San Francisco Giants: Building a trade with the Chicago Cubs

Normally, a team of the Chicago Cubs stature would not be worrying about expenses at this point in the season. However, that hasn’t been the case this year. After being one of the most aggressive teams in free agency from 2014-2018, this past offseason saw the Cubs watching from the sidelines for the most part.

Owner Tom Ricketts received a lot of criticism after saying they did not make any major signings because “we don’t have any [money].”

This past week they broke from the company line when the Cubs signed closer Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43 million contract. Reports suggest that utilityman Ben Zobrist’s departure from the team to address his personal life likely allowed for the splurge.

The organization has been keen about staying below the luxury-tax line under president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, and that’s not expected to change. Kimbrel likely capped any remaining payroll flexibility the team had.

Another limitation for Chicago is their lack of prospect talent. They have one of the bottom ten farm systems in baseball, according to FanGraphs, and their system is largely propped up by top prospect Nico Hoerner who is a consensus Top 100 guy and appears inside the Top 50 on multiple lists.

Alongside Hoerner, catcher Miguel Amaya is also in the Top 100 conversation, but beyond that, they are lacking in top-tier prospect talent.

For that reason, I would expect Hoerner and Amaya to both be off-limits this trade cycle, along with promising right-hander Adbert Alzolay who has always been a favorite of the front office.

At the same time, it’s worth noting the Cubs’ brass isn’t afraid to break from industry consensus when their internal reports differ. They surprised more than a few people they parted with shortstop Gleyber Torres as the centerpiece in their 2016 acquisition of Aroldis Chapman.

At the time, Torres ranked among the top 30 prospects in baseball by both ESPN’s Keith Law and Baseball America., making him a hefty price to pay for a rental reliever. However, a source familiar with the Cubs’ front office at the time has since told me that their analytics department believed Torres was being overvalued by most prospect analysts. Perhaps this will be the case again.

As far as what the Cubs will be seeking on the trade market, the answer again lies in the bullpen. Even after adding Kimbrel, the Cubs still need a trustworthy southpaw and greater overall depth, and the Giants have two relievers that would be excellent fits.

On to the trade proposals.

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Cubs: LHP Will Smith
To Giants: RHP Brandon Morrow, LHP Brailyn Marquez, LHP Justin Steele, 3B Christopher Morel

If you haven’t been following the San Francisco Giants over the past couple of seasons, you probably have no idea how good Will Smith has been.  After missing the 2017 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, he has been one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball.

This season, he is a perfect 16-for-16 on save opportunities and the peripherals back up his dominance. In 26.2 innings, Smith has struck out 38 while allowing only six walks and two home runs. His ERA, FIP, and xFIP all hover in the high-1.00s to low-2.00s.

Pairing Smith with Kimbrel would turn the Cubs’ biggest weakness into a strength. It would also create a trickle-down effect throughout the relief corps, making the entire bullpen better top-to-bottom.

Smith is set for free agency at season’s end and is only receiving a minimal $4.225 million salary this year. The Cubs should be able to fit that into their budget, but the Giants could also lend a hand in that department.

Brandon Morrow hasn’t pitched since mid-2018 and has only recently begun throwing from flat ground again. Sending Morrow to San Francisco in the deal would take his $9 million salary off of the books and actually make the trade a cash gain for the Cubs.

The Cubs would be giving up on the chance that Morrow returns to his old form, but at 34 years old and without a current timetable for a return, that’s far from a sure thing. On the Giants side, if Morrow does rebound, they could accept his $12 million team option for next year and look to move him during the offseason. Otherwise, they can just cut and run.

The Giants goal in trading Smith is to bring back quality prospects, and taking on Morrow’s salary could help boost the prospect haul.

Smith was already on track to be one of the most desired bullpen arms of the summer, and now that Toronto Blue Jays closer Ken Giles has gone on the injured list with elbow inflammation, the market will only be more competitive.

In order for the two sides to match up, the Giants will have to be high on the Cubs pitching prospects.

Brailyn Marquez is a raw 20-year-old lefty whose fastball already reaches 99 mph. At Single-A, Marquez has struggled with control (27 BB in 41 IP), but the strikeouts (52) show his upside. He would immediately become the best pitching prospect in the Giants system.

Justin Steele is another lefty, but one with a more standard prospect profile. Less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery, his early season struggles could be cause for concern. He has a 6.40 ERA at Double-A, but the peripherals suggest he’s been a victim of bad luck. He has an absurdly high .407 BABIP and he has struck out over a batter an inning.

The 23-year old profiles at the back of a rotation where he can work off his low-90s fastball and curveball, which flashes as a plus-pitch. His changeup will need to be refined, but he’s taken significant strides with it already.

Christopher Morel is a teenager who has already reached full-season ball. His raw power will have to carry him since his hit tool needs significant development. A plus-arm makes him a candidate for third base or right field, but he doesn’t have the most athletic frame.

Marquez and Steele would give the Giants a pair of pitching prospects with complementing floor/ceiling profiles, while Morrow and Morel would give them a couple of lottery tickets.

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2

To Cubs: LHP Tony Watson
To Giants: LHP Tyler Chatwood, OF Ian Happ, C Jhonny Pereda

After adding Kimbrel and with an already thin farm system, I’ll admit that a Smith trade seems unlikely.  A more prudent approach for the Cubs will be to work along the margins of the bullpen.

On the surface, San Francisco Giants setup man Tony Watson could be another reliever set to bring back some nice prospect pieces. He has a career-low 1.0 BB/9 and a quality 2.70 ERA over 26.2 high-leverage innings.

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However, my fellow Around the Foghorn contributor Jeff Young already touched on how Watson has been quite lucky on the mound this year. He’s still a quality left-handed reliever that would help a number of teams, Cubs included, but not one who will drive a bidding war.

Meanwhile, Tyler Chatwood has been a catastrophe in Chicago since signing a three-year, $38 million contract prior to last season. The 29-year-old has always struggled with command, but for the Cubs his control has relegated him to the bullpen where he has pitched around 21 walks in 35 innings to post a respectable 3.60 ERA.

Ian Happ looked like one of the Cubs future building blocks as a rookie in 2017. At 22, he slugged .514 and knocked 24 home runs. He took a step back in his sophomore season, relying on an unsustainable BABIP to hold a .233/.353/.408 slash line. This season, he’s been optioned to Triple-A and has held his own, but his numbers are far from impressive in the Pacific Coast League.

While Happ lacks a clear future in Chicago, he would still probably be the best corner outfielder on the Giants. At 24, and with his prime years ahead, Happ would be a great addition.

Jhonny Pereda acts as a stand-in for any throw-in that might appeal to the Giants to round out the deal. Pereda projects as a contact-oriented defense-first backup catcher. He would give the Giants some necessary catching depth after Aramis Garcia and Joey Bart, while offering a profile neither one of them has.

This is where I think the Giants could find a fit with the Cubs. Chicago would upgrade their bullpen, unload an albatross contract, and not touch any of their top prospects. The Giants would come out with a young outfielder, a project for their pitching coaches, and a flier.

If the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants are going to match up on a deal, it could very well look something like this.

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