San Francisco Giants: Final 2019 Top 10 Prospects

With the regular season now over and a busy offseason fast approaching, we break down the top 10 prospects in an improved San Francisco Giants farm system.

It’s time to unveil the 10 best prospects in the San Francisco Giants farm system in our final top 30 prospects update of the year.

If you missed the No. 30 to No. 21 prospects, you can check those out here. The No. 20 to No. 11 prospects can be found here.

The farm system has improved by leaps and bounds in the past year. Surprisingly, it didn’t take a massive sell-off from president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to do it. Instead, it seems that a revamped player development staff led to breakout seasons for prospects up and down the organization.

Entering 2019, most outlets considered the San Francisco Giants to have one of the five worst collections of prospects in baseball. Now they are a consensus mid-tier system.

While the system is hitter-heavy, guys like Seth Corry and Tristan Beck are capable of shooting up prospect rankings as well.

Prospects are grouped by their grades on the scouting 20-80 grade scale. For those not familiar with the scale, check out this primer. Here’s a quick rundown for reference:

80: Top 5 player in baseball (8+ WAR per season at peak)
70: Top 10 player in the baseball (5-8 WAR)
60: All-Star (3.5-5 WAR)
55: Above-average everyday player (2.5-3.5 WAR)
50: Everyday player (1.5-2.5 WAR)
45: Platoon player (0.5-1.5 WAR)
40: MLB backup (0.2-0.5 WAR)
35: Quad-A player (0-0.2 WAR)
30: Triple-A player
20: Organizational player

Two important notes:

1. The grades next to the players are current expected values, meaning you can think of those grades as the 50% outcome. Obviously, most prospects have a wide range of potential outcomes so those grades are an attempt to quantify the average expected outcome.

2. Some players will have grades with + signs next to them (40+, 45+, etc.). This has to do with the way player grades work. Probably 70-90% of top 30 prospects in each organization fall somewhere from the 40-50 grades. So it can get difficult to differentiate prospect No. 11 from No. 23. Part of this is on purpose, but some 40-grade players are closer to moving up to a 45-grade than others. Hence, the plus. A strong half from a 45+ player will almost definitely jump them up to a 50 grade. Same with a 40+ player going to 45. You get the idea.

With that out of the way, let’s kick things off for the final installment of the Giants prospect rankings.

10. 3B Luis Toribio

Age: 19
Acquired: IFA (2017)
Future Value: 45
Stock: +7

In discussing lower-level San Francisco Giants prospects with a number of industry sources, Luis Toribio consistently received rave reviews, especially from those within the organization.

He shows the maturity of a player plucked from the college ranks both physically and emotionally, and one source went as far as to say: “He already carries himself like a big leaguer.”

Toribio received a $300,000 signing bonus in the 2017 international signing period and he remains the gem of the class. A strong debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 put him on people’s radar, but scouts generally like to see stateside production before drawing any conclusions.

In the DSL, he hit 10 home runs in just 64 games and tallied nearly as many walks (51) as strikeouts (62). However, walk rates in the DSL can sometimes be deceiving. This season, in his stateside debut, he maintained that impressive discipline with 47 walks in 54 games.

One demerit on Toribio’s prospect status is that he lacks the projection standard for someone his age. His 6’1” frame appears already maxed out. He’s also a below-average runner, but his soft hands and strong arm project him as an above-average defender at the hot corner. Reports have suggested the team has had internal conversations about trying him at second base for greater flexibility.

While no tool outside of his strike-zone awareness project as plus, a combination of above-average hit and power tools can still be effective.

The early results stateside were positive, as he hit .296/.433/.454 between rookie ball and Low-A Salem-Keizer. While effective, that production does seem to mirror similar problems Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds showed as a prospect in the Giants system.

Both Reynolds and Toribio shared impeccable patience and raw power that seemed to more consistently result in doubles than home runs. The key difference is Reynolds was an above-average athlete with the ability to play center field. Limited to a corner, Toribio will have to turn more doubles into home runs to be an average everyday player.

For now, Toribio has the ceiling of an above-average everyday player, with a high enough floor that he’s a safe bet to at least develop into a solid bench bat or platoon option if he falls short of that ceiling.

9. 1B Logan Wyatt

Age: 21
Acquired: 2019 draft (2nd round)
Future Value: 45 (grade up)
Stock: +2

In the lead up to the 2019 MLB Draft, I was on the low side of Logan Wyatt as a prospect. However, once the San Francisco Giants selected the first baseman out of the University of Louisville, I began looking deeper at the track record of collegiate first baseman as prospects and I started to notice a trend. The best MLB first basemen selected out of college had profiles a lot more like Wyatt than you might expect.

Check out the college statistics of Max Muncy and Rhys Hoskins. While power is now their carrying tool, that wasn’t the case at all in college. Even Paul Goldschmidt showed good power, but nothing to make one think he would emerge as one of the best power hitters in the sport.

One trend connects all these players. While power output varied, everyone walked more than they struck out. It seems that the key was a foundation of a strong plate discipline. Almost all drafted players with first baseman profiles have powerful frames. Given the recent developments in swing science, players have been able to make adjustments to maximize their strength.

Wyatt had arguably the best plate discipline in college baseball. Over his sophomore and junior seasons, he walked 131 times in 608 plate appearances and struck out just 84 times. His hit tool remains ahead of his power tool, and that showed at Louisville, in the Cape Cod League, and in his pro debut.

At the Cape last summer, Wyatt led the league in walks (29) while still managing to avoid strikeouts (24) over 168 plate appearances, and he held a solid .305/.458/.438 line.

There’s potential for more, though. Even his manager at Louisville admitted he had asked Wyatt to be “greedier” at the plate. He has 50-55 grade raw power and if a swing adjustment could tap into more of that power while he maintains his plate discipline, it could make for an elite first baseman.

Giants scouting director Michael Holmes said the organization believes Wyatt has the necessary athleticism to be playable as a corner outfielder, but that remains an open question. While he’s a smooth athlete with soft hands and a solid arm that makes him an above-average first baseman, his 30-grade speed limits how much ground he can cover.

As is, Wyatt could probably reach the majors relatively quickly as an on-base machine with doubles power. More likely, they will want him to make adjustments to generate more power, and that will likely come with some growing pains.

Still, he already reached Single-A Augusta in his pro debut, and he will likely start 2020 at High-A San Jose alongside first-round selection Hunter Bishop.

8. SS Mauricio Dubon

Age: 25
Acquired: Trade (2019, via MIL)
Future Value: 45
Stock: Unranked

After signing out of high school for a $75,000 signing bonus by the Boston Red Sox as a 26th-round pick in 2013, Mauricio Dubon quickly took to pro ball.

He immediately showed great baseball instincts at the plate and in the field, and as his prospect status began to rise, he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers alongside Travis Shaw for Tyler Thornburg.

Dubon has never walked a great deal, but he makes consistent contact. His lanky frame never seemed capable of generating much beyond doubles power, but once Triple-A adopted the juiced MLB balls, Dubon began generating extra-base hits.

Through 27 games with Milwaukee’s Triple-A affiliate in 2018, Dubon was slugging .574 with 15 extra-base hits. Then he tore his ACL during a rundown and lost the rest of his season to surgery and rehab. At the same time, Milwaukee’s first-round pick Keston Hiura skyrocketed through their system and by the time Dubon returned from his injury, Hiura had surpassed him as next in line for a spot in Milwaukee’s infield.

Early in the 2019 season, Dubon received a brief promotion, becoming the first Honduran-born MLB player in the MLB history in the process. However, he was demoted to Triple-A after just a couple of appearances.

At the trade deadline, the Brewers decided to trade from their middle infield surplus to acquire some bullpen help. The San Francisco Giants packaged Ray Black and Drew Pomeranz to bring Dubon into their system.

Dubon continued his strong play at Triple-A, and by the start of September, he was a mainstay in San Francisco’s starting lineup. He finished the season just a couple dozen plate appearances shy of losing his rookie eligibility, producing a solid .267/.302/.436 line along the way.

Advanced metrics were skeptical of a large amount of Dubon’s success. Especially his power output. According to Baseball Savant, the quality of contact Dubon made was expected to produce a .245/.280/.347 line, stats troublingly reminiscent of Johnnie LeMaster.

The offensive production remains the question because his glovework is so advanced. He’s always had incredibly soft hands and used his above-average athleticism well to cover a lot of ground at shortstop or second base. His arm is weak compared to current Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford, but it’s average for the position.

At worst, his defense and contact ability will make him a valuable utility player in the mold of Joaquin Arias. While most remain skeptical of the power output, if he can either increase his walk rate or maintain his power spike, he could be a solid starting shortstop for the San Francisco Giants.

7. RHP Logan Webb

Age: 22
Acquired: 2014 draft (4th round)
Future Value: 45+
Stock: -1

When Logan Webb has pitched as a pro, he’s consistently been one of the best pitching prospects in the San Francisco Giants system. Unfortunately, he’s logged just 342 innings since being selected in the fourth round of the 2014 draft.

Selected and signed out of Rocklin, California, his development was first stalled by Tommy John surgery in 2016. He re-emerged on prospect radars in 2018 when he began the season at High-A San Jose by striking out a batter an inning and holding opponents to a 1.82 ERA. He then held his own in a late promotion to Double-A.

This season, back at Double-A, he looked to be playing himself into another promotion before his development was stalled again. This time, he was slapped with an 80-game PED suspension. Webb adamantly maintains his innocence, but he still lost crucial time against advanced hitters.

He pitched effectively upon returning to earn a promotion to Triple-A and made just one start in the Pacific Coast League before making his MLB debut on August 17.

Like Mauricio Dubon, Webb was just shy of losing his rookie/prospect eligibility when the season ended. While his 5.22 ERA at the MLB level wasn’t pretty, his peripherals left plenty of room for excitement. His 4.12 FIP and 3.89 xFIP were both very good, especially when you take into account that he won’t be 23 until December.

Webb played quarterback in high school and that above-average athleticism carries over on the mound. Originally, Webb was primarily a two-pitch, fastball-slider pitcher. However, he threw his changeup over 20 percent of the time in the bigs this year. When opponents connected, they generally squared up the changeup, but it also generated a strong 30.9 percent whiff-rate.

His slider remains his best pitch, generating a 35.9 percent whiff-rate and limiting MLB hitters to a .158 average and identical slugging percentage.

Webb has long been projected for a high-leverage relief role with a dominant two-pitch mix, but there’s a chance he can be an effective back-of-the-rotation starter even if the changeup is fringy at best. If the changeup develops further, he has the potential to be a No. 3 starter.

I first compared Webb to a young Jeff Samardzija in my midseason prospect rankings and I stand by that assessment now. The Shark began his career shifting between the rotation and bullpen and he’s had his fair share of ups and downs as the league has adjusted to him and he’s had to respond. Webb seems destined to follow a similar path.

Given the clear questions in the San Francisco Giants rotation, Webb will almost certainly be on the MLB roster in some capacity on Opening Day. Whether it’s as a traditional starter, a multi-inning bridge pitcher, or a reliever will depend on his development and the team’s offseason moves.

5. LHP Seth Corry

Age: 20
Acquired: 2017 draft (3rd round)
Future Value: 50  (two grades up)
Stock: +5

The previous scouting regime selected a trio of high school prospects at the top of the 2017 draft. All three—Heliot Ramos, Jacob Gonzalez, and Seth Corry—stalled during the 2018 season and some became concerned that the class could be a catastrophic bust.

While Gonzalez continued to struggle, both Corry and Ramos had career years.

As a prep pitcher in Utah, Corry drew comparisons to a young Matt Moore. Back then, he was a two-pitch pitcher who worked off a 90-92 mph fastball and a curveball with advanced feel that projected as a plus pitch. He’s since added a changeup.

Many scouts have expressed skepticism in the pitch, but according to one industry source, it generated a whiff rate of over 46 percent in 2019. That kind of effectiveness suggests it has the potential to be another above-average pitch. His fastball still sits in the low 90s, but it has an above-average spin rate and touches 95 mph occasionally. His curveball remains his best pitch, averaging over 2,600 rpms and generating whiffs on over 50 percent of swings this season.

From the onset of his pro career, Corry has missed bats, striking out roughly a batter an inning at each level. However, he tended to walk roughly a batter an inning as well.

This year, in his first full-season assignment, Corry got off to a start reminiscent of Kyle Crick’s minor league career. Into June, Corry had a great 2.58 ERA and accrued 69 strikeouts in just 45.1 innings, but he had also issued 36 walks. Then, according to one source with the team, he made a mechanical adjustment that allowed him to take off.

From the start of July to the end of the season, Corry made 11 starts. During that span, he posted a 0.99 ERA in 63.2 innings, striking out 86 while allowing just 16 free passes.

Corry has always had a better handle on his offspeed pitches than his fastball, which made me bullish on his ability to eventually control all of his pitches. Still, there is a marked difference between control and command. Other prospects like Shaun Anderson and Conner Menez saw that first hand in their first taste of the majors.

Next season will be pivotal in Corry’s progress. Maintaining his gains in control and taking another step forward with the development of his changeup could have him on top 100 prospect lists by midseason. However, any regression would call his 2019 performance into question

All things considered, his three-pitch repertoire gives him the potential to be a strong middle-of-the-rotation starter, and he could begin 2020 at High-A.

4. OF Alexander Canario

Age: 19
Acquired: IFA (2016)
Future Value: 50 (grade up)
Stock: +1

I’ve been saying for a good part of the 2019 season that if the San Francisco Giants organization didn’t also have Heliot Ramos and Hunter Bishop in it, Alexander Canario would be a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball.

As much as scouts try to evaluate every prospect to the same standard, it’s innate to question whether one organization can have three players at the same position who belong on top 100 lists. Canario is clearly the rawest of the three and has thus been pretty easily overshadowed. Still, his bat speed, raw power, and potential to stick in center field give him star potential.

The 19-year-old is an above-average runner with an above-average arm, and his lanky 6’1” frame has space to add weight. As he bulks up he may be forced to a corner spot, but his offensive profile makes a transition to right field reasonable. He’s shown good plate discipline throughout his career, but can still struggle to make contact, especially against offspeed pitches.

Canario began 2019 by repeating the Arizona Rookie League, but he quickly proved ready for a new challenge, hitting.395/.435/1.000 with seven home runs in 10 games before he was bumped up to Low-A Salem-Keizer.

That level tends to be filled with elite teens and recently selected college players. Canario, who won’t turn 20 until May, was one of the younger players in the league. The increased competition exemplified his bat to ball struggles, as he struck out in nearly 33 percent of his plate appearances.

However, he still managed to be one of the most productive hitters in the league.

Even after starting the season in rookie ball, he still finished tied for second in the Northwest League in home runs (9) while leading the league in extra-base hits (27).  His 152 wRC+ also ranked among the best in the league.

It’s hard to find fair comps for Canario at this point in his career. His profile matches someone like Wil Myers or Hunter Renfroe, but Renfroe went to college and Myers was a much more contact-oriented hitter as a younger prospect. Starling Marte may be a similar match, but he is a better athlete than Canario. Randall Grichuk lacks Canario’s plate discipline, but their hit/power profiles are similar. Triangulate those players and that’s what the ceiling for Canario looks like.

As is the case with so many of the San Francisco Giants top hitting prospects, the development of his hit tool will determine whether the MLB team ever sees him flourish.

Next season’s assignment will be an intriguing look at how far along the Giants believe Canario is. Going into his age-20 season, an assignment to High-A isn’t out of the question, but Single-A would be a reasonable next step as well.

3. OF Heliot Ramos

Age: 20
Acquired: 2017 draft (1st round)
Future Value: 55 (grade up)
Stock: -2

It’s not often that a player’s grade increases while their organizational ranking goes down, but here we are. That isn’t a poor reflection on Ramos as a prospect, but more an indication of how much Joey Bart and Marco Luciano have improved.

In the midseason rankings, all three prospects were clustered close together, and differentiating their value has only gotten harder. At that point, I was highest on Ramos due to his combination of youth and success against advanced competition.

In the time since, both Ramos and Bart were promoted to Double-A Richmond and selected to play in the prestigious Arizona Fall League. Against that next tier of competition, Bart began consistently outperforming Ramos and separating himself. Meanwhile, Luciano enjoyed unparalleled success in the lower levels of the minors.

The point being, the No. 3 spot on this list is not far from the No. 1 spot.

Regardless of how he compares to his Giants peers, Ramos has the potential to be a big-time difference-maker. His frame would fit at running back or strong safety on an SEC football field, but on the diamond, it produces a combination of plus speed, power, and arm strength.

People within the Giants organization are hopeful he can stick in center field. Given Farhan Zaidi’s background with the Dodgers, a team that has had success with unorthodox fits in center field (e.g. Cody Bellinger), it’s not out of the question. However, the scouting community thinks he’ll lose a step as he completes his maturation, leaving him with more of a prototypical right field profile.

The concern with Ramos is his hit tool. He’s struggled to make consistent contact at times and hasn’t always shown a willingness to take walks. This season at High-A, he took a huge step forward by cutting his strikeouts and increasing his walk rate.  However, after a promotion to Double-A and so far in his AFL stint, both numbers have regressed.

I thought people failed to take into account the environment Ramos was in two years ago at Single-A August and I think they could fall prey to the same mistakes now. At Double-A, Ramos finished the season with a solid .242/.321/.421 line, which may seem underwhelming on the surface. However, the FanGraphs wRC+ calculations, which take into account the environment of the league, deemed his production to be 19 percent better than the league-average player.

People around the industry rave about his character and work ethic and expect him to do everything in his power to develop his hit tool. Still, whether he stays in center field could have a significant impact on his value. In center, his hit tool won’t need to develop very much for him to have a Joc Pederson like profile. That said, his offensive ceiling could be prime Yoenis Cespedes.

The San Francisco Giants have been aggressive with Ramos ever since they selected him in the first round of the 2017 draft. To that point, Zaidi mentioned that he, along with Bart, will have a chance to start next season at Triple-A.

Ramos may be struggling against elite talent in the Arizona Fall League, but don’t forget about context. He won’t be as old as Hunter Bishop is today until 2021. He has time to stall and still emerge as a future All-Star.

2. C Joey Bart

Age: 22
Acquired: 2018 draft (1st round)
Future Value: 55 (grade up)
Stock: +1

I’ve been the low man on Joey Bart since the lead up to the 2018 draft. His profile was incredibly reminiscent of Mike Zunino, and first-round catchers outside of Buster Posey just do not have a very good recent track record.

It is approaching the point where I have to start eating some crow.

The important thing with Bart will be tempering expectations. There is only one Buster Posey, and even if Bart reaches his ceiling, he likely won’t make the same impact that Posey has in his career. Bart has a great chance of developing into an All-Star caliber player, but there’s a reason Posey already has a strong Hall of Fame case.

Bart entered his junior season at Georgia Tech as an above-average defensive catcher with plus power, but there were substantial questions about his hit tool that left him out of the first-round conversation.

That spring, he doubled his walk rate, lowered his strikeouts, and continued to punish the ball while improving his defensive acumen. That quickly vaulted him into the top-10 pick conversation and he eventually became the San Francisco Giants clear target at No. 2 overall.

After a strong pro debut, he was sent to High-A to start the 2019 season, where he didn’t exactly excel. He missed time with a fractured hand and took some time to shake off the rust upon returning. The plate discipline improvements he showed in college also didn’t see to carry over.

Despite his modest production, he was aggressively promoted to Double-A, and he responded by absolutely crushing the ball. In 87 plate appearances following the promotion, he hit a robust .316/.368/.544.  His strikeout rate jumped more than four percentage points to 24.1 percent, but his walk rate jumped along with it to 8 percent.

To make up for the lost plate appearances, he was sent to the Arizona Fall League. Through 10 games, he hit .333/.524/.767 with four home runs and more walks (9) than strikeouts (7), before getting hit on the hand and suffering a fractured thumb. If not for the injury, he would have claimed the No. 1 spot in these rankings.

Beyond the offensive production, Bart is already an above-average catcher, and he receives rave reviews for his intangibles. At this point, an outcome like Zunino seems like the floor for Bart, with a ceiling as a plus-defensive catcher with 25-homer power.

A strong spring will put him in Triple-A to start the year, and a 2020 debut is well within the realm of possibility.

1. Marco Luciano

Age: 18
Acquired: IFA (2018 )
Future Value: 55 (grade up)
Stock: +2

Simply put, Marco Luciano has one of the highest ceilings in baseball.

San Francisco Giants fans probably feel like they’ve heard that before with Angel Villalona, Rafael Rodriguez, and Gustavo Cabrera, but Luciano has the tools to make fans forget the long drought of developing talent from Latin America.

His bat speed rivals Canario for best in the organization, but it comes from a much smoother swing. Many scouts have put a 70-80 grade on his raw power. That alone earned him a $2.6 million signing bonus during the 2018 international signing period. He also has an advanced approach and a chance to stick at shortstop.

In his first taste of professional ball, Luciano hit .322/.438/.616 with 10 home runs in 47 games at the rookie ball level, earning a surprise promotion to Low-A in the process.

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He hit just .212/.316/.333 in nine games following the move up before a hamstring injury ended his season. Still, he walked nearly as much as he struck out alongside a .259 BABIP, which suggests he might have suffered from some bad luck.

And he did all that at the age of 17.

No prospect in franchise history has had that level of success at that age. Frankly, few prospects have ever matched Luciano’s production at his age.

With that being said, Luciano has yet to reach full-season ball and he’s far from a finished product. He has impressed people with his focus on improving defensively and even scouts who are low on his defensive prospects at shortstop believe he can be above average at third base, second base, or right field.

Luciano will likely be one of the youngest players at the Single-A level to start the 2020 season. If he has success, he’ll quickly jump into conversations among the best prospects in baseball.

Prospect dedication is such a fickle part of fandom because so much can change so abruptly. That said, Luciano may be the best prospect the San Francisco Giants organization has ever had.

So there you have it, the 10 best prospects in the San Francisco Giants farm system at the conclusion of the 2020 season. It’s a system on the rise, and these guys are the cream of the crop.