PECOTA projections have the Dodgers winning the NL West once again, and finishing with 97 wins (as last updated on March 26).
Almost everyone will pick the Dodgers to win the NL West this year, and that’s certainly understandable.
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But, I certainly don’t think they will run away with the division like they did a year ago. They didn’t make any significant improvements in the offseason, and instead they lost some good arms from their pitching staff in Darvish, Morrow and Watson.
They are already starting the season without Turner, which I think will be a big loss to that lineup. Cody Bellinger seemed to get exposed in the postseason, and you have to wonder if that continues into this season or if he’s able to adjust.
I noted at the beginning of this article that their offense had some deficiencies last year, and if those two guys can’t repeat what they did a year ago, their offense will take a big step back.
Having said that, I would still be surprised if this team doesn’t win over 90 games. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if they drop to between 92-95 wins, which would still most likely give them the division title.
Every team in the NL West will be strong this year, so that alone could add to their win totals coming down.
I didn’t pick the Dodgers last year and that came back to be pie in my face. I won’t make the same mistake this year — they are the clear favorites to win the division entering the season … gross, I know.