San Francisco Giants: 5 Under the Radar Acquisitions

If the San Francisco Giants do want to at least take a shot at contention in 2019, it would be a good idea to target low-risk high-reward players — Matt Harvey is just that.

He started his career by dominating the league from 2012 – 2015 (didn’t pitch in 2014 due to Tommy John surgery) to the tune of a 2.53 ERA/2.65 FIP over 65 games started and looked like a star in the making. However, then he has stunk it up in the three seasons since with a 5.39 ERA/4.76 FIP over another 68 games (63 starts).

Those recent stats would seem to indicate that Harvey will be lousy again for whoever signs him this offseason, right? Well, he’s a bit more interesting than those numbers would indicate.

For starters, his LOB% (percentage of runners left on base) is lower and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against is higher than it was during his early career peak.

These changes could be partially attributed to a slightly lower fastball velocity and a somewhat higher hard hit percentage against him – but luck could also factor into it a degree.

Additionally, over particularly the past two seasons, his HR/FB% (Percentage of fly balls that go for home runs) nearly doubles early career rates – a statistic that may make AT&T Park an enviable place to rebound in.

Even with all the potential for a dud season out of Harvey, his talent is still tantalizing. His velocity is right where it’s always been, he’ll be entering his age-30 season, and will likely only require a one or two-year commitment.

If he doesn’t completely bomb, there’s a chance another team sees him as a good candidate to trade for too if the Giants decide to sell during the deadline.

Current Detroit Tiger right fielder (and former third baseman) Nick Castellanos would be an intriguing, out of the box acquisition for this Giants team.

He has skills the San Francisco Giants should desire this offseason, while also having weaknesses they should want no part of.

Let’s start with the cons. He’s really, really slow and is consequently a terrible fielder. He was merely a below average defensive third baseman from 2014 – 2017, and really turned it down a notch when he was moved to the outfield last year, to the tune of a -2.4 dWAR. That’s … not so good.

There is no doubt in my mind Castellanos would struggle to defend AT&T Park’s vast outfield and maneuver its tricky obstacles. However, maybe putting him next to the rangy Steven Duggar in center field makes his job a bit easier, and it’s not like the Giants have shied away from putting defensive liabilities in the corner outfield in the past. At least this one can still rake.

He’s just 26, and last year was his first year as a full-time outfielder, so there remains a chance he can improve with more reps and experience out there.

If you want a middle of the order bat for cheap, they will have some warts.

At the plate is where he does his damage. Castellanos is a righty swinger (better for hitting for power at AT&T Park) who would bring balance to a left-leaning, contact-based lineup.

He has an OPS over .800 in each of the past three seasons and has hit 67 home runs over that same time period.

Last year was his best season yet, as he posted a wRC+ of 130, indicating he was about 30 percent better than the average hitter. For reference, the best a current Giant regular could muster in that stat last year was Brandon Belt, with a 107 wRC+. Now is the time for the Tigers to trade him.

In terms of cost, the Tigers will certainly want something in return, but they can’t reasonably ask for an absurd haul. After all, Castellanos has his limitations defensively (which will make some teams not consider him altogether), only one season of control left, and is projected to earn $11 million by MLBTR.

Anything more than an A-ball lottery ticket or one of the Giants’ many low ceiling arms that can’t stick at the Major League level would be too much in my opinion for a Castellanos rental. In fact, there may even be better options for the team in a few slides.

A former adversary during the 2014 World Series, Herrera may be looking to take a one-year pillow contract this offseason after a rough second half in 2018 with the Washington Nationals.

Again, AT&T Park and the Giants would make for a great destination for any pitcher looking to pad their stats and venture back out to the open market next offseason.

He still posted a 2.44 ERA last season when he was healthy (he missed time with a torn foot ligament). However, advanced stats painted a rougher picture, as he posted 3.95 FIP – likely due to an uptick in walks and fewer strikeouts than he has posted in prior seasons.

The righty would add depth and back-end potential to a bullpen that already features Will Smith, Tony Watson, and Mark Melancon. He features a fastball, which is his bread and butter, that he complements with a changeup and slider.

So what are some of the reasons Herrera struggled and may come cheap? Well, he’s not getting ground balls at the rate that he used to a few years ago, and his fastball has lost two ticks since he joined the league.

These are clearly points for concern, but Giants pitching coach Curt Young and bullpen coach Mark Gardner did have success with helping pitchers such as Dereck Rodriguez, Derek Holland, Watson, and Smith have career years last season.

He would also be a potential trade chip if he performs well, as every contender needs extra bullpen arms around trade deadline time. If he underperforms again, the contract isn’t too handicapping anyways as MLBTR projects him to earn a 1 year/$8 million contract this offseason.

An old friend, right-handed hitting outfielder Adam Duvall was traded to Cincinnati at the 2015 deadline with prospect Keury Mella in exchange for Mike Leake. After never being able to carve out a full-time role in San Francisco, Duvall exploded playing for the Reds, hitting 64 home runs with quality corner outfield defense from 2016-2017.

Granted, he did struggle mightily in 2018, so the Reds ultimately dealt him to Atlanta, where he had 57 putrid at-bats primarily off the bench (.344 OPS). He also had a .237 BABIP, by far the worst of his career and an indication that he may have suffered from some bad luck.

Additionally, his 2018 line drive, hard contact, walk, and strikeout rates are right in line with his career numbers, further indicating he might have just pissed off the wrong Baseball God.

Even considering that, Duvall is an ideal target for the Giants because he is a corner outfielder with right-handed power, a plus glove, three years of control, and he likely won’t cost too much because of his poor 2018.

The fact that the Braves would even be considering non-tendering Duvall indicates to me that he can be had for very cheap. It makes sense that the Braves would want to eschew him out, given their incredible prospect pool and apparent desire to add a more consistent/expensive bat to flank young star center fielder Ronald Acuna.

The skill set that Duvall can bring to the Giants, even as a bounce-back candidate, is tantalizing. He clearly struggled coming off the bench, but the Giants can finally give him regular playing time as he enters his age 30 season.

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Okay, maybe McCutchen isn’t as “under the radar” as the other names listed here, but there still hasn’t been much talk of where he could end up for next season.

A more recently familiar face, many fans may think Andrew McCutchen’s time with the San Francisco Giants was over. The Giants originally acquired the former MVP last offseason from the Pirates, then dealt him away in August to the Yankees for infielder Abiatal Avelino and right-handed pitcher Juan De Paula.

Despite being on a team that played its way out of playoff contention, McCutchen was one of the Giants best hitters during his tenure in the Bay. While he’s no longer the athlete or hitter he was at his peak, he still was an above average offensive contributor playing in the corner outfield.

He slashed .255/.368/.424 and finished quite strongly for the Yankees. Entering 2019, he’ll be just 32 years old, so his production hopefully should not fall off a cliff.

Since entering the league, he’s been a consistent, highly durable outfielder, having eight straight seasons of 20-plus homers and 145 games played. The Giants still should need that type of production and will seek it in free agency.

MLBTR projects him to make $30 million over three years, and that’s about the most I would spend to bring him back to San Francisco. It seemed like Cutch enjoyed his time with the Giants, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gives them a little favoritism in free agency as well, despite the current state of the team.

Last year, the market often spurned veterans who were limited to corners defensively and did not provide top-tier offensive production. If that happens again, McCutchen may well become a victim. If the price is right, the San Francisco Giants shouldn’t hesitate to scoop him up again.