San Francisco Giants: 5 bold predictions for the rest of the season

The San Francisco Giants enter today a game above .500 and 2.5 games out of the playoffs. Now that the trade deadline whirlwind is over, Marc Delucchi makes some bold predictions about what lies ahead.

Yes, the trade deadline is over. The months of researching trade guesses and over-analyzing rumors has come to an end. Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith are still in a San Francisco Giants uniform and while rookie president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi made a flurry of moves, the core remains intact.

Let’s take a moment to unpack the season that’s been.

The Giants entered spring training as the consensus pick to finish at the bottom of the NL West. Yangervis Solarte, Gerardo Parra, and Drew Ferguson were competing for roster spots. Connor Joe and Michael Reed started on Opening Day and this team played exactly as predicted.

They were bad and we were already speculating on what sort of prospect packages Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith could bring back before the end of May.

You already know the story. Whether you want to call Alex Dickerson the savior, or credit the clubhouse culture cultivated by future hall of fame manager Bruce Bochy and the team’s veterans, they have turned it around.

San Francisco is now a game above .500 and only 2.5 games out of playoff position. Even with their flaws, they are a legitimate contender.

The Giants players were asking for trust. They wanted the front office to give them a chance to prove they were a worthy contender. Zaidi has given them that opportunity, and now its their turn to prove him right.

Only time will tell whether the Giants are a legitimate contender or pretender, but enjoy my five predictions for what lies ahead.

1. Madison Bumgarner will finish the season with a sub-3.00 ERA in the second half

There seem to be only two types of baseball fans left: ones that still believe Madison Bumgarner is a few small adjustments away from returning to the pitcher he was from 2011-2016 and ones who believe he’s now just a solid back-end starter.

That’s a bit of an oversimplification. Since the ill-fated dirt bike incident in 2017, the trends in velocity, strikeouts, and contact have provided plenty of reason for skepticism that he was anything more than an innings-eater at this point.

His velocity rebounded this season, but he continued to surrender lots of hard-contact early on.

At his best, Bumgarner thrived on a unique combination of command, deceptiveness, and movement. The margin for error seemed microscopic and back-to-back years of injuries and hundreds of innings just might have put perfection out of reach.

Then, Bumgarner made an adjustment to be more deliberately random with his pitch locations. Ever since, the results have mimicked his prime.

In his seven starts since realigning his pitch pattern, which included a two-inning outing that he had to leave early after being struck by a line drive, here are his numbers:

• 6.14 IP/GS, 2.51 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 6.9 H/9

In his prime from 2011-2016, Bumgarner produced:

• 6.5 IP/GS, 3.00 ERA , 9.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 7.6 H/9

It’s worth mentioning that his BABIP over his last seven starts is .290, which is actually higher than it was from 2011-2016.

He has been pitching like THAT Bumgarner. The same one that won World Series MVP in 2014 and was one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Once Marcus Stroman and Trevor Bauer were traded to teams that were not even supposed to be in the market for pitching, one had to think someone like the Astros, Yankees, or Twins would have been tempted to give the Giants an offer they couldn’t refuse.

The Astros acquired Zack Greinke, but the Twins and Yankees stood pat.

I think they’ll come to regret it.

Bumgarner is performing closer to his prime than he has since the accident. I expect his resurrection to continue in the second half, just in time for his first foray into free agency.

2. Brandon Belt will hit 20 home runs on the season

This is easily the craziest of my predictions. Even after his pinch-hit home run earlier this week, Belt still needs eight more in the San Francisco Giants last 53 games to reach 20.

He’s been in one of the worst slumps of his career and some have questioned how much is left in the tank. Since moving into the leadoff spot, Belt is hitting a meager .226/.305/.280.

It’s difficult to know whether the slump is caused by his lineup position, or if it’s just a coincidence. Regardless, while the team went on their offensive tear, Belt was left behind.

Still, I’ve always been on Brandon’s side of the Belt wars. We have seen these lows before. However, he’s shown us time and time again that he can put together impressive stretches as well.

Furthermore, a number of statistics suggest that Belt has suffered from some bad luck that’s hurt his power output.

Obviously, playing in Oracle Park means that Belt will have a below-average home run-to-flyball ratio (HR/FB%), but Belt’s 8.8 HR/FB% on the season is easily the lowest of his career since becoming an everyday player. He’s due for some positive regression.

According to FanGraphs, he is also hitting more fly balls than ever in his career, while making hard contact at one of the highest rates of his career. If he continues those trends, it will eventually pay dividends.

The Giants will need it. While they were an offensive powerhouse for a stretch, we’ve seen their production regress over the past week. A hot stretch from Belt may be necessary to keep their lineup afloat.

4. The Giants will finish in second place in the NL West

I get to pat myself on the back here. Even though I’ve long been skeptical of the Giants playoff chances, I was one of the few people to who didn’t predict them to finish last in the NL West. In fact, I projected them to finish second in the division

Part of my prediction had to do with my skepticism of the rest of the NL West. No roster entered Opening Day without big questions and that remains the case today.

Through all of the ups and downs of the season that is where they stand today. They didn’t move any major pieces at the deadline. On the other hand, their closest competition for second place is the Arizona Diamondbacks and they just sold their best pitcher.

I’ll admit, I didn’t see them finishing in second because of Alex Dickerson. I also had some belief that Drew Pomeranz and/or Derek Holland would actually be solid contributors in the rotation. However, my primary justification was a belief in president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. I believed that he would find ways to work along the margins to improve this roster and he’s done exactly that.

5. They will make the playoffs

Okay, let’s get this out of the way. Yes, I’ve been drinking a lot of the recent Kool-Aid.

Ironically, my biggest question mark for this team isn’t offensive. Even with Joe Panik’s struggles and Alex Dickerson’s injury trouble, I have faith in the depth of the roster.

The additions of Scooter Gennett and Mauricio Dubon provide a number of middle infield options. They also added more upper-minors outfield depth at the deadline, giving them further insurance to injuries.

My biggest concern is in the starting rotation. Tyler Beede and Shaun Anderson have both begun to struggle, Dereck Rodriguez has been ineffective all season, and Jeff Samardzija’s peripherals are skeptical of his recent performance.

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However, if you believe in a rebound from Bumgarner, which I do, he’s shown in the past that he’s capable of carrying a rotation, like he did in 2016. Furthermore, the return of Johnny Cueto is potentially right around the corner. The quality of pitcher that Cueto is when he returns may ultimately be the deciding factor.

The San Francisco Giants didn’t just hold onto Smith and Bumgarner. Look at what the teams ahead of them in the standings did at the deadline.

At the moment, the Giants need to jump three of the following four teams: the Cubs, Nationals, Phillies, and Brewers. None of them made major additions at their biggest areas of need.

The Nationals bullpen has been a problem and while they added three relievers, none are game-changers. The Phillies added Corey Dickerson, who will provide a nice outfield bat, but their pitching remains a question. The Brewers only additions were the pair of relievers in Ray Black and Drew Pomeranz who they got from the Giants, and even if you believe in them, their starting pitching is a huge hole.

Furthermore, the Giants have a tough schedule in the second half. Normally that wouldn’t be a good thing. However, in this case it means they are playing many of the teams they need to pass in the standings.

They host the Nationals and Phillies at Oracle Park in back-to-back three-game series starting Monday. A losing streak could make this prediction look stupid very quickly, but it’s also a prime opportunity for them to assert themselves.

It won’t be easy.

To win just 87 games, which still might not be enough for the playoffs, they need to go 33-22 in their remaining 55 games. That’s a .600 winning percentage.

Even if they don’t make it to the Wild Card Game, they have plenty of bulletin board material already. Many had them completely counted out just a month ago. Now they are above .500 into August.

Did you think that was in the cards back in April?

No. Of course you didn’t.

This season has already been a roller-coaster in the best possible way and there are plenty more chances ahead for unexpected twists.

Now that we no longer have to dive into every rumor, we get to do what we do best. Sit back and enjoy some competitive San Francisco Giants baseball.