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San Francisco Giants: Building a trade with the Houston Astros

By Marc Delucchi |
SAN DIEGO, CA - APRIL 8: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on April 8, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - APRIL 8: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on April 8, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
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SAN DIEGO, CA – APRIL 8: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on April 8, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA – APRIL 8: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on April 8, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

With a sell-off likely coming from the San Francisco Giants this summer, Marc Delucchi will go team-by-team for a look at how each contender fits as a potential trade partner. First up, the Houston Astros.

The 2019 MLB season is nearly two months old and the San Francisco Giants are five games under .500 in last place in the NL West standings.

That shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone after back-to-back losing seasons and with the team clearly headed for a rebuilding period.

The July 31st trade deadline may still seem like it’s a long ways off, but with new rules in place that have eliminated August waiver trades, teams like the Giants may be worried about waiting too long and missing their chance to sell.

On the flip side, the Houston Astros have continued their recent trend of dominance.

The 2017 World Series champions have won back-to-back AL West titles and won an impressive 204 games the past two seasons.

It’s been more of the same this year. The currently hold the best record in baseball show no signs of slowing down with a sizable 8.5-game lead in the AL West standings.

Still, the front office will surely be looking to upgrade the roster as they gear up for another postseason run.

The Astros farm system consistently ranks among the ten best in baseball, which gives them plenty of firepower to bring in a game-changer if they decide to go that route.

So let’s take a look at how the Giants’ selloff could match up with the Astros’ needs.

LOS ANGELES, CA – APRIL 01: Will Smith #13 of the San Francisco Giants earns a save pitching in the ninth inning of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on April 1, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA – APRIL 01: Will Smith #13 of the San Francisco Giants earns a save pitching in the ninth inning of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on April 1, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

The Bullpen

San Francisco’s bullpen has been one of the best units in baseball.  As reinforcements await opportunities at the big-league level and the team’s closer, Will Smith, is set for free agency at the end of the year, they look poised to be active players on the relief pitcher market.

Aside from Smith, Nick Vincent, Sam Dyson, and Tony Watson are other middle relief/setup options that don’t factor into the team’s long-term plans and could presumably help a contender.

However, the Astros don’t have a particular hole in their bullpen.

In fact, their unit is one of the few superior to the Giants’ pen in every statistical category. Houston’s relievers have the leagues best ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Roberto Osuna has been a dominant closer, while Will Harris, Ryan Pressly, and Hector Rondon have all been excellent in high-leverage roles.

Obviously, Smith would improve the Astros’ bullpen, but there are many other contenders in bigger need of bullpen help that will be desperate enough to offer up more from a prospect standpoint.

The Ace

When you’re the best team in baseball, there is only so much room for improvement.

The Astros starters rank among the best in baseball, but starting pitching is one thing that can move the needle. Recently promoted top prospect Corbin Martin could potentially form a dominant three-headed monster with veterans Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, but there’s a limit to what can reasonably be expected from a 23-year old rookie.

This is where longtime Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner comes in.

He’s capable of helping every contender for two reasons. First, he is surely better than at least one starter in every rotation. Second, and perhaps most importantly, while the Astros may not feel a need to upgrade their rotation, acquiring Bumgarner would keep him away from potential competitors.

Bumgarner did place the Astros as one of the teams on his limited no-trade clause. However, that only serves to extract extra compensation from the Giants, not to keep him away from Houston. If the Astros make the best offer, they’ll get him.

The Astros system definitely has the necessary talent to acquire Bumgarner, but finding a match is a bit more difficult.

Right-handers Forrest Whitley and Corbin Martin and outfielders Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are all good enough to get a deal done by themselves. It’s unlikely Houston would consider moving any of them for a rental, though. Even Bumgarner.

So where does that leave us?

WEST PALM BEACH, FL – FEBRUARY 28: J.B. Bukauskas #69 of the Houston Astros pitches in the third inning against the Miami Marlins at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on February 28, 2019 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
WEST PALM BEACH, FL – FEBRUARY 28: J.B. Bukauskas #69 of the Houston Astros pitches in the third inning against the Miami Marlins at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches on February 28, 2019 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal

To Astros: LHP Madison Bumgarner
To Giants: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, LHP Cionel Perez, OF Derek Fisher

The Houston system began the year with five players rated with a 50 future value from Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs:

  • RHP Corbin Martin (No. 50 MLB prospect)
  • RHP J.B. Bukauskas (No. 88 MLB prospect)
  • RHP Joshua James (No. 98 MLB prospect)
  • LHP Cionel Perez (No. 100 MLB prospect)
  • OF Yordan Alvarez (No. 125 MLB prospect)

One player of that value would be enough to serve as the centerpiece. The problem is, none of them have really maintained their value. Some have exceeded expectations (Alvarez, Martin) while others have had disappointing starts to the season (Bukauskas, James, Perez).

More from Around the Foghorn

However, that might allow the Giants to extract even more value. While Bukauskas and Perez are not off to the best starts, both pitchers offer significant upside, and both moved quickly through the Houston system last year.

The Astros front office has already shown a willingness to deal both, as they were reportedly part of offseason negotiations with Arizona for first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

Both pitchers are probably closer to 45+ FV players now, making it plausible that the Giants could acquire both as the centerpieces for Bumgarner.

Given the depth of hitters in their system and at the major league level, several MLB-ready players are currently blocked. That’s why J.D. Davis was traded to the New York Mets during the offseason, and the Astros could make a similar move with someone like first baseman AJ Reed or outfielder Derek Fisher to round out the package.

Next. Quality bullpen reinforcements await opportunity

The Astros get another proven veteran starters to solidify their starting rotation, while the Giants buy low on a pair of intriguing pitching prospects and add an MLB-ready outfielder to the mix.

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