San Francisco Giants Spring Training Previews: Starting Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner:

(Insert obligatory dirtbike joke). Other than that, Madison Bumgarner’s 2017 season wasn’t all that unusual other than his 4-9 record. This was due largely in part to Bumgarner receiving very little run support last year. Let us hope that with Cain’s retirement Bumgarner doesn’t assume the mantle of getting no run support despite pitching well. His 3.32 ERA was also slighly inflated due to his smaller sample size.

In 2018, expect Bumgarner’s numbers to be more similar to what they were in 2013-2016 in which he had a winning record in each year as well as a sub-3 ERA. One can reasonably expect a lineup that now includes Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen, and Austin Jackson to get more run support for the 2014 World Series MVP which in turn will lead to more wins. Also, getting 30-something starts compared to 17 will (one can only hope) result in a lower ERA.

Of course, none of this is guaranteed. While one would expect a bounceback year from an elite pitcher who’s in his prime, nothing is for certain in this league. Perhaps the shoulder injury from last year still lingers. Or maybe he gets in a bear wrestle or something which sidelines him for a couple of months.

Other than pure statistics and numbers, there are several things Bumgarner will probably do this year:

1. He’ll probably hit a dinger or two (Opening Day against Kershaw?)
2. Him and Joe West will have a staring contest that lasts long enough to warrant a suspension on the grounds that Bumgarner violated the new pace-of-play policies.
3. He’ll yell at Yasiel Puig.
4. He’ll yell at Wil Myers.
5. He’ll grunt when he pitches.
6. He’ll blow snot-rockets (Over/under for Snot-Rocket Season Total is set at 330(roughly 10 per start)).

Johnny Cueto:

2017 was a pretty rough year for Cueto as well. Injuries and poor performance have led to question marks surrounding him in 2018. Also, his Spring got off to a rough start as the flu has set him back a couple of days.

However, I’ll be an optimist for once. I don’t think you’ll see Johnny quite at the level he was in 2016, but expect a much better year that last year. If he stays healthy, he should easily throw 200 innings which at the very least will help the bullpen. I don’t think any of us would be surprised if Johnny Cueto returns to form in 2018.

Jeff Samardzija:

I’ll keep it brief for Jeff, expect three things:

1. Lots of innings.
2. Lots of dingers.
3. An ERA around 4.

Samardzija probably has the fewest number of question marks surrounding him, but maybe he’ll surprise us (in a good way).

Chris Stratton:

Stratton was one of the few bright spots for the Giants last season. He showed that when he’s on he can be a very respectable big league pitcher. Of course, there was a Giant named Chris from a few years back who we said the same thing about.

We’ll talk more about him later, but how can we be sure that Stratton doesn’t meet the same fate as Heston? Well, the short answer is that we can’t. The long answer involves staying healthy and continuing to provide the strong performances that he delivered last year.

It would be wise to be cautious and err on the safe side with Stratton predictions. If he ends the year with a record around .500 and an ERA around 4 I think that would be more than acceptable out of a probable 4-starter. However, if he struggles, don’t be surprised if the Giants try someone different.

Ty Blach:

Blach got to pitch a lot last year due to injuries in the rotation. He showed us that he’s definitely a control pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls and relies on a solid defense coupled with not getting unlucky.

Even if Blach doesn’t get the 5th spot in the rotation, he proved last year that he is effective coming out of the bullpen and could serve as a left-handed complement to Tony Watson as Will Smith recovers from injury.

Now onto some Dark Horse candidates for the rotation headed into Spring Training

Tyler Beede:

I put Beede in the Dark Horse category simply because he has yet to pitch in a major league game. There are definitely people who have him as the favorite for the 5 spot and he very well could get it with a solid spring, but personally I’d at least start the season with experience in the form of Blach and maybe have Beede as a long relief man.

Beede’s rough 2017 which ended in injury has led to people doubting his ability to make a big contribution, but even if he starts the season in Triple-A he’s just one injury or one poor performer away from getting called up to the show. Let’s hope he’s ready should that be the case.

Derek Holland:

Holland has spent the majority of his career with the Texas Rangers where he had a couple of solid seasons. However, injuries and poor performance have now led to him fighting for a spot on a big league roster. His 7-14 record along with his 6.20 ERA last season with the White Sox doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but the Giants are giving him a shot.

It’s worth noting the luxury tax when discussing Holland because if he were to have a great spring and make it into the rotation, his contract would put them over the threshold which may force them to cut someone or trade someone with a big contract away which they probably aren’t keen on doing.

Nonetheless, I think we still have to watch out for Holland this spring. Don’t underestimate the will of a pitcher determined to resurrect his career. Also, it’s worth mentioning that Derek Holland is a left handed pitcher wearing the number 45 and we all know how that’s worked out for the Giants in the past cough cough, Dan Runzler, cough, Matt Moore.

Andrew Suarez:

Suarez is another southpaw vying for a spot in the rotation, except he’s young and doesn’t have the experience of Holland. Apparently he’s already been opening some eyes this spring, so perhaps he’ll surprise some people and nab the 5-spot.

It’s much likelier that he starts the season in Triple-A, but much like Beede if a starter goes down to injury or someone struggles, he could be the first guy to get the call.

Chris Heston:

A possible oversight in the San Francisco Giants’ off-season nostalgia trip with the return of Gregor Blanco and Hector Sanchez, Heston could worm his way into the rotation or perhaps a long relief role with an impressive spring.

No one needs to be reminded of Heston’s magical no-hitter at Citi Field in 2015. It’s also worth remembering that at one point that year Heston was forcing his way into the Rookie of the Year discussion alongside Matt Duffy and Kris Bryant. It’ll be interesting to see if Heston still possesses that filthy sinker which made him so effective at times that year.

However, the ball doesn’t move in Arizona like it does in San Francisco, so don’t be surprised if Heston ends up starting the season in Triple-A.

It is clear that while the San Francisco Giants don’t have the most solid rotation they’ve ever had headed into Spring Training, at least they have a number of options.

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If the regular season started tomorrow, I’d have Bumgarner, Cueto, Samrdzija, Stratton, and Blach comprise the rotation. I’d also have Beede in the bullpen in a long relief role as a sort of safety net if Stratton or Blach get roughed up early in outings.

Of course, there’s still a whole month of meaningless baseball to be played before the regular season starts. This month can include surprises, injuries, poor performances, ‘best shape of life’ Cinderella stories, and the rest.

Who knows, maybe the Giants are even able to convince Tim Lincecum to come back on a minor-league deal just to add a little more zest to this battle for the final spot in the rotation. However it all shakes out, it’ll be a little strange as this will likely be the first season since I think 2006 that neither Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum will be in the Giants’ starting rotation to start the year.

Next: Don't freak out if Lincecum signs with the Dodgers

How the time has flown by. Alas, we all get older and we all have to move on. In a perfect world, all five starters (whoever they may be) will have winning records, ERA’s under 4, and throw over 200 innings. As last year proved(in ways that go well beyond baseball), we don’t live in a perfect world. Expect trials, tribulations, successes, disappointments and everything in between from the starting staff this year. But never forget to hope for the best.