San Francisco Giants fly to Cincinnati for weekend series

Game One: Kelly (0-1, 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) vs. DeSclafani (6-3, 4.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)

In a fill-in role for the newly injured Dereck Rodriguez, the Giants will send out Casey Kelly.  His first long relief appearance with the Giants was stellar. He relieved Ty Blach after he struggled through four innings, tossing five of his own, giving up only two hits and striking out three batters. His next relief appearance was in extras against the Dodgers, where he gave up two hits and a sac fly to allow a walk-off in the 12th inning.

The Reds have a tougher time hitting right-handed pitching than left-handed, and are at their worst offensive splits since the month of May. Eugenio Suarez is the only guy with experience against Kelly, with one strikeout in one at-bat. This is Kelly’s first start since May of 2016 when he was with the Braves. He hurled five innings against the Phillies, giving up three earned runs and seven hits.

Opposing him is Anthony DeSclafani, who has pitched wonderfully in his last two starts, including a seven inning shutout of the Diamondbacks. Unfortunately for him, the last two starts came after three consecutive starts where he couldn’t get past the fifth inning. He has not faced the Giants yet this season, and the lineup does not have a lot of history against him.

The player who has the most is Andrew McCutchen (3-for-13, 1 2B, 2 RBI). Although the numbers aren’t great, over the last three season McCutchen has hit 7 home runs and tallied 20 RBI at Great American Ballpark. The guy with the best history in the lineup goes to Brandon Belt, who is 3-for-3 lifetime with a home run and a double.

Game Two: Bumgarner (4-4, 2.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs. Harvey (5-7, 5.19 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)

The Giants will send out their ace Madison Bumgarner in the Saturday evening game. August has not been so friendly to Bumgarner’s WHIP, and had it not been for a 9th inning rally, he likely would’ve gotten his fifth loss of the season. The walk and hit totals over the last month and a half have been concerning, but luckily have not hurt the Giants too much.

Joey Votto presents the biggest challenge to the lefty, with six hits in seventeen at-bats, including one home run. Billy Hamilton and Scooter Gennett also have home runs against Bumgarner.

Since joining the Reds in May, Matt Harvey has been as inconsistent as they come. This month has been no different, as Matt Harvey has both a seven inning start and a four inning start under his belt. I’m sure you can tell which one was the worse of the two. Be that as it may, Harvey is 1-2 over his last five starts, giving up an average of 3-4 runs and 5-6 hits per game.

Buster Posey has some good history against Harvey, with five hits in eight at-bats, including two doubles and a home run. McCutchen, to no surprise, also hits Harvey pretty well. He gave up three earned runs and seven hits over four innings at AT&T Park in May.

Game Three: Suarez (4-8, 4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs. Castillo (6-10, 5.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)

Although he struggled in the first inning, Andrew Suarez maintained composure and shut down the Dodgers. Sam Dyson handed him a no decision, and the Giants offense recouped their lead to get the win. Suarez has struggled quite a bit early in a good portion of his games, with a slugging percentage of .458 in his first time through the lineup.

It’s ironic because the second time through the order, the batting average and on base percentage go up while the slugging percentage goes down. The Reds saw Suarez at AT&T Park, where he gave up four runs in the first inning, including a Duvall three-run homer. He settled down, but the Giants could not overcome the deficit.

This will be Luis Castillo‘s first career start against the Giants. Although he was more than decent last season, he has fallen off quite a bit in his sophomore year. Castillo is far more efficient at home than on the road, but has some of his worst stats again NL West teams. Much like the Reds are looking to feast on Suarez, the Giants will be doing the same for Castillo.

The only Giant he has faced in his career is Andrew McCutchen, who is 0-for-5 with two strikeouts. The Giants are marginally better at right-handed pitching, but their offensive splits have been at their worst in the month of August.

Don’t Put On the Red Light…

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If the Giants plan on coming to town and embarrassing the Reds, they need to be firing on all cylinders. The Reds aren’t putting up much of a fight with the team they have, but the Giants haven’t necessarily been fighting either, at least not in the batter’s box. Winning the series and playing spoiler against the Dodgers was huge.

However, the Giants can’t keep scoring late to salvage games and earn wins. It did not pan out too well in their last game, with McCutchen’s 3-run shot providing the only scoring. They need to score early, and take advantage of their scoring opportunities. I know I sound like a broken record, but it is what it is.

The Giants pitching cannot allow the Reds to develop any kind of momentum. Although they are without one of their top power bats, they still have ways to get earn runs. Their stress-inducing outfielder Billy Hamilton has been hitting well over the last week, but more importantly he has three stolen bases in his last six games. The entire Reds infield is pretty much an offensive threat against any pitcher.

It’s reasonable to expect the Giants to take two-out-of-three games, but let’s be realistic. If they still want a shot at both races, they need to take all three games in Cincinnati. Expect there to be some rain delays as well, with the biggest chances of thunderstorms on Friday night.