San Francisco Giants: Building a trade with the Minnesota Twins
With a sell-off likely coming from the San Francisco Giants this summer, Marc Delucchi will go team-by-team for a look at how each contender fits as a potential trade partner. Next up, the Minnesota Twins.
The San Francisco Giants may have had a winning record last week, but they are still far from contenders. Perhaps this group has a run in them. If so, it will need to start soon.
Otherwise, expect first-year president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to be trading away his most valuable talent this summer.
The July 31st trade deadline may still seem like it’s a long ways off, but with new rules in place that have eliminated August waiver trades, teams like the Giants may be worried about waiting too long and missing their chance to sell.
Entering 2019, the Minnesota Twins seemed ready for another middling season. The Cleveland Indians didn’t acquire much help, but the reigning division champs still seemed like the clear-cut favorite in the division.
Instead, the Twins have shot out of the gates to build a 5.5 game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central standings, and they are only a half-game behind the Houston Astros for the best record in baseball.
Like Houston, the Twins have one of the 10 best farm systems in baseball, led by Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. Barring any severe changes in their value though, the Giants most tradeable assets only justify prospects a tier below.
I already looked at potential trades between the Giants and Astros, so it’s only natural to continue down the standings to look at how Minnesota matches up with Los Gigantes.
It’s already clear within the Minnesota front office that they’ll have to add to their bullpen. The Twins relief corps ranks 17th in the majors with a 4.09 ERA and has employed a closer-by-committee approach in the early going.
The Giants are better suited than any other sellers to deal bullpen help.
Will Smith has been one of the best closers in baseball, while Sam Dyson, Nick Vincent, and Tony Watson have all been effective in middle relief or setup roles.
The Giants have both top-end solutions (Smith and Dyson) to slot into 8th and 9th inning roles and effective band-aids (Watson and Vincent) to help their middle-relief corps.
A middling prospect or two could bring in Watson and/or Vincent, but you aren’t reading this to see those trades.
Let’s assume Minnesota goes big-game hunting for Smith or the Giants other top-tier trade chip, Madison Bumgarner.
The Twins rotation has been solid but lacks big-game experience, and that would certainly be remedied by adding Bumgarner to the staff.
While Smith and Bumgarner obviously fill different roles, both have the potential to prompt a bidding war.
No other starter will have Bumgarner’s reputation and pedigree, and there probably won’t be a better relief pitcher on the market than Smith. That could drive up their prices and allow the Giants to secure a better return.
On the next two slides, I will construct what I feel are fair deals to bring either Smith or Bumgarner to Minneapolis.
San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1
To Twins: LHP Will Smith
To Giants: SS Wander Javier, RHP Jhoan Duran, 1B/OF Brent Rooker
The Twins pen has held its own in high-leverage situations with a combination of Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers, and Ryne Harper, but none have particularly strong resumes. Furthermore, advanced numbers suggest that all have benefited from luck through the first two months of the season.
So let’s build a package for them to acquire Will Smith.
I’ll start with raw shortstop Wander Javier, who signed as a 16-year old with the Twins for a $4 million bonus back in 2015. Since starting his pro career, Javier has shown promise when on the field, but a string of injuries have limited him to only 50 career games.
He still has all the tools to be an All-Star up the middle and would fit in nicely with Marco Luciano as another high-ceiling in the lower minors. At the same time, he has yet to play above rookie ball and has dealt with a string of injuries, so the Twins might be willing to move him in the right deal.
Right-hander Jhoan Duran would be an attractive complementary piece to Javier.
The Twins acquired him from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the package for Eduardo Escobar. The 21-year-old is arguably the best pitching prospect in the Minnesota system outside of Brusdar Graterol, and there’s still room for him to take another step forward. The Twins system is thin on impact arms, but if they want to make a play at the top of the trade market, they’re going to have to give something up.
Rounding out the package is first baseman/outfielder Brent Rooker. The 24-year-old has a profile similar to Chris Shaw at this point in his career, and he has struggled at Triple-A this season. His 60-grade power carries enough intrigue that he’s worth taking a chance on, though. The Giants system depth could allow him to go back to Double-A to see if he can make some adjustments.
San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2
To Twins: LHP Madison Bumgarner, RHP Nick Vincent
To Giants: RHP Brusdar Graterol, 2B Yunior Severino, C Ryan Jeffers
Barring an extreme overpay, Zaidi won’t be dealing Will Smith and Madison Bumgarner to the same team. Separating them out is the best way to extract maximum value for both.
In a scenario where Minnesota has zeroed in on Bumgarner, they could still use some relief help. Nick Vincent wouldn’t solve Minnesota’s most pressing bullpen questions, but he would give them another solid middle relief option.
Now for the Giants return.
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A package centered around Javier and Duran might still be enough to pry Bumgarner out of San Francisco. However, public pressure could force the Giants front office to push for more in return for their homegrown ace.
Would Minnesota consider parting with Brusdar Graterol if it means adding an arm that could push them over the top in October?
The 20-year-old has gotten off to an incredibly strong start at Double-A where he has posted a 1.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a .188 opponents’ batting average with 46 strikeouts in 47.2 innings.
MLB.com wrote: “His stuff, command and strength all add to a big up arrow next to his name, with a future as a frontline starter a distinct possibility.”
Yunior Severino and Ryan Jeffers would round out this package.
Severino is a middle infielder with some upside, but he is blocked by several others in the Minnesota system and has been on the injured list since April. Buying low on him could pay dividends.
Jeffers was Minnesota’s second-round pick in last year’s draft and he would immediately become the second-best catching prospect in the Giants system behind No. 1 prospect Joey Bart.
That would be a steep price for the Twins to pay, but that could be what it costs for the Giants to finally pull the trigger on dealing Bumgarner.
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So there you have it, two potential deadline deals the Giants could pursue with the Twins as their trade partner. Stay tuned for the next edition of the San Francisco Giants sell-off series.