the minors, that’s something he’s capable of doing.

MR Trevor Gott: $560,000

Plucked from the waiver wire last offseason, Gott would be the last man standing from last year’s Opening Day bullpen if things play out as projected here. He pitched extremely well for most of the season before a rocky August ballooned his ERA and he finished the year on the injured list with a sprained elbow.

MR Tyler Rogers (L): $560,000

A 10th-round pick in 2013, Rogers spent seven seasons in the minors before finally getting his shot in 2019. He made the most of the opportunity, using his funky submarine delivery to post a 1.02 ERA and a 16-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio with five holds in 17 appearances. He looks like a lock for at least a middle relief role, and he could end up filling the Tony Watson void.

SU Shaun Anderson: $560,000

A reliever during his time at the University of Florida, Anderson showed some intriguing late-inning potential down the stretch after moving out of the starting rotation. He had a 3.55 ERA and 9.9 K/9 with two saves and one hold in his first 11 appearances out of the bullpen before allowing four earned runs in two-thirds of an inning in his final outing of the season to skew his numbers.

SU Arodys Vizcaino: $2 million (projected signing)

Last month, I wrote an article on why Vizcaino might be the perfect buy-low bullpen target for the Giants this offseason. Prior to dealing with shoulder issues in 2019, he converted 49 of 59 save chances while posting a 2.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 in 180 appearances during the four-year span from 2015 to 2018. A one-year, $2 million deal with incentives for games finished makes sense for both sides.

CL Dellin Betances: $10 million (projected signing)

If Betances winds up having to settle for a one-year, prove-it deal this offseason, the Giants should pounce. I outlined his impressive tenure with the New York Yankees in a recent article and touched on the risk of signing him on the heels of a season where he made just one appearance and saw his season end in September with a partially torn Achilles tendon. High-risk, high-reward. If he signs a one-year deal and bounces back, he could be the prize of the trade deadline.

So there you have it, my way-too-early prediction for the San Francisco Giants roster on Opening Day.

With $560,000 set as the minimum salary and arbitration projections borrowed from MLB Trade Rumors, the payroll for those 25 players comes out to be just shy of $140 million. It would represent a payroll cut, but given the current position of the team, it’s a logical approach while the farm system continues to develop.

We’ll do plenty more of these projections as the offseason progresses and things start to better take shape, but consider this a baseline for a busy winter to come.