National League West Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

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LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 01: Los Angeles Dodgers fans react as the Houston Astros dominate the Los Angeles Dodgers in the final game of the World Series to take the championship on November 1, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. The battle between the Dodgers and Astros lasted till game seven of the best of seven series. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images) /

Our 2018 National League West Preview continue with the rival Los Angeles Dodgers who won the division a year ago and reached the World Series … where they lost.

The Dodgers won 104 games last year and won the division by 11 games over the Arizona Diamondbacks. We won’t mention how many games they were ahead of the Giants.

They went on to sweep the Diamondbacks in the NLDS, and then defeated the Chicago Cubs in five games in the NLCS.

Advancing to the World Series to face the Houston Astros, they won the first game to take a 1-0 lead. But then they blew game two, which ended up being a pivotal moment in the series.

The Astros won game three as well to take a 2-1 lead, and then the series went back-and-forth. Game five was another wild game that the Astros won 13-12.

The series was stretched to a game seven were the Dodgers fell to the Astros 5-1, robbing them of their first World Series title since 1988.

And Giants fans rejoice.

Surprisingly, the Dodgers and Giants had the same team batting average last year at .249, which was 12th best in the National League. However, the Dodgers had a .334 on-base-percentage, which ranked third in the National League.

They were also sixth in the NL in runs scored with 770.

Pitching was were they dominated last year, finishing with the best ERA in the National League at 3.38. They also had the best WHIP at 1.15, while striking out 1,549 batters in 1,444.2 innings pitched.

And it made no difference from their starters to their bullpen arms, as each ranked first in the NL in ERA.

We’ll see if this is the year they finally break their 30 year drought.

Key Additions:

Matt Kemp – In what was supposed to be a salary swap, the Dodgers unloaded several players to re-take the contract of Matt Kemp. They tried to move Kemp after the trade, but no one was willing to take on that terrible contract. Now the 33-year-old has a chance to start on Opening Day for the Dodgers. Regardless, it’s hard to imagine Kemp being on this team all year, or playing a significant role.

Chase Utley – The 39-year-old Utley somehow got a 2-year deal from the Dodgers this offseason. He is strictly here to provide a veteran presence and be a back-up on the infield.

Tom Koehler – The Dodgers signed Koehler this past offseason hoping the struggling starter could bounce back in the bullpen. But a shoulder injury now has him out indefinitely.

Key Departures:

Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Charlie Culberson – All four of these guys were sent to the Atlanta Braves in part of the money swap for Kemp. Gonzalez and Kazmir have both been released by the Braves now and are pretty much washed up at this point. McCarthy and Culberson will be tough losses as they added solid depth to the rotation and bench.

Yu Darvish – Darvish left after helping the Dodgers lose the World Series, and now he will try to do the same for the Cubs. But seriously, Darvish will be a huge loss in this rotation.

Bradon Morrow – Another former Dodger that will be playing for the Cubs this year, Morrow was crucial out of the pen last year. Part of the scrutiny Dave Roberts took in the World Series was his overuse of Morrow.

Tony Watson – The Dodgers acquired Watson at the trade deadline last year and he was great for them down the stretch and in the postseason. Now he will be great for the San Francisco Giants.

Andre Ethier – I only mention Ethier here because I thought that terrible marriage would never end. He hasn’t been a factor for years.

Curtis Granderson – Another trade deadline move for the Dodgers last year. While he had some moments, he didn’t have much of an impact for LA.

GLENDALE, AZ – MARCH 03: Justin Turner #10 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts while running off the field in the spring training game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Camelback Ranch on March 3, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /

Key Players:

Justin Turner – The 33-year-old Turner is the obvious MVP of this team to me. They’ve lost Clayton Kershaw for periods of time before and still were able to win. But I don’t know if they can do that without a healthy and productive Justin Turner in the middle of the lineup. Turner is getting up there in years, and he’s starting this season on the disabled list. We won’t see him until May, and I’m very interested to see what kind of start the Dodgers get off to without him. He’s finished in the top 10 of the NL MVP voting the past two years, but he only player 130 games last year and will be lucky to reach that mark this year. He still hit .322 with 21 home runs last year, but we could be seeing the beginning of his decline, and that’s something the Dodgers lineup cannot afford.

Clayton Kershaw – I know what I said above, but the Dodgers have to have a dominant Kershaw in the playoffs to win a World Series. He’s not all that important to the team’s regular season success, but they can’t win a playoff series or World Series without him.

Prospect to Watch:

Walker Buehler – The Dodgers have three prospects in the top 52 according to MLB, and Buehler tops that list for LA coming in at 12th overall. The former first round pick and Vanderbilt product moved all the way from High-A to Triple-A last year, posting a 3.35 ERA in 88.2 innings pitched with 125 strikeouts. He actually got a cup of coffee with the Dodgers last year making eight appearances out of the bullpen with a 7.71 ERA in 9.1 innings pitched with 12 strikeouts. He didn’t allow a run in four innings this spring, while striking out 7. That K/9 rate is off the charts. He’ll start 2018 in the minors, but he’ll be back up at some point this season either as a starter or reliever.

Predictions:

PECOTA projections have the Dodgers winning the NL West once again, and finishing with 97 wins (as last updated on March 26).

Almost everyone will pick the Dodgers to win the NL West this year, and that’s certainly understandable.

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But, I certainly don’t think they will run away with the division like they did a year ago. They didn’t make any significant improvements in the offseason, and instead they lost some good arms from their pitching staff in Darvish, Morrow and Watson.

They are already starting the season without Turner, which I think will be a big loss to that lineup. Cody Bellinger seemed to get exposed in the postseason, and you have to wonder if that continues into this season or if he’s able to adjust.

I noted at the beginning of this article that their offense had some deficiencies last year, and if those two guys can’t repeat what they did a year ago, their offense will take a big step back.

Having said that, I would still be surprised if this team doesn’t win over 90 games. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if they drop to between 92-95 wins, which would still most likely give them the division title.

Every team in the NL West will be strong this year, so that alone could add to their win totals coming down.

I didn’t pick the Dodgers last year and that came back to be pie in my face. I won’t make the same mistake this year — they are the clear favorites to win the division entering the season … gross, I know.

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