San Francisco Giants: Keeping up with the NL West

San Diego Padres

2018 Record: 66-96

2019 Vegas Prediction: 77-85

Players In for 2019: Garrett Richards, Ian Kinsler, Matt Szczur, Manny Machado

Players out for 2019: Freddy Galvis, Clayton Richard

So the Padres added (another) washed up infielder, and a starter to a team that was lucky to not lost 100 games, but somehow that pitching staff will be good enough to add 11 games to their win total? Do they all come from the Diamondbacks (the answer is no, and you’ll see later).

Vegas predictions don’t always have a ton of merit, especially in early season win totals. So we’ll see how the free agent market shakes out, and what the total sits at before the season starts. For the Padres to take an 11 win step forward, you’d be asking a lot from guys who have never been in the big leagues, or haven’t quite taken the step forward.

Don’t get me wrong, the Padres have a lot of young talent. Fernando Tatis, Cal Quantrill, Logan Allen, Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are all expected to play a role in their 2019 season. But asking all of them to play solid enough in their rookie years to add 11 wins is a lot. I’m not saying they cant, but I’m also won’t believe they can until they do. Why? Because they’re the Padres. And despite adding Manny Machado, who is very good, their pitching is still a large mess, and likely won’t be ready for another two to three years.

Believing in the Padres is like believing the Browns are a playoff contender. Until the Browns actually make they playoffs, they’re still the Browns. Until the Padres show they can actually turn their prospects into solid players, and find success and win, they’re still the Padres. I can’t wait to be proven wrong. You know why? They’ve never been able to do it, regardless of large acquisition or “top prospects.” So again, until the Padres see it out, and actually develop the kids, and they actually turn into their potential, I’ll believe they’re actually capable of doing that.