San Francisco Giants: Odds for top All-Star candidates after one month

There’s a good chance the San Francisco Giants will only have one All-Star representative in 2019. With roughly one month in the books, here’s a quick look at the leading candidates and their odds.

Just four times in the past 25 years have the San Francisco Giants been limited to a single All-Star Game representative, and it’s happened just once in the past 11 seasons.

That came in 2017 when catcher Buster Posey was the only selection.

While it remains to be seen how many All-Star the team will have this year, given their sub-.500 record and lack of a clear statistical standout, there’s a good chance they will be flying solo in 2019.

So assuming the team does get just one representative, who will it be?

Ahead we’ve taken a shot at predicting just that.

What follows are the five most likely representatives, complete with odds on their selection. The should, obviously, add up to 100 percent, since someone has to represent the team.

However, you’ll notice the following odds add up to just 95 percent. That’s because we’ve left 5 percent open to cover “the field” which is anyone other than the five players highlighted here. Who knows? Maybe Chris Shaw gets called up and goes on a tear. Maybe Kevin Pillar starts hitting more consistently. Anything can happen, so we’re leaving 5 percent open to account for that.

Without further ado, here’s our best guess at who will be representing the Giants this summer in Washington D.C.

3B Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants

Stats: 36 PA, .333/.333/.694, 9 XBH (2 HR), 5 RBI, 7 R

Pablo Sandoval is the best hitter on the San Francisco Giants right now.

That says as much about the current state of the Giants offense as it does Sandoval’s performance, but it’s true nonetheless.

There’s no chance he maintains a .385 BABIP all season, and there’s nothing in his recent track record that would suggest this resurgence is anything more than an extended hot streak.

Still, maybe luck will stay on his side for the next few months and he’ll make a strong enough case to warrant an All-Star nod for the first time since 2012.

Crazier things have happened…although no example immediately comes to mind.

Odds: 1 percent

RP Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants

Stats: 10 G, 2 HLD, 0.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8 K, 10.2 IP

After struggling to a 3.78 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with nine blown saves in 23 chances during his first two seasons, Mark Melancon entered the season as an over-priced middle reliever with no chance of even sniffing an All-Star selection.

One month into the 2019 campaign, he’s tossed 10.2 scoreless innings with a 0.94 WHIP, and suddenly the idea of him being an All-Star doesn’t seem quite as outlandish.

His 2.46 FIP suggests his turnaround is legit. That said, it generally takes eye-popping strikeout numbers and a sub-2.00 ERA for a non-closer to make the All-Star team.

Odds: 2 percent

SP Dereck Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants

Stats: 5 GS, 3-2, 3.54 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 22 K, 28.0 IP

Dereck Rodriguez was the best pitcher on the Giants last season.

The surprise rookie standout went 6-4 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in 118.1 innings for 2.5 WAR.

While some regression was expected given his lack of overpowering stuff and a 3.74 FIP that suggested he was the beneficiary of some good luck, he’s been rock solid so far in 2019.

If the next two guys on this list are traded before the All-Star Game, which could absolutely happen, Rodriguez could be the team’s All-Star by default.

Odds: 7 percent

RP Will Smith, San Francisco Giants

Stats: 9 G, 6/6 SV, 1.09 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 9 K, 8.2 IP

The easiest way to fulfill the each team must have at least one representative rule is to simply grab the closer from teams that have not been covered by the fan and player votes.

Even on sub-.500 non-contenders, there is usually at least one quality reliever who would make for a worthwhile addition to the All-Star bullpen.

More from Around the Foghorn

• San Francisco Giants fans need this Captain Brandon Belt shirt
• SF Giants: Brandon Belt’s surge has powered winning streak
• SF Giants hitting prospects week in review (8/28-9/10)
• SF Giants: Pitching depth bolstered with waiver claim
• SF Giants: How Steven Duggar fits into playoff picture

To that point, Brad Hand (Padres), Felipe Vazquez (Pirates) and Joe Jimenez (Tigers) were each the lone representatives for their respective team last season.

The Giants enter play on Thursday with the best bullpen ERA in the majors (2.48). What better way to recognize that than with a spot nod to closer Will Smith.

The 29-year-old missed the entire 2017 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. However, he returned strong last season with a 2.55 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 12.1 K/9 while tallying 14 saves in 54 appearances.

He’s now locked into the closer’s role and has started the season a perfect 6-for-6 on save chances while posting a pristine 1.09 ERA.

The last time a Giants reliever made the All-Star team was Sergio Romo in 2013. He was preceded by guys like Brian Wilson, Rob Nenn and Rod Beck.

And looking ahead to the summer trade market, what better way for the Giants to showcase one of their top trade chips than by having him pitch on the national stage.

Odds: 60 percent