San Francisco Giants: Building a trade with the New York Yankees

With a sell-off likely coming from the San Francisco Giants this summer, Marc Delucchi will go team-by-team for a look at how each contender fits as a potential trade partner. Next up, the New York Yankees.

We are now 52 games into the 2019 MLB season, and the San Francisco Giants are 10 games under .500 and in last place in the NL West standings.

That shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone after back-to-back losing seasons and with the team clearly in the early stages of a rebuild.

The July 31st trade deadline may still seem like it’s a long ways off, but with new rules in place that have eliminated August waiver trades, teams like the Giants may be worried about waiting too long and missing their chance to sell.

Meanwhile, the New York Yankees have flexed their organizational depth here in 2019. Despite having an All-Star team of players on the injured list, the Yankees still have the third-best record in baseball.

Those injuries will allow the Yankees to welcome back many reinforcements as the season progresses, but the front office will still be looking for upgrades to try and finish a postseason run as champions for the first time since 2009.

The Yankees farm system regularly ranked among the best in baseball for the past several seasons, but with many of their top prospects moving on to the majors or fizzling out, they’ve slid a bit. Today, pundits rank the Yankees’ system somewhere between top 15 or top 20 systems in the league.

However, as I’ve discussed in the previous editions, the Giants best assets won’t require one of the best prospects in baseball, and the Yankees have a plethora of players with which to build an enticing trade package.

So let’s take a look at the kind of package that would make the Giants and Yankees pull the trigger.

San Francisco Giants closer Will Smith ranks among the best relievers in the game, and the New York Yankees have shown a willingness to acquire relievers even when it wasn’t necessarily an area of need in the past.

However, the Yankees bullpen is strong enough to make a Smith trade unlikely. Furthermore, other Giants relievers like Nick Vincent, Tony Watson, and Sam Dyson won’t appeal to New York as assets.

Of course, I know why you’re all here, and it’s not to read about Will Smith or any other reliever.

Rumors have swirled around Giants ace Madison Bumgarner for the last year and the Yankees have long made sense as a potential landing spot.

Masahiro Tanaka and Domingo German have formed a strong duo at the top of the New York rotation, but injuries have hit the rest of the starting staff hard.

Luis Severino, James Paxton, Jordan Montgomery, C.C. Sabathia, and Jonathan Loaisiga are all on the injured list. Veteran J.A. Happ has managed to stay healthy, but he has struggled to a 5.16 ERA and 5.71 FIP in 11 starts.

The Yankees could simply sit back and wait for their starters to get healthy. On paper, they already have enough for a deep playoff run. An organization that hasn’t won a championship since 2009 might not be too keen on playing it safe, though.

Here’s a quick recap of my thinking on Bumgarner’s potential trade value if you’re new to the sell-off series:

First off, his contract situation limits his potential return. His salary is a reasonable $12 million, but it expires at the end of the year. A rental starter that is less an ace and more a mid-rotation arm with ace upside is simply not going to bring back a package with multiple stud prospects.

He has a career-worst 4.10 ERA on the year. However, he has also regained velocity and is posting his best strikeout rate, FIP, and xFIP since the 2016 season, when he was still one of the best pitchers in the world.

No other available starter will have his reputation and pedigree. That alone could drive up the price and allow the Giants to secure a better return.

With that in mind, what follows is my best attempt at building a fair deal to bring Bumgarner to New York.

Alongside Fraizer, the Giants should ask for one of the Yankees top pitching prospects.

Since the Yankees system lacks true top-end talent, they will have to give up prospects higher on their organizational list than teams like the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins did in my previous sell-off series proposals.

The consensus would seem to place Jonathan Loaisiga, Deivi Garcia, Albert Abreu, and Clarke Schmidt at the top of the pitching prospect heap for the Yankees. Any player from this group fits the bill for the Giants. From my perspective, Clarke Schmidt makes the most sense.

Garcia had a breakout 2018 season and is probably the one the Yankees will be least willing to move. Loaisiga struggled early in the season and is now dealing with a shoulder injury, while his MLB-ready profile makes him a valuable depth piece for the contending Yankees.

That leaves Abreu and Schmidt, who have both had arm injuries in the past and are both in their age-23 season.

Abreu has struggled with control throughout his career and 2019 has been no different with 32 walks in 43.1 innings at Double-A. Still, his power stuff, including a fastball that touches 101 mph and two above-average offspeed pitches, gives him an extremely high ceiling.

Schmidt has gotten off to a stronger start at High-A, and he still has the advanced four-pitch mix that made him the No. 16 pick in the 2017 draft even when he was a month removed from Tommy John surgery. He’s more floor than ceiling, though, and the Yankees might be more willing to part with him as the primary prospect piece in a Bumgarner deal.

Finally, the Yankees have a number of raw prospects at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Right-hander Yoendrys Gomez is an example of a pitching prospect with some intriguing upside, but really anyone with tools that have caught the attention of the Giants scouting department fits as a secondary piece.

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal

To Yankees: LHP Madison Bumgarner
To Giants: OF Clint Frazier, RHP Clarke Schmidt, RHP Yoendrys Gomez

A package of Clint Frazier, Clarke Schmidt, and Yoendrys Gomez looks like the strongest offer I’ve put together thus far in the sell-off series.

If the two teams wanted to get a bit more creative, a bad contract swap of Mark Melancon and Jacoby Ellsbury could also make sense for both sides.

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Ellsbury hasn’t played since October 2017 and Melancon has been a solid middle reliever this season. Both contracts expire after next season, with Ellsbury set to earn $21.1 million and Melancon owed $19 million. Both players have full no-trade clauses, so they would have to agree to the deal.

So what would be the appeal for the Giants?

Taking on that extra $2.1 million, plus the $5 million buyout that Ellsbury is owed in 2021, might be enough for the Giants to extract a better top-tier pitching prospect or the lower-level guy they covet most.

There’s also the matter of Bumgarner’s eight-team no-trade clause, which was strategically stocked with contenders, including the Yankees. While it is unlikely that Bumgarner would reject a trade to the Yankees or any other contender, it will likely take a financial incentive of some sort to get him to waive his no-trade rights.

The Giants and Yankees have long been linked on a potential Madison Bumgarner trade. There are a few hoops the teams will have to jump through, but if Bumgarner is wearing pinstripes come October, the package the Giants receive in return could look something like the above.

Stay tuned for the next edition of the San Francisco Giants sell-off series.